What To Make Of Dallas Drafting Elliott?

You’ll notice we’ve been kind of quiet at The Long Snapper the last month or so. That’s because there’s been next to nothing happening, and frankly, there are other sports around. So while we’ve been watching the cycling, football, cricket, or…whatever sport Roughing the Passer follows when he takes a break from watching Eric Ebron drop passes, the NFL’s been quietly getting on with its business, disturbing no-one.

If only. As you might have either noticed or guessed, the NFL never really shuts down. Still, you won’t be hearing too much from us over the summer unless we think of something to write about. Not much point in moaning about the saturation of coverage then contributing to it without having anything you really want to say, eh?

So what has been happening? Follow-up to the draft, mainly. There were a few shocks and stories on draft night, but it mostly veered towards “slightly unexpected”, rather than the “lay off the mushrooms” department, unless you’re Chip Kelly trading back into the first-round for a mid-round guard prospect. That said, I did find the Cowboys drafting Ezekiel Elliott at fourth overall pretty interesting.

See, I never thought the Cowboys would go running back, and I didn’t have Elliott pegged as an early pick. Now, I don’t know that much about the NFL in the grand scheme of things, but for the most part those more in the know weren’t suggesting so either.

So Why Is This Interesting?

Yeah, so far, so mildly diverting but that’s it, right? Well, it was Mike Carlson’s piece for NFL UK that made me think a bit more deeply about this. The interest is essentially because Elliott’s a running back, and all that means. We know Elliott was one of the top players in the draft, ignoring positional weighting, but we know that running back is one of the most devalued positions in the league, where it’s seen as relatively easy to get a serviceable player, and not a huge amount to be gained unless you’re getting a totally elite back.

It gets a bit more curious, too. The rookie wage scale tends to be a suppressive force, whereby players earn less than they probably would on the open market, should they hit their potential. Getting a rookie who plays to a decent level in their first year, and keeps it up for their next four, is an absolute bargain, where you’ll be investing a smaller percentage of your total salary cap in someone who provides a higher percentage of important play to your team. For example, first overall pick Jared Goff places 26th across the league in average wage per year for quarterback contracts. Ezekiel Elliott is 9th among running backs. Top ten money! And that’s at a position where you can get more than one well-paid player, unlikely at quarterback (unless you’re Philadelphia).

Why Did They Pick Him, Then?

Two years ago, Dallas had DeMarco Murray, who led the league in rushing, and in total yards from scrimmage. So, he ran a lot, and he caught a whole heap of passes. Murray racked up 2,261 yards in 2014, then took his money, went to Philadelphia, and bombed. In his place, Dallas eventually settled on Darren McFadden, who got 1,417 yards in what roughly amounted to 13-14 games after he won the job from Joseph Randle. Respectable numbers! But with Tony Romo and Dez Bryant out injured (and their replacements doing much worse than McFadden), Dallas went from three very good starters at QB, RB and WR, to an okay one and two bums.

Elliott is seen as representing the DeMarco Murray style of player. He’s a ‘three-down’ back, which means that as well as running the ball, he’s a realistic prospect to throw the ball to, and he can also pass block, helping to buy Tony Romo an extra second or two. Murray did that. McFadden and Randle? Not so much. The benefit of having a three-down back who’s a top runner is that defences have to prepare for more eventualities. If your third-down running back isn’t much of a runner, they don’t have to commit the same resources to potentially stopping them, so you free up a defensive player to cover the pass. Similarly, if they’re not much of a pass blocker, you have a better chance to get to the quarterback. Can’t catch? Don’t worry too much about having covering them out of the backfield.

So that’s the value of a three-down back, but that just explains why he’s the a highly -picked running back. That he’s very good at all three explains why he went in say, the first 16 picks, not why he went as high as 4th overall. The thing is that Dallas have invested huge amounts of resources in their offensive line. They have three first-round picks (Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick, Zack Martin), a youngster on a comparatively big deal (La’el Collins), and a couple of veterans on not that small deals (Ronald Leary, Doug Free). It’d be a bit pointless having that much invested in top run-blockers and then throwing the ball to your first read every down. The value of a three-down back reflects the general value of having a great running game. The difference between a good one and a great one? Teams were generally okay letting McFadden rack up a few yards whilst committing resources elsewhere, because they thought (often correctly) that he wouldn’t get sufficient yards to actually put the game in jeopardy, or to give Dallas momentum.

If you’ve spent all that money on an offensive line and it’s not helping you win games, it’s wasted. And if it takes the best running back to do that, so be it. McFadden might have been one of the leading rushers in the NFL last year, but that wasn’t enough. Dallas have the best offensive line in the league, they ought to have the best rushing attack every year, right?

So What’s The Problem?

Sounds simple, doesn’t it? The issue comes back to opportunity cost. A running back is always going to seem like a luxury pick, because there is the perception of so many more late-round picks or undrafted free agents doing wonders in the NFL. There is recent precedent for that perception – undrafted Arian Foster led the league in rushing in 2010, his second season in the league. Two years ago, Baltimore plucked Justin Forsett from essentially nowhere and he topped 1,250 yards. Conversely, the last highly-drafted running back was Trent Richardson, who has been an epic, epic bust. Could Dallas have not done better drafting someone who might turn into a three-down back, like Devontae Booker (4th round, Denver) or Paul Perkins (5th round, NY Giants)? Well, it would’ve been more of a risk, obviously.

Dallas’ defense is dreadful. In their pass-rush, maybe they would’ve drafted Joey Bosa if he were there, but he wasn’t. In the secondary, Jalen Ramsey was, so why not pick him? Personally, I think Ramsey is the better player, but a quick look at last year’s draft through the retrospectoscope makes that less likely: Dallas drafted Byron Jones, a sort of similar safety/cornerback hybrid (albeit a touch more in the Devon McCourty mould) last year. They’d have two identical players, one of whom would be spending the majority of his rookie contract at a less-than-ideal position. Is that also a waste of resources?

If, as it looks, there was no-one who fit in Dallas’ defensive scheme with the talent of a #4 pick there, why not trade the pick? Get the value of a fourth overall pick in other picks added together (say, a mid-first rounder and a second or third rounder). Well, that requires someone wanting to trade up. And to #4. While Tennessee ended up trading back to 8, trading up to 4 would’ve cost someone a lot, in terms of the depth they could add. Wisely, it looks as if no-one wanted to give up that much.

Sum It Up Then

I was going to rag on this pick before I started writing this piece, and I still think it looks suboptimal. That said, I’ve come round to the idea of this pick. Who else was picked early? In terms of who was available, we’ve discarded Ramsey as above. Who was next? Buckner? Not a fit in Dallas’ defense. Ronnie Stanley? Jack Conklin? Yeah, Dallas don’t need another lineman. Look at Leonard Floyd at #9 – he’s more of a 3-4 linebacker, and Dallas play a 4-3. So then you get to the second tier of cornerbacks! I don’t think that would’ve been a bad choice, but it’d be a toss-up between a generational talent at a slightly less valued position versus merely a very good talent at a more highly valued position.

Dallas were left in a weird position. Despite the opportunity cost, despite what they were (and are) giving up in terms of a high draft pick and paying top-10 wages for a running back, it’s a bizarrely safe choice. It’s a player they reckon is going to fit the system, who they can be fairly sure is going to be a success, and who is going to help make the most of what they’ve already invested.

2016 Draft! Some Later Round Fun

Following prospects in the early rounds is all well and good. But sometimes it’s the later round players who are the really interesting ones, who come out of nowhere to surprise you. You know, the Tom Brady, Richard Sherman, Antonio Brown, Josh Norman, Geno Atkins…get the idea? Other than that, you know, it’s nice to have underdogs to root for. And there are plenty of interesting stories on the third day. Also, there are some funny names here because it’s the NFL.

Vernon Adams (QB, Oregon)
Vernon Adams is the draft darling among certain NFL writers, though that may just be because I follow SI’s Doug Farrar on twitter and he just won’t shut up about him. Adams is interesting because he’s short – at 5’10” or 5’11” (depending on who you believe), he’s even shorter than (or as short as) Russell Wilson, and while height’s not everything, if you can’t see over your offensive line, it makes staying in the pocket a little harder! Luckily, Adams is an escape-merchant, seat-of-your-pants, just-gets-it-done kind of player. He plays quite like Wilson, right down to being mobile and agile, but he’s not quite as good, all told. Supposedly teams aren’t high on him, so he may or may not get drafted.
(My alternative choice here is Josh Woodrum, a QB out of Liberty.)

Matt Judon (DE, Grand Valley State)
Outside of Carson Wentz, there are a few prospects from the second tier of college football. Matt Judon is a pass-rusher who got a whopping 20 sacks last year. Sure, those were against lesser opposition than some, but he’s been fairly consistent for several years. He looks like a pass rusher, he’s athletic enough to be a pass rusher, but because no-one knows how good he actually is against top talent (even moreso than your average draft pick), he’ll probably not be picked until the later rounds. To this untrained eye, it does seem like defensive front seven is the hardest position for a smaller school prospect to get hyped at.
(Victor Ochi, a DE from Stony Brook, is your alterative pick here.)

Leonte Carroo (WR, Rutgers)
How much are teams bothered about players being linked with domestic violence? Leonte Carroo was arrested and charged with ‘simple assault’, which was at the time alleged to be violence towards a woman. Oh, except that the charges were later dropped because of the victim’s non-cooperation. Now, you can (and should) read everything into what the ramifications of that are (the NFL and college football are rife with football stars not always being taken to task for their sins), but it’s interesting. Carroo’s charges were dropped, but some teams will have taken him off their draft board. How many will play out during the draft, but Carroo could go in the 3rd round if teams are comfortable.
(You could look at Roger Lewis, a WR out of Bowling Green, for a similar if somewhat more severe case of “off the field issues”.)

Keyarris Garrett (WR, Tulsa)
Garrett was the most productive wide receiver in college football last year. He caught a cool 1600 yards worth of passes in 13 games, for 8 touchdowns. He wasn’t always up against the greatest opposition, but that’s still pretty special. Yet his draft stock isn’t huge, and he’s mentioned in around the fifth round range. Why? Well, he only ran four routes (the standard route tree for professionals starts at 8-10 and goes from there) in college, and coaches just aren’t sure he can learn any more. It’s a bit baffling, isn’t it? I know how alien American football is to me, because I’d have thought if I could learn one route, they’d all be as easy, right? Of course, it’s nowhere near that simple, but I’ve a sneaking suspicion Garrett will go to some team and catch a bunch of passes down the outside of the field.
(Your alternative pick here is Michael Thomas of Southern Mississippi (as opposed to the Michael Thomas from Ohio State, btw.))

Roberto Aguayo (K, Florida State)
Normally, kickers and punters don’t get drafted until the back end of the final day – the 6th and 7th rounds. The very best might get picked in the fifth round, but picks earlier than that tend to be met with ridicule. The perception is that both grow on trees, and there isn’t much variation between the very best and the middle of the pack. And yet. Even if the extra point hadn’t been moved back and made less automatic, Aguayo would probably have been the highest-drafted kicker since Mike Nugent was taken in the second round by Cincinnati a few years back. Now, there’s a chance he’s drafted on the second day. He’s that special a talent. He has a powerful leg (so is good for kickoffs, too), is deadly accurate and has kicked more field goals from longer than anyone else in college football these past few years. Someone is going to get the best player at their position in the NFL, on the relatively cheap.
(Aguayo’s a special enough talent that there’s no-one similar this year. No kicker, punter, long snapper, no-one.)

Adam Gotsis (DT, Georgia Tech)
International players are always interesting to look out for, if only for sort of the awareness that the NFL isn’t only of interest to America. Of course, the NFL isn’t the NBA yet, so whenever non-punters/kickers from around the world are getting drafted, it’s immensely notable. Gotsis is this year’s prospect du jour, a high effort, high-ceiling defensive lineman with a background in Australian Rules Football. As you’d expect, he’s seen as a little raw, though that’s not as much of a knock on him as teams worrying how his knee’s holding up following a cruciate ligament tear in October. We know our friends at the Woot & Wye Show down under are all in on Gotsis, and now he’s being hyped as a potential fourth- or fifth-round steal, he’s one to watch now and in the coming years as a top draft sleeper.
(Your second choice Aussie here is Utah P Tom Hackett. But Aussie punters are a little more commonplace, let’s say.)

Moritz Boehringer (WR, Schwabish Hall Unicorns)
Now HERE is the most interesting draft-eligible player in a heck of a long time. Normally, NFL prospects have been through the American college system. Occasionally, they go through the Canadian system. Boehringer, however, has spent one year playing top-flight gridiron in Germany, probably to a worse standard than some US high schools. So what’s he doing here? Well, he was pretty damn special there, and once he came over and did some athletic drills at Florida Atlantic’s pro day, a few teams that had been nudging him and mentioning they might sign him as an undrafted free agent, suddenly saw he was effectively the most athletically freakish receiver in the draft. He’s quick, agile, strong, tall, all the physical traits you look for in a wide receiver! He doesn’t know the game much, but wow the potential if he puts it all together is incredible. Nobody really knows how this is going to go, but it looks like he’ll be a day 3 pick, possibly in rounds 5 or 6. His will be a fascinating career to watch, just…don’t expect him to be playing any time soon.
(There’s no-one else like Boehringer in the draft, but keep an eye out next year for Giants’ receiver Anthony Dablé, who signed in the offseason, being too long out of school to be draft-eligible.)

Top Names

The NFL has had a tradition of fantastically-named players dating back to and before Dick Butkus in the sixties. This year isn’t a vintage year (no Barkevious Mingo, for example), but there are plenty of cool names here.

• Geronimo Allison (WR, Illinois)
• DeAndre Houston-Carson (S, William & Mary…yes, that is a real college, apparently attended by aristocrats)
• Willie Beavers (OT, Western Michigan)
• Silverberry Mouhon (DE, Cincinnati…are you kidding me?! Silverberry Mouhon?!)
• Vincent Valentine (DT, Nebraska…this one’s only for fans of Final Fantasy VII, I admit)
• Wendell Smallwood (RB, West Virginia)
• De’Runnya Wilson (WR, Mississippi State…why oh why isn’t he a running back?)
• Weston Steelhammer (S, Air Force…with a name like that he really ought to be a lineman)
• Cassanova McKinzy (LB, Auburn)
• Ka’imi Fairbarn (K, UCLA…full name John Christian Ka’iminoeauloameka’ikeokekumupa’a Fairbairn)
• Scooby Wright (LB, Arizona)

Despite the late hour, we’re fully intending to (semi-drunkenly) livetweet the first round of the draft tomorrow night, so head on over to our page on Twitter and get ye following.

2016 Draft! Who To Look Out For

Two days to go! Woo! So, you’ve got an idea what positions your team might be looking to fill in the draft, and who might fit that bill. But the draft isn’t the draft if you don’t have someone to root for, be they an underdog, an outsider, or just your top pick of choice. So, here’s a quick guide to twelve or so players to keep an eye out for all through the first few rounds of the draft, so when you wake up Friday/Saturday morning, you can go and have a look straight away for where they got drafted.

Early Picks
These are the players I expect to be the first seven off the board.

Carson Wentz (QB, North Dakota State) and Jared Goff (QB, California)
Here are your first two overall picks. We know Los Angeles gave up a bucketload of picks to choose whichever of these they want. We know Philadelphia gave up…slightly fewer picks to choose whichever of these Los Angeles don’t want. We can even speculate that Los Angeles want Goff (as he’s more of a pro-ready starter, which they need) and Philly want Wentz (as they have other half-decent quarterbacks they can start while Wentz gets up to speed without doing too badly). But no-one really knows what’s going to happen until Roger Goodell wanders up on stage in Chicago and announces “With the first pick of the 2016 NFL Draft…”
Where will they be picked: 1st and 2nd overall, I already told you.

Laremy Tunsil (OT, “Ole Miss” – Mississippi)
Here, arguably, is the best player in the draft. Well, it’s between him and Jalen Ramsey, more of which anon. Tunsil is a “franchise left tackle”, so he’s going to be expected to be able to block pass rushers and protect the quarterback on their blind side, and he’s going to be expected to be bloody good at it. Left tackle is one of the highest valued positions in the league, so having potentially one of the best players at the position there? That’s big.
Where will he be picked: Probably 3rd overall, though in theory he could last until the 6th pick.

Jalen Ramsey (CB/S, Florida State)
Probably the second best player in the draft, Ramsey could well become the best safety in the league, but he could also become one of the best cornerbacks. He also seems to be pretty cool. The only slight knock on him is that some teams aren’t sold that he’d become an elite cornerback, though all seem to think he’ll become an elite safety, and safety just isn’t seen as valuable a position as cornerback.
Where will he be picked: Possibly 3rd overall, but he’ll almost certainly go in the top 5 picks.

Joey Bosa (DE, Ohio State)
Bosa’s a talented pass rusher they suspect will be stout against the run, too. Expect him to be drafted to play defensive end in a 4-3, or outside linebacker in a 3-4. People doubt he has the capacity to be the very best in the NFL, but he’s expected to at least be very good, and is unlikely to be a bust.
Where will he be picked: My guess is he goes 4th, and definitely by 8th.

DeForest Buckner (DE, Oregon)
People rate Bosa over Buckner, but Buckner could easily be picked first. He’s a bigger unit than Bosa, and would play as a defensive end in a 3-4. He’s a damn good pass rusher and better run stopper, and incredibly versatile – you could even stick him at nose tackle if you wanted.
Where will he be picked: Probably between 5th and 7th overall.

Myles Jack (LB, UCLA)
Jack is probably the third best player in the draft, an incredibly athletic linebacker who it sometimes seems could play any position on the entire field. Like Jalen Ramsey, his primary position (in this case linebacker) is slightly devalued these days. That isn’t the main knock on Jack, however. He’s recovering from a torn cruciate ligament, and teams aren’t sure how much he’ll play in his rookie season. More than that, there have been numerous reports of teams mumbling about a non-specific “knee condition” that could limit the overall length of his career. While technically you’re only drafting players for the first four or five years of their career, now is the time to find any doubts you might have about a player.
Where will he be picked: It all depends on what teams think of his knees. He could easily go 4th overall, or could slide all the way to the middle of the first round.

Late 1st Round to 3rd Round Picks
These players I find interesting, for various reasons. Some might have slipped for various reasons, some might be suddenly hyped, but here are your potential wonderful pickups or utter busts, I suspect.

Cardale Jones (QB, Ohio State) and Christian Hackenberg (QB, Penn State)
These are two fascinating prospects. Hackenberg was the #1 recruit in all college football a few years back, and looked good in his freshman year. Then his coach (Bill O’Brien) left, the system changed and everything went wrong. Jones is full of potential, has an incredibly powerful arm and build, but has been a backup for most of his college career, except for coming in at the last minute in 2014, and guiding Ohio State to the college playoff title playing fantastically. Then he was average starting in 2015, and got benched for a safer, dual-threat alternative. Both these two are unpolished gems who a bit of nurturing could work wonders for, but that is far from guaranteed. And nurturing quarterbacks for a while before giving them the huddle isn’t tremendously common these days. A pair of real curate’s eggs.
Where will they be picked: Between the middle of the 2nd round and the end of the 3rd, though if one slips to something like the 5th or 6th it would be surprising but understandable.

Braxton Miller (WR, Ohio State)
Speaking of Ohio State quarterbacks, it was Miller’s injury in 2014 that started to pave the way for Cardale Jones. But, you ask, you just said he was a wide receiver! Exactly. Miller is an incredible athlete, but as a quarterback only looked so-so in terms of NFL fit. He transitioned to wide receiver, where he is raw and needs development (particularly on his route running), but is spectacularly fast and agile. The thing is, he’s more of a multi-purpose weapon, and players like that in the NFL recently (Percy Harvin, Tavon Austin, Cordarelle Patterson) haven’t necessarily always hit their potential. So teams may be wary.
Where will he be picked: You know, I reckon Braxton Miller will go sometime in the latter half of the 2nd round, or early in the 3rd at the latest.

Derrick Henry (RB, Alabama)
Here’s the winner of the Heisman Trophy, aka the best player in college football. He’s not the top rated running back in the draft though. Why? Well, running backs tend to be about 6 feet tall, nimble, and with a low running style. Henry is about 6’3”, and athletic but freakin’ huge, built like a linebacker, and he runs upright. Running backs built like that have long been out of style, and an upright running style is a great way to end up on injured reserve. But, he’s the best player in college football. Surely that counts for something? Well, I guess his draft position will demonstrate how much.
Where will he be picked: Henry could go late in the 1st round, but early-2nd round seems more likely.

Robert Nkemdiche (DT, Ole Miss)
Here’s where we get to the “off-the-field issues” and “red flags” portion of the draft, where anonymous and not-so-anonymous scouts, evaluators, and team officials get to slag off players they don’t like. The process has some merit in, say, trying not to draft Greg Hardy, but over here in Britain, divorced from but aware of the social context of football, it often looks to me like well-to-do middle-aged white guys saying that young black guys have the wrong personality. In truth, Robert Nkemdiche – while he does have those issues (falling out of a fourth-floor window and having marijuana found in your apartment is…well it’s something, isn’t it? Except for the weed) and is apparently of an unusual personality for a pro football prospect – is also drifting because, for all his athletic prowess, didn’t have as high college production as he could. He got near the quarterback a lot more often than he sacked the quarterback, which makes teams almost as nervous as the fact he plays the saxophone, or something like that.
Where will he be picked: This’ll be a fascinating one. He could go in the middle of the 1st round, and should be gone by the end of it, but could slide towards late in the 2nd round easily.

Noah Spence (DE, Eastern Kentucky)
Where Nkemdiche’s personality issues are that he’s a kind of unusual (and the falling out the window thing), Noah Spence has already been kicked off one team (Ohio State, 2013), been suspended for repeated failed drugs tests (2014, ecstasy, no less) and been arrested for public intoxication (2015, public intoxication? OH NOES). He’s got the ability, and the production (albeit against slightly lesser opposition) to look terrific, but given the price of a first round pick, teams unsurprisingly get nervous about every little thing, and this is a little more than every little thing.
Where will he be picked: Despite all this, Spence will probably be picked between the late 1st round and mid-2nd round.

Mackensie Alexander (CB, Clemson)
Now this is a weird one to finish off our little “off-field issues” section. Alexander has, by all accounts, never done anything wrong. I can’t find any arrests, notable suspensions, nothing. I can find a few knocks on Alexander, such as he’s only 5’10”, and he didn’t get any college interceptions (though this might be because his coverage was so good, no bugger was throwing in his direction), but that’s it. So why all this? Well, as far as I can tell some teams have interviewed him and come off with the impression that he’s a bit of an arsehole. I guess you don’t want to create locker room headaches, but if you’re a good coach you should be able to control a locker room no matter what. Alexander seems smart, erudite and excessively feisty, but he’s a fucking cornerback. Of course he’s all that. Honestly, people.
Where will he be picked: He has the talent to go in the top 16 picks, so if one team thinks he’s not a problem, they will pick him. However, he could just as easily be around for that team’s 2nd round pick.

Carl Nassib (DE, Penn State)
Concerns with Nassib are sort of the opposite of, say, Robert Nkemdiche. He lead college football in sacks. He won roughly eighty-six awards for generally being brilliant this last year. He might not even get picked on the second day of the draft. It’s weird. NFL and college football are different though, and Nassib is seen as athletically somewhat limited. What “they” say is that he’s filled out his body, and he’s not going to get any more terrifying. But he’s regarded as such a hard worker, bulking up hugely at college to get in the team, then bursting through and showing what he’s made of. Where he goes is again interesting, because it’ll be a team picking production over potential.
Where will he be picked: Realistically, he’s a 2nd round pick because someone will have fallen in love with his tape. He could drift to the 3rd if teams think they can snag him there, though.

Artie Burns (CB, Miami (FL))
So, Artie Burns is a good cornerback who’ll be picked on the second day, and will probably be a good draft pick. So far, so unremarkable, right? Why am I writing about him? Well, the NFL draft will be full of what you call “human interest” stories, so here’s one to get yourself acquainted with. As this story from Bleacher Report says, after his Mum died of a heart attack and his Dad was sent to prison, suddenly young Artie not only had his own son to provide financially for, but also two younger brothers. Players in college football don’t get paid (this is a stupid system in many many ways, none of which I will touch on here), so his only option was to declare for the draft and get that rookie contract. And I hope he makes it and everything’s ok!
Where will he be picked: He’s a second round choice, probably edging towards the second half than the first half, though you never know, he could end up going late in the first round to a cornerback needy team that thinks he’s the bees knees.

Draft Tipper: NFC and AFC West

The West divisions had the Super Bowl winners, arguably the best team not to make the Super Bowl last year, and two other teams that won a playoff game. They also, thanks to a somewhat lopsided trade, have the team picking first overall.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

They pick: 29th overall
They need: 3-4 Defensive End, Center, Offensive Tackle, 3-4 Inside Linebacker

Who might they go for in the first round? Robert Nkemdiche would be a very Arizona pick here, and Jarran Reed may still be on the board at defensive end. At center, Ryan Kelly may be available, as may an offensive tackle like Taylor Decker and Germain Ifedi. This may not be the perfect spot for a linebacker either. Don’t be surprised if Arizona take a best player available here, as they have a fairly well-stacked roster at the moment.

In the second round? Austin Johnson, Jonathan Bullard, Adolphus Washington and Jihad Ward are possible options at defensive end, and Nick Martin is an option at center. Arizona need a right tackle, so Le’Raven Clark and Shon Coleman are possible options. At linebacker, Scooby Wright, Su’a Cravens and Beniquez Brown are options, and this is another team that could get the idea to draft Jaylon Smith while he recovers from injury.

Los Angeles Rams

They pick: 1st overall (no 2nd round pick)
They need: Quarterback, Wide Receiver, Tight End, Center

Who might they go for in the first round? They’re going to be picking either Carson Wentz or Jared Goff. Why else would you give up two first-round picks, two second-round picks and two third-round picks? It is lucky that the three biggest positions of need for LA are either traditional mid-or-late-round targets (tight end and center) or a position well-known for producing late-round gems (wide receiver).

San Francisco 49ers

They pick: 7th overall
They need: Quarterback, Wide Receiver, 3-4 Outside Linebacker, 3-4 Inside Linebacker

Who might they go for in the first round? In truth San Francisco have way more needs than that, but let’s keep it simple. We can be fairly certain now that Carson Wentz and Jared Goff will go in the first two overall picks, so the only possible quarterback for San Francisco is Paxton Lynch. There aren’t any highly-rated wide receivers you’d pick here. If Joey Bosa slips to this pick, he’d be a good pick here, as would Myles Jack. Really though, San Francisco could pick almost any position and it wouldn’t be a bad pick, so wide-ranging are their needs.

In the second round? Connor Cook may still be on the board at quarterback here. There should be plenty of wide receivers too – a slot weapon or generic big target would be the logical pick, so Corey Coleman, Michael Thomas and Tyler Boyd would all make sense. A pass-rushing linebacker like Kamalei Correa or Yannick Ngakoue would be a decent option, as may Noah Spence and Shilique Calhoun. At inside linebacker, look at Scooby Wright and Beniquez Brown.

Seattle Seahawks

They pick: 26th overall
They need: Offensive Tackle, Offensive Guard, Center, 4-3 Linebacker

Who might they go for in the first round? This is a pointless exercise with Seattle even moreso than other teams. Seattle go their own way, do weird things that baffle everyone, and they generally work out. So I can say “Seattle need to stop dicking around and sort out their offensive line” and they will devote all their picks to defense and flick V’s at me while they’re at it. Nonetheless, if they want to sort out their O-Line, then Taylor Decker, Germain Ifedi, Jason Spriggs, Cody Whitehair and Ryan Kelly slot in at various points along the line. I refuse to consider a linebacker because SORT THAT GOD DAMN OFFENSIVE LINE OUT GUYS SERIOUSLY.

In the second round? Plenty of ‘projects’ here. Le’Raven Clark and Shon Coleman are good bets at tackle. Joshua Garnett and Vadal Alexander are options at guard. Nick Martin would fill the hole at center left when Max Unger was traded. This is decent range for a 4-3 linebacker, however, so Deion Jones, Kyler Fackrell and even Scooby Wright are options here.
AFC West

Denver Broncos

They pick: 31st overall
They need: Quarterback, Offensive Guard, 3-4 Defensive End, 3-4 Inside Linebacker

Who might they go for in the first round? It’s so weird that the Super Bowl winners need a quarterback, but here we are. Connor Cook is a prime candidate for a draft day slide and may well be available here if Denver want him. I’d say it’s a bit rich for Cody Whitehair at guard, though like Seattle, Denver have a strong need here. A tackle like Germain Ifedi may be a candidate to be converted to guard in the short term, at least. At defensive end, Robert Nkemdiche has potential but also non-specific ‘personality issues’ so may be available here. Austin Johnson, Jonathan Bullard and Chris Jones may be options, too. There isn’t really a linebacker in range here unless Reggie Ragland slides. It’s a bit of a quandary for Denver, all told.

In the second round? A quarterback ‘project’ like Cardale Jones, Dak Prescott or Christian Hackenberg is a possible pick here, though none of those are anywhere near ready to start immediately. At guard, Cody Whitehair and Joshua Garnett are options, as well as a tackle to be converted like Le’Raven Clark. At defensive end, Adolphus Washington, Jihad Ward and Bronson Kaufusi are options. At linebacker, look out for Beniquez Brown and Scooby Wright.

Kansas City Chiefs

They pick: 28th overall
They need: Wide receiver, 3-4 Defensive End, 3-4 Inside Linebacker, Safety

Who might they go for in the first round? There’ll likely be a wide receiver to put alongside Jeremy Maclin around, like Corey Coleman, Will Fuller or Michael Thomas. Big defensive ends like Chris Jones and Jonathan Bullard are options. At inside linebacker, they’ll have to hope Reggie Ragland slides if they want him. Kansas City will have their pick of safeties to replace Hussain Abdullah – Karl Joseph, Vonn Bell and Keanu Neal may all be on the board.

In the second round? Wide receivers at the back end of the second round may include Sterling Shepard and Pharoh Cooper, both of whom look like nifty slot receivers. I don’t think they’ll go for Braxton Miller, mind you. See the Denver entry for defensive ends (Washington, Ward, Kaufusi) and linebacker (Brown, Wright), though also keep an eye out for Jaylon Smith, but safeties like Su’a Cravens, TJ Green and Darian Thompson may be under consideration.

Oakland Raiders

They pick: 14th overall
They need: Defensive Tackle, Defensive End, Inside Linebacker, Safety

Who might they go for in the first round? Oakland have built well over the last few years, and aren’t so hamstrung by their needs as to have to pass up on better talents. There are a heck of a lot of good defensive tackles around though, so if Oakland want a Sheldon Rankins or A’Shawn Robinson, they should fill their boots. I’ve put defensive end as a need, so Shaq Lawson and Emmanuel Ogbah are in play, but if Bruce Irvin is going to play there full-time (as opposed to at linebacker) that’s less of a need. Linebacker remains a need though, so keep an eye out for Reggie Ragland. I wonder if Oakland might not pick somewhere that’s as much of a need in this first round though – keep an eye out for Ezekiel Elliott to go to Oakland if he’s still on the board.

In the second round? There are tons of defensive tackles, like Vernon Butler, Andrew Billings, Kenny Clark, Adolphus Washington, I could go on. Plenty of defensive ends, too: Noah Spence, Kevin Dodd, Shilique Calhoun, Carl Nassib. Linebackers? Again, Beniquez Brown and Scooby Wright are the realistic choices, though safety may end up being a better option if one of Keanu Neal, Vonn Bell or Karl Joseph is still on the board.

San Diego Chargers

They pick: 3rd overall
They need: Offensive tackle, 3-4 Defensive End, 3-4 Outside Linebacker, Safety

Who might they go for in the first round? The best player in the draft. If they think that’s Laremy Tunsil (tackle), Jalen Ramsey (safety), DeForest Buckner (end) or Joey Bosa (would probably play outside linebacker), all would fit. I think Tunsil and Ramsey are the most likely, but there’s no denying the two teams trading up for quarterbacks has worked out utterly perfectly for San Diego.

In the second round? As well as a tackle like Germain Ifedi or Jason Spriggs, 3-4 ends like Austin Johnson, Jonathan Bullard and co will be around, as will some pass-rushers like Kamalei Correa and Noah Spence. Most of the top safeties (Neal, Bell, Joseph) will still be available too. But, even though their record was terrible last year, I can see San Diego filling a position of slightly lesser need with one of the best players still available.

Draft Tipper: NFC and AFC South

Until a week or so ago, I’d have been writing about the first overall pick in this post. Now…not so much. The South is an interesting division with a few ascending underdogs, a few declining powers looking to get back to glory days, all interesting.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

They pick: 17th overall
They need: Tight End, Offensive Guard, 4-3 Defensive End, Safety

Who might they go for in the first round? I don’t think tight end is in play here, though guard may be if they decide Jack Conklin, Taylor Decker (tackles) or Ryan Kelly (center) are ideal to be converted to guard. At 4-3 defensive end, Shaq Lawson and Emmanuel Ogbah are worth consideration. None of the safeties are really in play in this range, and indeed this doesn’t look like an amazing spot for Atlanta’s needs in general. If they don’t trade up or down, they may go for a best player available, particularly if that player is a 4-3 linebacker like Darron Lee or Reggie Ragland, or a corner that slides like William Jackson.

In the second round? Tight ends are definitely in play here – Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper both look like mid-second round picks. At guard, Cody Whitehair and Joshua Garnett are the pure guards, while Germain Ifedi and Le’Raven Clark are convertible tackles. At defensive end, Kevin Dodd and Carl Nassib are feasible. At safety, Vonn Bell may be available, while Jeremy Cash and and Karl Joseph probably will be.

Carolina Panthers

They pick: 30th overall
They need: Running Back, Offensive Tackle, Safety, Cornerback

Who might they go for in the first round? Derrick Henry would be the choice at running back here. At tackle, Germain Ifedi and Jason Spriggs are expected to go at around this point, and Taylor Decker could feasibly slide this far. At safety, Keanu Neal and Vonn Bell are realistic options. Even before Josh Norman’s release, Carolina would arguably have targeted cornerbacks like Eli Apple and Mackensie Alexander, who could well still be around at this pick.

In the second round? Devontae Booker may slide this far, and to be honest running backs after him could go in almost any order. Let’s say, CJ Prosise and Kenneth Dixon are the most likely to go here if Booker’s gone (though both could be available with Carolina’s 3rd round pick). At tackle, Le’Raven Clark may still be on the board, as may Shon Coleman. Safeties like Karl Joseph, Darian Thompson and Jeremy Cash might be on the board, and at cornerback, Artie Burns and Zack Sanchez are options.

New Orleans Saints

They pick: 12th overall
They need: Offensive Guard, 4-3 Defensive Tackle, 4-3 Defensive End, 4-3 Linebacker

Who might they go for in the first round? Converting a tackle like Jack Conklin to guard might appeal here, though I’m not 100% sold on that idea. There are plenty of 4-3 defensive tackles this year, with Sheldon Rankins, Jarran Reed and A’Shawn Robinson being in play with this pick. At defensive end, Shaq Lawson and Emmanuel Ogbah have been mentioned. I’m not sold on this being the spot to draft a linebacker, but if the Saints love Reggie Ragland or Darron Lee, maybe they will.

In the second round? The usual list of guards and convertible tackles (see the Atlanta section) are in play, as are defensive tackles like Vernon Butler, Andrew Billings, Kenny Clark, Adolphus Washington…heck, there’s huge defensive tackle depth this year. At end, Carl Nassib and Kevin Dodd may be under consideration. At linebacker, Scooby Wright, Su’a Cravens and Kamalei Correa are options, as is Jaylon Smith, if New Orleans have enough confidence in his recovery.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

They pick: 9th overall
They need: Center, Defensive End, Safety, Cornerback

Who might they go for in the first round? I’ve put “defensive end” rather than stating 3-4 or 4-3 here because it looks like Tampa will play both at various times, even moreso than most times, though with a slight preference for a 3-4. So, if DeForest Buckner slips to their pick that’ll be perfect. Otherwise, Tampa will target a cornerback like Vernon Hargreaves. In truth, Tampa’s biggest needs don’t quite fit their draft spot, so don’t be surprised by either a trade, or a best player relatively irrespective of position pick.

In the second round? Ryan Kelly may be gone at center by now, and this is too high for Nick Martin, so don’t expect a center. Robert Nkemdiche might be an interesting surprise pick for defensive end, though Noah Spence and Shilique Calhoun might be preferable if available. Most safeties will be available here, so keep an eye out for Keanu Neal, Karl Joseph and Vonn Bell. Cornerbacks like Xavien Howard and possibly Mackensie Alexander might also be in contention for the pick.

AFC South

Houston Texans

They pick: 22nd overall
They need: Wide receiver, Center, 3-4 Defensive End, Safety

Who might they go for in the first round? A deep threat or slot receiver would make a great complement to DeAndre Hopkins, so Houston may consider Will Fuller and Corey Coleman. Ryan Kelly’s the only center worth first round consideration, so a big unit to put opposite JJ Watt may appeal more, like a Robert Nkemdiche or an A’Shawn Robinson. This might be a bit rich for a safety here, but maybe a Keanu Neal might be in play.

In the second round? Michael Thomas and Tyler Boyd would work at wide receiver, and Sterling Shepard will be in play if they want someone to play the slot. At center, Nick Martin may be in this range. Jonathan Bullard may fill that 3-4 defensive end role. More likely, Houston will have a bevy of safeties to choose from, such as Karl Joseph, Darian Thompson and KJ Dillon.

Indianapolis Colts

They pick: 18th overall
They need: Offensive guard, Center, 3-4 Outside Linebacker, 3-4 Inside Linebacker

Who might they go for in the first round? In truth it could be anyone along the offensive line, so Taylor Decker is in play as a tackle/guard, as is Ryan Kelly, a center who Indy could try at guard if they were so inclined. Pass rush and linebackers in general are a must, so people like Emmanuel Ogbah, Shaq Lawson, Reggie Ragland and Darron Lee should all be under consideration.

In the second round? Pure guards like Cody Whitehair and Joshua Garnett may be as tempting as a tackle you can convert, like Germain Ifedi or Le’Raven Clark. Or, as with Houston, Nick Martin at center. Second-level pass rushers like Kamalei Correa and Yannick Ngakoue are in play with this pick, or maybe a more versatile player like Kyler Fackrell, or an inside linebacker like Scooby Wright or Beniquez Brown.

Jacksonville Jaguars

They pick: 5th overall
They need: Offensive Guard, 4-3 Defensive End, 4-3 Linebacker, Safety

Who might they go for in the first round? Another year, another top-5 pick for the Jags. With Jalen Ramsey likely gone, Jacksonville will most likely pick either Joey Bosa (defensive end) or Myles Jack (linebacker). DeForest Buckner is another potential choice, though opinions vary on whether he’d be the best choice for a 4-3 defense. That said, Jacksonville may just go for “best non-QB available”, just in case Laremy Tunsil or the aforementioned Ramsey are inexplicably still on the board at #5.

In the second round? If Jacksonville want a guard, Cody Whitehair is in play, and potentially they could convert Germain Ifedi to guard. At end, the likes of Noah Spence and Kevin Dodd might be considered. This isn’t an amazing spot for linebacker, being too high for the likes of Deion Jones and Scooby Wright, but with Reggie Ragland likely gone. Jaylon Smith is unlikely too, given uncertainty surrounding his injury and the fact Jacksonville need players now. So, the top safety may be feasible – players like Keanu Neal, Karl Joseph and Vonn Bell may all still be available.

Tennessee Titans

They pick: 15th overall (1st round), 33rd overall, 43rd overall, 45th overall (2nd round)
They need: Offensive Tackle, 3-4 Defensive Tackle, Safety, Cornerback

Who might they go for in the first round? Well well well, that trade with Los Angeles certainly changed the way Tennessee’s going be drafting. Their first round pick puts them in a great place to draft a top right tackle, like Jack Conklin or Taylor Decker. A big nose tackle like A’Shawn Robinson or Jarran Reed would help against the run. A cornerback like William Jackson would also fill a position of need.

In the second round? Three second round picks is a great way to build instant depth and provide multiple future starters. Don’t be surprised if one of these is a risky pick, what with the stake being lower. Tackles like Germain Ifedi, Jason Spriggs and Le’Raven Clark are all possible picks. If they want a nose tackle, Vernon Butler, Kenny Clark, Chris Jones, Adolphus Washington, Hassan Ridgeway…there are a few options, and several of those can shift out to 3-4 end when needed too. The safety selection will likely be as with Jacksonville – Neal, Bell, Joseph and maybe KJ Dillon. The cornerback cupboard might be a little more bare, with Xavien Howard, Mackensie Alexander and Artie Burns possible picks.

 

The Checkdown: Blockbuster Trades

Welcome to this week’s Checkdown! You might have heard a few things about trades for draft picks this week…you didn’t? Understandable, they kind of drifted under the radar. It’s less than a week til the draft now, so don’t be surprised that this is all that’s happening.

Looking At That Rams-Titans Trade

The LA Rams traded with Tennessee to gain the first overall pick of the 2016 draft last week, with MMQB revealing how an arbitrary pairing of Rams and Titans brass at the combine culminated in the “transaction’s consummation in the cab of a pickup truck”. SB Nation’s Dan Kadar says the Titans have gained numerous top 76 picks to support the development of Mariota and co, whilst “for the Rams, this is a monumental risk” as they try to pair their second year star running back Todd Gurley with a franchise QB. If the new QB doesn’t deliver, it will “likely mean the end of head coach Jeff Fisher and general manager Les Snead’s time with the franchise”. Kadar’s colleague Thomas George says the choice between Goff and Wentz will come down to who can help “the Rams to get over the top and become significant” sooner, which points to Goff.

As NFL.com’s Chris Wesseling comments, the Rams had no choice. “The goal of every NFL team is to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, not flirt with the .500 threshold for an entire generation”, and with the QB more important then ever, it is “increasingly difficult to find a franchise quarterback outside the draft’s top few picks”. The riskier move would have been to leave an otherwise talented roster with a sub-par QB.

ESPN’s Bill Barnwell is less enthusiastic for “a team with a subpar offensive line, major question marks at receiver, and holes in the secondary”, but concedes it’s defensible for LA. It is however, “a stunning haul for Tennessee”, gaining a huge amount of draft capital. Other big beneficiaries are other teams with high picks who already have their QBs – San Diego, Jacksonville and Baltimore all look set to have a bigger pool of non-QBs to choose from.

Wait, The Eagles Got The Second Pick Too?

This situation only improved for these teams when Philadelphia traded with Cleveland for the second pick. USA Today’s Jarrett Bell approves of the terms for the Browns, forecasting that neither Goff nor Wentz will be elite level in the league. Barnwell agrees, as the Browns will have an enormous amount of draft picks this year and next – whilst “the Eagles did something that would charitably qualify as aggressive and could very well go down as foolish”, seeing as they don’t even know who’ll be there at 2. It also leave current QB Sam Bradford as a “lame-duck”, with millions of dollars tied up in guarantees to him. Rodger Sherman agrees, claiming the Eagles aren’t really sure what they’re doing, “going all in on the guy another NFL team is turning down”, and this is just the latest in Philadelphia’s chaotic QB choices of the last 2 years. Mind you, as SI’s Chris Burke says, this draft is crazy town, and “Philadelphia could trade back down if it doesn’t want the QB left at 2”.

Josh Norman, Non-Panther

The Panthers cut ties with star cornerback Josh Norman, releasing him from his franchise tag. Bleacher Report’s Gary Davenport says Norman’s age and wage demands were just too big to swallow, and one stellar campaign doesn’t command the same that “the resume that a Darrelle Revis or Richard Sherman does”. Black and Blue Review’s Bill Voth concurs – Norman may well have been a distraction to the squad as he sat out, and the Panthers had a lower limit than Norman would like, as “Gettleman builds from the inside out, so cornerbacks aren’t as valuable as big linemen and pass rushers.” Washington and San Francisco are believed to be front runners, with the former having already offered a contract.

Finally, this was a great read regarding the QB draft of 1971, when the analytics and scouting processes were…. a bit less refined.

Draft Tipper: NFC and AFC East

So, our tips for the North divisions were out of date within a day! But they’ve been updated and we’re just in time to talk about Philadelphia’s new position, and guess at players who may be drafted across the NFC East and AFC East. What do you all think of this? Why not get in touch with us on Twitter with your thoughts. And if you’re not sure about what any of the positions mean, you’ll find plenty of information on what position does what in our Glossary.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

The pick: 4th overall
They need: Wide Receiver, 4-3 Defensive End, 4-3 Linebacker, Cornerback

Who might they go for in the first round? There are only really four players in likely play if Dallas pick at 4 and don’t trade – Joey Bosa and DeForest Buckner would be edge rushers (though I have seen that people have doubts about whether Buckner would work in a 4-3 defense), Myles Jack at linebacker and Jalen Ramsey at cornerback/safety. At least two of those players will still be available at that point.

In the second round? Any receiver that slips to the second round is in play to take up the slot across from Dez Bryant – so, Corey Coleman, Will Fuller and Michael Thomas are the likely choices. Pass rushers like Kevin Dodd or Noah Spence (if he slides) will also be in play. There aren’t really any linebackers in this range, unless Darron Lee slides, but cornerbacks like Xavien Howard, and maybe Eli Apple or Mackensie Alexander could be around. Also start keeping an eye out for running backs here – Derrick Henry might be the pick here.

New York Giants

They pick: 10th overall
They need: Wide Receiver, Offensive Tackle, 4-3 Linebacker, Safety

Who might they go for in the first round? People would see it as a reach, but Laquon Treadwell is the kind of wide receiver they’re looking for. At tackle, if Ronnie Stanley’s still on the board they’d be delighted, but I suspect Jack Conklin is more realistic. There likely aren’t any linebackers and safeties suitable for picking here, so the Giants may go for a best player available approach.

In the second round? This is the sort of range for Michael Thomas, Braxton Miller and Tyler Boyd, depending on what kind of wide receiver they want. At tackle, they may be able to get Germain Ifedi, but Jason Spriggs and Le’Raven Clark are more realistic. Linebackers like Kamalei Correa and Scooby Wright are pickable here, as are most safeties: Vonn Bell, Karl Joseph and Keanu Neal are all in play.

Philadelphia Eagles

They pick: 2nd overall (no second round pick)
They need: Quarterback, Running back, Offensive Guard, 4-3 Linebacker

Who might they go for in the first round? Philadelphia sure love a pick merry-go-round. They gave up their second round pick to the Rams last year to snag Sam Bradford, and yet here we are again, giving up one future first- and one future second-round pick (as well as this year’s third-rounder) to trade with the Browns for another quarterback. Obviously the Rams have the first pick, but you would hope for the Eagles’ sake that they knew before making the trade which of the two quarterbacks Los Angeles will go for, and it wasn’t the one they wanted. My guess would be that, if the Eagles haven’t just blindly traded up not knowing who’ll be left, it means the Rams want the more pro-ready Goff, while the Eagles want a succession plan in place for Carson Wentz (who would ideally sit and learn for a little while first) to eventually take over from either Sam Bradford or Chase Daniel.

Washington

They pick: 21st overall
They need: Center, 3-4 Defensive End, 3-4 Inside Linebacker, Cornerback

Who might they go for in the first round? Ryan Kelly’s the only center in play here. They may go for A’Shawn Robinson, Jarran Reed, or even Robert Nkemdiche at defensive end. Reggie Ragland is probably the only linebacker in play here. At cornerback, Washington can look at Mackensie Alexander, William Jackson and Eli Apple, at least one of whom you’d think will be available.

In the second round? Nick Martin is the second-best center in the draft, and would fit here. At defensive end, Hassan Ridgeway, Jihad Ward and Adolphus Washington are pickable here. I hope they go for Washington because of the name synergy! At linebacker, here’s a chance to take a punt on Jaylon Smith, but otherwise Su’a Cravens, Kamalei Correa and Kyler Fackrell may be considered. At corner, Kendall Fuller may be another ‘take a punt’ candidate, while Artie Burns should also be on the board.

EDIT: Well, since Washington have signed Josh Norman to a five-year contract, I don’t expect them to go for cornerback in the first couple of rounds now – having Norman and Breeland there should allow them to focus on other areas.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

They pick: 19th overall
They need: Wide receiver, Offensive Guard, 4-3 Defensive End, 4-3 Linebacker

Who might they go for in the first round? It’s possible no wide receivers will have gone by the time the Bills are on the clock, so Donald Trump-endorser Rex Ryan will have his pick of Laquon Treadwell, Corey Coleman, Will Fuller and Josh Doctson. Defensive ends like Shaq Lawson, Emmanuel Ogbah and Noah Spence are in play here. For linebackers, this is about where you’d expect to see Reggie Ragland picked.

In the second round? They’d be delighted if Michael Thomas is still available, but realistically Tyler Boyd, Braxton Miller and maybe even Pharoh Cooper are more realistic. The top guard, Cody Whitehair will be in play, and there are a few defensive ends like Carl Nassib and Jihad Ward around. At linebacker, Jaylon Smith may be tempting, but if they want someone to contribute this year, Su’a Cravens and Kamalei Correa are more realistic.

Miami Dolphins

They pick: 13th overall
They need: Running back, Offensive Guard, 4-3 Defensive End, Cornerback

Who might they go for in the first round? By trading with Philadelphia, they have less chance of landing Ezekiel Elliott now, and there aren’t really any guards realistic with this pick, unless they want to turn Jack Conklin or Taylor Decker into one. Miami may take a flyer on Shaq Lawson in this range, but a cornerback like William Jackson or Eli Apple would work just as well too.

In the second round? If Derrick Henry’s still there, he’d be a great running back, with Devontae Booker as a decent alternative. Cody Whitehair’s the top guard and would be in play, though Germain Ifedi and Jason Spriggs are the sort of tackle a coach might like to turn into a guard. At defensive end, Shilique Calhoun, Noah Spence and Kevin Dodd may be around to pick. At cornerback, Xavien Howard and Artie Burns are in play, as is Kendall Fuller, who may or may not be able to contribute this year.

New England Patriots

They pick: 60th and 61st overall (no 1st round pick)
They need: Running back, Offensive Guard, Center, 4-3 Defensive End

Who might they go for in the second round? At running back, Devontae Booker would be a good scenario, but more likely it’ll be picking one of Kenneth Dixon, CJ Prosise or Paul Perkins. Guards like Cody Whitehair, Joshua Garnett and Spencer Drango will be available, though turning a tackle like Germain Ifedi into a guard will also be a consideration. Nick Martin may be available at center, and at 4-3 end, Shilique Calhoun, Carl Nassib and Charles Tapper may be around. Though good luck to anyone trying to second-guess Bill Bellichick.

New York Jets

They pick: 20th overall
They need: Quarterback, Offensive Tackle, 3-4 Outside Linebacker, 3-4 Inside Linebacker

Who might they go for in the first round? Paxton Lynch is the top quarterback in range at this point, and there’s a good chance he’s already gone, so if the Jets really want a first-round quarterback, it’s time to reach for Connor Cook. At tackle, Jack Conklin and Taylor Decker are projected to go around about here. Shaq Lawson and Noah Spence are big pass rushers who could go here, while Leonard Floyd and Darron Lee are more traditional outside linebackers. At inside linebacker, this is Reggie Ragland country.

In the second round? Connor Cook may even still be on the board, but if the Jets want a project, Cardale Jones, Dak Prescott or Christian Hackenberg may be in play. At tackle, Jason Spriggs and Le’Raven Clark are feasible, and at pass-rusher, Shilique Calhoun and Yannick Ngakoue may be in play. At linebacker, look out for Scooby Wright, Su’a Cravens, and maybe Beniquez Brown.

Draft Tipper: NFC and AFC North

It’s nearly draft time, which means you want an idea of which team’s going to draft which player. We don’t have the expertise to do mock drafts, which even if we did are a massive crapshoot, so what we’re doing this year is identifying a few team needs, and which players might be around for teams with their first and second round pick. It’s educated guesswork, but it’ll be a useful guide for you if you’re not sure who to hope your team drafts. Anyway, let’s start with the NFC and AFC North divisions.

NFC North

Chicago Bears

They Pick: 11th overall
They Need: Cornerback, 3-4 Defensive End, Offensive Tackle, Wide Receiver.

Who might they go for in the first round? Picking 11th overall, they could pick a cornerback in Vernon Hargreaves, a tackle in Ronnie Stanley, or a defensive end in A’Shawn Robinson or Jarran Read. While they’ll want another wide receiver, I don’t think any are quite up to being picked 11th overall. Chicago can afford to wait.

In the second round? Mackensie Alexander or Xavien Howard are possible cornerbacks. If they go for a defensive end, Chris Jones, Hassan Ridgeway and Adolphus Washington may be in play. Offensive tackles like Jason Spriggs, Germain Ifedi and Le’Raven Clark are available. And there will be loads of options for a complementary receiver – Sterling Shepard looks like a quality slot receiver, and Corey Coleman and Will Fuller will be great speed receivers if they slide to there.

Detroit Lions

They Pick: 15th overall
They Need: Wide Receiver, Offensive Tackle, Center, 4-3 Defensive Tackle

Who might they go for in the first round? At wide receiver, this is just about the range for Laquon Treadwell or Josh Docton. Offensive tackle is tricky – Jack Conklin offers value as a potential left tackle there, but if he’s gone, is Taylor Decker a better bet than Riley Reiff? Detroit won’t go center in the first round, but A’Shawn Robinson, Sheldon Rankins, Jarran Reed and Andrew Billings are all in play at defensive tackle.

In the second round? Receivers like Michael Thomas and Tyler Boyd could be Detroit’s thing. There’s also Braxton Miller, but I’m not sure he’d quite fit what Detroit want. As with Chicago, Spriggs, Ifedi and Clark are all in this range at offensive tackle, are Ryan Kelly and Nick Martin at center. At defensive tackle, Vernon Butler, Jonathan Bullard, Kenny Clark and Adolphus Washington could go in this sort of range.

Green Bay Packers

They pick: 27th overall
They Need: Tight End, 3-4 Defensive End, 3-4 Inside Linebacker

Who might they go for in the first round? Some teams draft according to the “best player available” philosophy, whereby they don’t draft to a need, maybe because they don’t need to, or maybe because of a can’t-miss-player. Green Bay drafted Aaron Rodgers in 2005 despite having several more years of Brett Favre to come, and it worked out great. If they don’t just snag a player who’s inexpicably slid, defensive ends like Shaq Lawson and Noah Spence come into play, as do Reggie Ragland and Darron Lee at linebacker.

In the second round? Jaylon Smith may end up in the “best player available” category here, he’s an inside linebacker who will probably miss the 2016 season due to injury, and has a somewhat uncertain future but could well end up one of the best players to come from the draft if he’s fit. Elsewhere, look out for Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper at tight end, Shilique Calhoun at defensive end, and at linebacker, Scooby Wright or Su’a Cravens (if they’re feeling creative – Cravens is sort of half safety, half linebacker).

Minnesota Vikings

They pick: 23rd overall
They need: Wide receiver, many Offensive Linemen, Strong Safety

Who might they go for in the first round? This is prime territory to pick up a wide receiver. Laquon Treadwell and Josh Doctson would both be tasty alongside Stefon Diggs. Tackles like Jack Conklin and Taylor Decker may be available, Germain Ifedi probably will. There probably isn’t a safety worth picking here to pair with Harrison Smith.

In the second round? I think Minnesota will pick receiver first, but if they don’t, Michael Thomas would be a nice fit here, though I think Braxton Miller is too similar to Cordarelle Patterson for Minnesota to go for. On the O-Line, as well as the tackles mentioned for Chicago and Detroit, Cody Whitehair would be a nice fit at guard. At strong safety, Keanu Neal, Darian Thompson and Jeremy Cash are possibilities.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

They pick: 6th overall
They need: Offensive tackle, 3-4 Defensive End, 3-4 Outside Linebacker, Cornerback

Who might they go for in the first round? Baltimore are flooded with options here. Of the very top players, Laremy Tunsil and Jalen Ramsey are two potential targets who will likely already be gone. But, a top tackle like Ronnie Stanley is in play, as are top defensive ends DeForest Buckner and Joey Bosa (who may be more likely to fulfill their linebacker need). They could trade down for an outside linebacker like Leonard Floyd, or draft a top cornerback like Vernon Hargreaves.

In the second round? A tackle like Germain Ifedi is a possibility, and there are many potential 3-4 ends as mentioned with Chicago further up. Pass-rushing linebackers available should include Noah Spence and Yannick Ngakoue, and cornerbacks such as Xavien Howard and Mackensie Alexander are potential picks, though Baltimore are the type of team that may take a flyer on Kendall Fuller – a top-quality cornerback who will miss some if not all of the 2016 season.

Cincinnati Bengals

They pick: 24th overall
They need: Wide receiver, 4-3 Defensive Tackle, 4-3 Defensive End

Who might they go for in the first round? Cincinnati have been shedding secondary receivers recently, so a Laquon Treadwell, Corey Coleman, Will Fuller or Josh Doctson will likely appeal. On defense, big bulky units up the middle like Vernon Butler and Jarran Reed would be welcome, as would scary pass-rushers like Kevin Dodd and Emmanuel Ogbah.

In the second round? Again, there’ll be some decent wide receivers to pick up like Tyler Boyd, though a Braxton Miller-type “versatile” “weapon” might appeal to a team already set at the WR1 slot with AJ Green. Along the defensive line, tackles include people like Chris Jones and Adolphus Washington, and pass rushers will include Shilique Calhoun and Carl Nassib.

Cleveland Browns

They pick: 2nd overall
They need: Quarterback, Wide Receiver, 3-4 Defensive End, 3-4 Outside Linebacker, Safety

Who might they go for in the first round? Cleveland were thought of as favourites to go quarterback prior to the Rams-Titans trade. Now, if their quarterback of choice is off the board, Jalen Ramsey at safety/cornerback would be the choice, though they may pick Laremy Tunsil and leave him at right tackle until their all-pro left tackle Joe Thomas leaves or retires.

In the second round? If they want quarterback here, Connor Cook is in play. Expect either Will Fuller or Corey Coleman to still be available here as a deep threat or slot weapon at wide receiver. They may target Chris Jones or Hassan Ridgeway at defensive tackle, or Noah Spence, Emmanuel Ogbah or Yannick Ngakoue to be in play at outside linebacker. Cleveland would also have their pick of safeties, with Vonn Bell, Keanu Neal and Karl Joseph likely to be available.

EDIT: Well, the first round here’s all change now since the trade where Philadelphia get Cleveland’s second overall pick. Cleveland don’t get a whole heap this year but will in future years. In any case, it changes who Cleveland will go for in the first round. I still think it’s not wide receiver territory, though they may go for Paxton Lynch at quarterback if they like him. More realistically, if DeForest Buckner slides to 8 they may pick him, or a pass-rusher like Shaq Lawson or Leonard Floyd may be in play. But I think they may just go for best player available. Someone like Vernon Hargreaves, Ronnie Stanley or even Ezekiel Elliott may not be one of the Browns’ biggest needs, but they’d still be very good players, presumably.

Pittsburgh Steelers

They pick: 25th overall
They need: Offensive tackle, Nose Tackle, Safety, Cornerback

Who might they go for in the first round? Though Pittsburgh need a left tackle, I’m not sure any will fall within this sort of range. A nose tackle like Vernon Butler or A’Shawn Robinson will be in play. Pittsburgh would have their pick of the safeties mentioned with Cleveland’s second round pick, though a cornerback like William Jackson, Eli Apple or Mackensie Alexander might offer better value.

In the second round? At tackle, players like Jason Spriggs and Le’Raven Clark maybe available, as would nose tackles like Adolphus Washington and Hassan Ridgeway. The best safeties will have gone, but players like Jeremy Cash and Darian Thompson may still offer value. A cornerback like Artie Burns is a potential pick too.

The Checkdown: Who’s a Good QB Then?

This week in the Checkdown, our plans for a nice leisurely look at a few issues were blasted out the water by the Tennessee-Los Angeles trade on Thursday. We’ll look in a bit more depth at that next week, because this week we also want to talk about the draft’s QBs, the latest in the Josh Gordon reinstatement saga, and look at fifth-year options for 2013 1st round picks.

Titans Trade Out of #1 Pick, Rams Give Up The House

Thursday was blockbuster trade time in the NFL, as the LA Rams gave up a bucketload of picks to the Titans for the honour of picking 1st overall in this year’s draft. This came in a bit late for our weekly roundup, so we’ll cover it more next week, but despite what the Rams are saying, they will have one player in particular in mind for that number 1 pick, and it’s probably a Quarterback, either Carson Wentz or Jared Goff. We’ll have a look at what this means for everyone next week.

1st round QBs

SB Nation’s Dan Kadar believes Jared Goff “is the better quarterback right now”. Before Thursday’s trade, he thought that one of the consensus top two QBs will go to Cleveland and the other to the 49ers at pick 7 with Paxton Lynch to the Bills at 19. With LA trading up, the main uncertainty is whether Cleveland will take a QB at 2.

When Wentz has “a clean pocket and room to work, he can really show it off” says Robert Mays, but he relies on scheme to get that space, and “struggled when he had less space”, whereas Goff is “adept at controlling safeties with his eyes” and “navigates the entire pocket”. Jason La Canfora at CBS says the Browns agree, and that “the fact that Wentz did not face the caliber of competition you would prefer and is a late-bloomer has them concerned”.

One of Goff’s strengths is his deep passing, notes ESPN’s Sharon Katz, completing “45.6 percent of his passes longer than 20 yards in 2015” (compared to 24.2 from Wentz), but “took more than 99 percent of his snaps from the shotgun or pistol in his career”. Wentz has the size and athleticism of “a prototypical NFL quarterback” but struggles under pressure – “when under duress in 2015, Wentz completed 28.9 percent of his passes and converted a first down 15 percent of the time”.

However, Pat McManamon states “Wentz has become the favourite of the analysts, mainly because of his potential”, although does note that “Goff is the best passer in the draft”, and Hue Jackson admires his “poise under pressure”. Mel Kiper believes Wentz will be first off the board, despite not being “the top QB on my board”. Bleacher Report’s Brent Sobleski agrees, saying “he appears destined to be the first quarterback selected”, and the potential outweighs the drawbacks, particularly as this QB class has no standout.
Further down the draft are a QBs such as Lynch and Connor Cook, projected as second round talent by ESPN, but who may be picked sooner due to the importance placed in a signal caller – “it’s a quarterback-starved league” says Steve Muench. Lynch has the physical tools and “can be somebody’s quarterback in the next few years”, but lacks experience and hasn’t displayed ideal intangibles, whilst Cook has “good starting experience and success in a pro-style offense”, but displays sloppy footwork alongside leadership concerns.

Essentially – do you believe in Goff’s intangibles? Or do you trust your coaches to get Wentz up to speed and get his athleticism on top? Or double down on the latter theory, and take Lynch later on? There is no consensus at the moment, but with LA trading up on Thursday, it looks like one of these QBs will go first pick.

Josh Gordon

The Cleveland Browns’ exceptionally talented but suspended wide receiver Josh Gordon has reportedly had his request for reinstatement denied, following a failed drug test containing marijuana and dilute.

Mike Tanier of Bleacher Report thinks Gordon’s getting a raw deal from the NFL – “he is like many NFL players, in that he has no privacy when it comes to drug testing”. The timing of the leak seems to be related to increasing calls on the NFL for a decision on Gordon’s reinstatement, indicating that these “leaks are becoming more strategic, calculated”.

SI’s Doug Farrar believes it’s time for a change in policy regarding marijuana anyway – especially as marijuana has been shown to “help people in two areas of common concern to every NFL player—pain management and the effects of head trauma”. The drug is now legal in many states in the US, but the NFL remains steadfast it its policy, resulting in many players (such as NE’s Chandler Jones and Seattle’s Derrick Coleman) turning to potentially more dangerous synthetic equivalents in the belief that they “will pass through drug tests where regular marijuana will not”. The prospect of change is slim for the time being, as “expecting Goodell and his current medical cronies to switch their view on this may be a fool’s errand.”

For a wider look at performance-enhancing and recreational drug testing in the NFL, give our piece from February a read.

Fifth-Year Options

The first fifth-year option pickups are starting to trickle in, with Tyler Eifert  and probably Star Lotulelei joining Kenny Vaccaro. For those not in the know, under the 2011 Collective Bargaining Agreement, all first-round picks have a fifth-year option inserted into their rookie contract, which a team can pick up after three years. It essentially means those players are under contract for two years, giving everyone plenty of notice and incentive to get to work on longer term contracts, or to give players one last chance to prove they’re long-term contract worthy. Contracts are worth an average of what good players at that position earn. For example, Kenny Vaccaro was the 15th pick in the 2013 draft, and will earn an average of what the 3rd through 25th best paid safeties in 2017 earn.

Teams have until early May to pick up fifth-year options. These are only fully guaranteed in case of injury, so a fit player who has a bad 2016 can be released in 2017 at no cost to the club and no security to the player.

As far as who’s likely to get their options picked up goes, Philadelphia’s Lane Johnson already has his big extension so there’s no option left to pick up, while at the other end of the scale Indianapolis cut Björn Werner, leaving no contract for there to be a fifth-year option on.  Expect players like Desmond Trufant, DeAndre Hopkins, Sheldon Richardson and Sharrif Floyd to get their options picked up, while players like Matt Elam, Dee Milliner and Barkevious Mingo will probably go without. It’s a good indicator, three years into their career, which of the first-rounders are looking like good players in future, and which are seen as busts.

Please, What Is The NFL Draft?

So, it’s almost time for the 2016 NFL Draft, and you all know what that means, don’t you?

What? You don’t really know anything about the draft? What’s going on and all that? Luckily, here I am to talk you through the whole she-bang!

What’s The Principle Behind The NFL Draft?

You’re probably at least a bit aware that big American sports are a bit more…collective than European ones. Whereas in the Premier League or La Liga, whoever’s got the richest owners or best revenue streams ought to have the best teams and win things, the NFL wants all 32 teams to have a chance to be the best, even if in some cases that means being the best eventually.

There are a few ways they enforce this. The salary cap is one major one, which stops (in theory) a few teams acquiring all the best players because you’re only allowed to pay a certain amount in wages each year. The other major one is the draft, a worst-picks-first system of the best players to come out of the college football system, and in theory improves the worst teams more than the best.

What Actually Happens In The Draft

The draft is a pretty big event this year. It lasts three days, and is these days held in the Auditorium Theatre in Chicago. The theatre itself holds nearly 4,000 people, but people flock en masse to the fanzone-style Draft Town, in Chicago’s so-so Grant Park – supposedly some 200,000 of them. And what do they get to watch?

The draft consists of seven rounds of picks. In theory, each team picks in roughly the same spot each round, with the team with the worst record picking first, and the Super Bowl winners picking thirty-second. If teams have the same record (say, two teams finishing 6-10), the first pick goes to the team that had the easiest schedule, though the order in later rounds will rotate between them.

Once the draft starts, teams have ten minutes to make their first round pick. They “call it in”, over the phone, to some dude in the NFL office there, and a few minutes later the Commissioner saunters out to the podium and announces who’s been picked. A selection of 20-30 players expected to be first-round picks are invited along, so they can go out on stage to applause for a photo op with their name and a big number 1 on their new team’s shirt. As the rounds go on, teams get less time to make their picks and there are no photo ops, but it’s all broadly the same.

How do teams decide who to pick, though? Well, they’ll have been scouting college football pretty intensely all year, and have plenty of tape to watch to have an idea of who the best players are. They get physically tested at the NFL Combine, their college’s Pro Days, and during personal workouts with teams. They get interviewed, too. So they have an idea of who’s good and who’s not. Teams should also have an idea of what positions they need to fill. Maybe they lost all their best wide receivers in free agency. Maybe their star safety is getting old and only has one year left before he retires. The ideal draft scenario in an early round is picking the best player available from one of your major positional needs.

What To Look Out For

The first overall pick is the golden egg of the draft. You have the choice of literally any of these former college players, it’s up to you to pick the best for your team. So why don’t you? Trouble is, it’s not that simple. College football is quite different to the NFL – with so many more teams, and players only there for a few years, the standard of the average player is lower, and the disparity between best and worst players in any given game is huge in comparison. Add in to that, players develop at different speeds – some might blossom in the NFL, some might have already hit the peak of their career aged 21. You draft a player expecting he’s going to improve, which makes it tricky.

Nonetheless, the first overall pick is going to have bucketloads of attention paid to him while he’s in the NFL. He will be expected to perform to a high level, and if he doesn’t, sour-faced cries of “Bust!” will follow him round. And there is barely a greater insult given to an NFL player than that.

The draft is also a good example of how not all positions are created equal. Quarterbacks are the best example of this. It’s the most important position in the game, and has the biggest impact when you upgrade it. Teams with bad quarterbacks are desperate to draft the next superstar, so they’ll be drafted earlier, or teams will give away a vast swathe of picks to trade up to draft one, all that sort of thing. It adds to the pressure on quarterbacks, but you can see why it happens.

Elsewhere, offensive tackles and pass rushers tend to be the next highest drafted positional group. Wide receivers and cornerbacks tend to follow them, with linebackers and defensive tackles in the next group, and running backs, safeties, tight ends and interior offensive linemen behind that. Specialists rarely get picked in the first four rounds, and kickers are prioritised over punters.

Is this all deserved? It’s tricky to say. The NFL has a hierarchy of positions – a good left tackle is seen as more important than a good strong safety. Running backs are interesting too, they’re seen as expendable and all but growing on trees these days, as the run game declines and coaches start to think it’s more dependent on a good offensive line than good running back.

How Teams Can Get More Or Better Picks

What, you didn’t think that teams had some shenanigans? The most interesting way to alter your draft is by trading. Trades can involve picks elsewhere in the draft, players already in the NFL, or a combination of the two. Let’s say a team has the 12th pick in the first round, but wants a player who’s likely to go in the top 5. Maybe they call the team with the 4th overall pick, and offer to swap picks. The team currently in the better position will want more picks, maybe a second round and a fifth round pick, or maybe a second round pick and another player on the other team’s roster who can also fill a hole. The teams agree terms, confirm the trade with the league office, and then the team who has traded up to have the 4th pick can get their player. Thing is, they still only have the 10 minutes to do all this from the point at which the previous team picked their player. So, better hurry! In reality, teams will have called each other a few days in advance to test the waters for such trades. Still, it’s high pressure with quick turnaround, which helps the adrenaline to run.

The other way to get more picks is through compensatory picks. These are weird, arcane, and less interesting than trades, but they form a major part of roster management strategy for some teams. The theory is this: if you lose ‘good’ players through free agency, either through them retiring or signing somewhere else, and you don’t replace those players with ‘good’ players in free agency, the NFL will attempt to compensate you for your loss with extra picks. They hand out 32 every year, and often a few teams will end up snagging three or four extra picks, and several teams will get diddly-squat. So it goes. It’s less interesting because what makes a ‘good’ player, what doesn’t, and how you work out who hasn’t been replaced is worked out by a formula that the NFL keeps to themselves, though those kind souls at OverTheCap.com have attempted to do God’s Work and tried to figure it out. Oh, and the other reason compensatory picks aren’t as interesting? While the idea is that the bigger disparity in quality in unreplaced players means earlier draft picks, the picks that are given are at the end of whatever round it is, after 32 picks in that round. And the best pick you can get is a third-round pick. So you might just get an extra pick at about 97th overall pick. Which is pretty late.

Things To Bear In Mind

One thing to remember about the draft process is: players essentially get no choice who to play for. It’s weird when you think about it. Players choose where they go to college based on several offers, then declare for the draft and are told, “you’re playing here for the next few years and if you don’t like it, tough!” Woe betide the superlative talent stuck on a team that doesn’t know its arse from its elbow. It gets worse, though. There’s a very strict rookie pay scale, and rookies will generally sign four year contracts, and if you’re a first round pick, the team can exercise an option in your contract to keep you around for a fifth year, albeit by that point at a highly remunerative level. But it is a system that looks downright bizarre to us Europeans. I suppose the best way to think about it is that they apply for a job as a footballer in the NFL, and the NFL decides which office to send them to.

As I said earlier, college football is quite different to NFL, because it’s a much wider disparity in level of talent. So it can be quite an adjustment, even for the very best players, when coming to the NFL. As you might imagine then, a sensible coach shouldn’t expect the moon on a stick from their rookies. In fact, the two Super Bowl teams just gone, Denver and Carolina, got only so-so contributions from their rookies. I’m sure they’ll be better players in years to come, but in that first year, don’t expect too much. Teams will be looking for their early round draft picks to really pick up the game in their 2nd and 3rd years, and the later round picks maybe a 3rd or 4th year would also be fine. One bad draft can’t ruin a team that year, but it’s not going to help the team in years to come. A common reason for teams to struggle is previous draft picks not improving as you’d expected them to, so your roster is weaker than you were planning for it to be. Similarly, players improving more than you expected them to is great for a team!

So, those are the basics about the draft. This year’s draft takes place April 28-30 (though in UK time that’s more like April 29 – May 1). There’ll be draft previews for each division coming up in the next few weeks, and also some quick notes on which players to look out for at various points coming too.

If you want to know anything else about the draft, anything to do with the NFL or American Football in general, or have any suggestions for what you’d like to see us cover, follow The Long Snapper on Twitter, or drop us an email .