What To Make Of Dallas Drafting Elliott?

You’ll notice we’ve been kind of quiet at The Long Snapper the last month or so. That’s because there’s been next to nothing happening, and frankly, there are other sports around. So while we’ve been watching the cycling, football, cricket, or…whatever sport Roughing the Passer follows when he takes a break from watching Eric Ebron drop passes, the NFL’s been quietly getting on with its business, disturbing no-one.

If only. As you might have either noticed or guessed, the NFL never really shuts down. Still, you won’t be hearing too much from us over the summer unless we think of something to write about. Not much point in moaning about the saturation of coverage then contributing to it without having anything you really want to say, eh?

So what has been happening? Follow-up to the draft, mainly. There were a few shocks and stories on draft night, but it mostly veered towards “slightly unexpected”, rather than the “lay off the mushrooms” department, unless you’re Chip Kelly trading back into the first-round for a mid-round guard prospect. That said, I did find the Cowboys drafting Ezekiel Elliott at fourth overall pretty interesting.

See, I never thought the Cowboys would go running back, and I didn’t have Elliott pegged as an early pick. Now, I don’t know that much about the NFL in the grand scheme of things, but for the most part those more in the know weren’t suggesting so either.

So Why Is This Interesting?

Yeah, so far, so mildly diverting but that’s it, right? Well, it was Mike Carlson’s piece for NFL UK that made me think a bit more deeply about this. The interest is essentially because Elliott’s a running back, and all that means. We know Elliott was one of the top players in the draft, ignoring positional weighting, but we know that running back is one of the most devalued positions in the league, where it’s seen as relatively easy to get a serviceable player, and not a huge amount to be gained unless you’re getting a totally elite back.

It gets a bit more curious, too. The rookie wage scale tends to be a suppressive force, whereby players earn less than they probably would on the open market, should they hit their potential. Getting a rookie who plays to a decent level in their first year, and keeps it up for their next four, is an absolute bargain, where you’ll be investing a smaller percentage of your total salary cap in someone who provides a higher percentage of important play to your team. For example, first overall pick Jared Goff places 26th across the league in average wage per year for quarterback contracts. Ezekiel Elliott is 9th among running backs. Top ten money! And that’s at a position where you can get more than one well-paid player, unlikely at quarterback (unless you’re Philadelphia).

Why Did They Pick Him, Then?

Two years ago, Dallas had DeMarco Murray, who led the league in rushing, and in total yards from scrimmage. So, he ran a lot, and he caught a whole heap of passes. Murray racked up 2,261 yards in 2014, then took his money, went to Philadelphia, and bombed. In his place, Dallas eventually settled on Darren McFadden, who got 1,417 yards in what roughly amounted to 13-14 games after he won the job from Joseph Randle. Respectable numbers! But with Tony Romo and Dez Bryant out injured (and their replacements doing much worse than McFadden), Dallas went from three very good starters at QB, RB and WR, to an okay one and two bums.

Elliott is seen as representing the DeMarco Murray style of player. He’s a ‘three-down’ back, which means that as well as running the ball, he’s a realistic prospect to throw the ball to, and he can also pass block, helping to buy Tony Romo an extra second or two. Murray did that. McFadden and Randle? Not so much. The benefit of having a three-down back who’s a top runner is that defences have to prepare for more eventualities. If your third-down running back isn’t much of a runner, they don’t have to commit the same resources to potentially stopping them, so you free up a defensive player to cover the pass. Similarly, if they’re not much of a pass blocker, you have a better chance to get to the quarterback. Can’t catch? Don’t worry too much about having covering them out of the backfield.

So that’s the value of a three-down back, but that just explains why he’s the a highly -picked running back. That he’s very good at all three explains why he went in say, the first 16 picks, not why he went as high as 4th overall. The thing is that Dallas have invested huge amounts of resources in their offensive line. They have three first-round picks (Tyron Smith, Travis Frederick, Zack Martin), a youngster on a comparatively big deal (La’el Collins), and a couple of veterans on not that small deals (Ronald Leary, Doug Free). It’d be a bit pointless having that much invested in top run-blockers and then throwing the ball to your first read every down. The value of a three-down back reflects the general value of having a great running game. The difference between a good one and a great one? Teams were generally okay letting McFadden rack up a few yards whilst committing resources elsewhere, because they thought (often correctly) that he wouldn’t get sufficient yards to actually put the game in jeopardy, or to give Dallas momentum.

If you’ve spent all that money on an offensive line and it’s not helping you win games, it’s wasted. And if it takes the best running back to do that, so be it. McFadden might have been one of the leading rushers in the NFL last year, but that wasn’t enough. Dallas have the best offensive line in the league, they ought to have the best rushing attack every year, right?

So What’s The Problem?

Sounds simple, doesn’t it? The issue comes back to opportunity cost. A running back is always going to seem like a luxury pick, because there is the perception of so many more late-round picks or undrafted free agents doing wonders in the NFL. There is recent precedent for that perception – undrafted Arian Foster led the league in rushing in 2010, his second season in the league. Two years ago, Baltimore plucked Justin Forsett from essentially nowhere and he topped 1,250 yards. Conversely, the last highly-drafted running back was Trent Richardson, who has been an epic, epic bust. Could Dallas have not done better drafting someone who might turn into a three-down back, like Devontae Booker (4th round, Denver) or Paul Perkins (5th round, NY Giants)? Well, it would’ve been more of a risk, obviously.

Dallas’ defense is dreadful. In their pass-rush, maybe they would’ve drafted Joey Bosa if he were there, but he wasn’t. In the secondary, Jalen Ramsey was, so why not pick him? Personally, I think Ramsey is the better player, but a quick look at last year’s draft through the retrospectoscope makes that less likely: Dallas drafted Byron Jones, a sort of similar safety/cornerback hybrid (albeit a touch more in the Devon McCourty mould) last year. They’d have two identical players, one of whom would be spending the majority of his rookie contract at a less-than-ideal position. Is that also a waste of resources?

If, as it looks, there was no-one who fit in Dallas’ defensive scheme with the talent of a #4 pick there, why not trade the pick? Get the value of a fourth overall pick in other picks added together (say, a mid-first rounder and a second or third rounder). Well, that requires someone wanting to trade up. And to #4. While Tennessee ended up trading back to 8, trading up to 4 would’ve cost someone a lot, in terms of the depth they could add. Wisely, it looks as if no-one wanted to give up that much.

Sum It Up Then

I was going to rag on this pick before I started writing this piece, and I still think it looks suboptimal. That said, I’ve come round to the idea of this pick. Who else was picked early? In terms of who was available, we’ve discarded Ramsey as above. Who was next? Buckner? Not a fit in Dallas’ defense. Ronnie Stanley? Jack Conklin? Yeah, Dallas don’t need another lineman. Look at Leonard Floyd at #9 – he’s more of a 3-4 linebacker, and Dallas play a 4-3. So then you get to the second tier of cornerbacks! I don’t think that would’ve been a bad choice, but it’d be a toss-up between a generational talent at a slightly less valued position versus merely a very good talent at a more highly valued position.

Dallas were left in a weird position. Despite the opportunity cost, despite what they were (and are) giving up in terms of a high draft pick and paying top-10 wages for a running back, it’s a bizarrely safe choice. It’s a player they reckon is going to fit the system, who they can be fairly sure is going to be a success, and who is going to help make the most of what they’ve already invested.

Please, What Is The NFL Draft?

So, it’s almost time for the 2016 NFL Draft, and you all know what that means, don’t you?

What? You don’t really know anything about the draft? What’s going on and all that? Luckily, here I am to talk you through the whole she-bang!

What’s The Principle Behind The NFL Draft?

You’re probably at least a bit aware that big American sports are a bit more…collective than European ones. Whereas in the Premier League or La Liga, whoever’s got the richest owners or best revenue streams ought to have the best teams and win things, the NFL wants all 32 teams to have a chance to be the best, even if in some cases that means being the best eventually.

There are a few ways they enforce this. The salary cap is one major one, which stops (in theory) a few teams acquiring all the best players because you’re only allowed to pay a certain amount in wages each year. The other major one is the draft, a worst-picks-first system of the best players to come out of the college football system, and in theory improves the worst teams more than the best.

What Actually Happens In The Draft

The draft is a pretty big event this year. It lasts three days, and is these days held in the Auditorium Theatre in Chicago. The theatre itself holds nearly 4,000 people, but people flock en masse to the fanzone-style Draft Town, in Chicago’s so-so Grant Park – supposedly some 200,000 of them. And what do they get to watch?

The draft consists of seven rounds of picks. In theory, each team picks in roughly the same spot each round, with the team with the worst record picking first, and the Super Bowl winners picking thirty-second. If teams have the same record (say, two teams finishing 6-10), the first pick goes to the team that had the easiest schedule, though the order in later rounds will rotate between them.

Once the draft starts, teams have ten minutes to make their first round pick. They “call it in”, over the phone, to some dude in the NFL office there, and a few minutes later the Commissioner saunters out to the podium and announces who’s been picked. A selection of 20-30 players expected to be first-round picks are invited along, so they can go out on stage to applause for a photo op with their name and a big number 1 on their new team’s shirt. As the rounds go on, teams get less time to make their picks and there are no photo ops, but it’s all broadly the same.

How do teams decide who to pick, though? Well, they’ll have been scouting college football pretty intensely all year, and have plenty of tape to watch to have an idea of who the best players are. They get physically tested at the NFL Combine, their college’s Pro Days, and during personal workouts with teams. They get interviewed, too. So they have an idea of who’s good and who’s not. Teams should also have an idea of what positions they need to fill. Maybe they lost all their best wide receivers in free agency. Maybe their star safety is getting old and only has one year left before he retires. The ideal draft scenario in an early round is picking the best player available from one of your major positional needs.

What To Look Out For

The first overall pick is the golden egg of the draft. You have the choice of literally any of these former college players, it’s up to you to pick the best for your team. So why don’t you? Trouble is, it’s not that simple. College football is quite different to the NFL – with so many more teams, and players only there for a few years, the standard of the average player is lower, and the disparity between best and worst players in any given game is huge in comparison. Add in to that, players develop at different speeds – some might blossom in the NFL, some might have already hit the peak of their career aged 21. You draft a player expecting he’s going to improve, which makes it tricky.

Nonetheless, the first overall pick is going to have bucketloads of attention paid to him while he’s in the NFL. He will be expected to perform to a high level, and if he doesn’t, sour-faced cries of “Bust!” will follow him round. And there is barely a greater insult given to an NFL player than that.

The draft is also a good example of how not all positions are created equal. Quarterbacks are the best example of this. It’s the most important position in the game, and has the biggest impact when you upgrade it. Teams with bad quarterbacks are desperate to draft the next superstar, so they’ll be drafted earlier, or teams will give away a vast swathe of picks to trade up to draft one, all that sort of thing. It adds to the pressure on quarterbacks, but you can see why it happens.

Elsewhere, offensive tackles and pass rushers tend to be the next highest drafted positional group. Wide receivers and cornerbacks tend to follow them, with linebackers and defensive tackles in the next group, and running backs, safeties, tight ends and interior offensive linemen behind that. Specialists rarely get picked in the first four rounds, and kickers are prioritised over punters.

Is this all deserved? It’s tricky to say. The NFL has a hierarchy of positions – a good left tackle is seen as more important than a good strong safety. Running backs are interesting too, they’re seen as expendable and all but growing on trees these days, as the run game declines and coaches start to think it’s more dependent on a good offensive line than good running back.

How Teams Can Get More Or Better Picks

What, you didn’t think that teams had some shenanigans? The most interesting way to alter your draft is by trading. Trades can involve picks elsewhere in the draft, players already in the NFL, or a combination of the two. Let’s say a team has the 12th pick in the first round, but wants a player who’s likely to go in the top 5. Maybe they call the team with the 4th overall pick, and offer to swap picks. The team currently in the better position will want more picks, maybe a second round and a fifth round pick, or maybe a second round pick and another player on the other team’s roster who can also fill a hole. The teams agree terms, confirm the trade with the league office, and then the team who has traded up to have the 4th pick can get their player. Thing is, they still only have the 10 minutes to do all this from the point at which the previous team picked their player. So, better hurry! In reality, teams will have called each other a few days in advance to test the waters for such trades. Still, it’s high pressure with quick turnaround, which helps the adrenaline to run.

The other way to get more picks is through compensatory picks. These are weird, arcane, and less interesting than trades, but they form a major part of roster management strategy for some teams. The theory is this: if you lose ‘good’ players through free agency, either through them retiring or signing somewhere else, and you don’t replace those players with ‘good’ players in free agency, the NFL will attempt to compensate you for your loss with extra picks. They hand out 32 every year, and often a few teams will end up snagging three or four extra picks, and several teams will get diddly-squat. So it goes. It’s less interesting because what makes a ‘good’ player, what doesn’t, and how you work out who hasn’t been replaced is worked out by a formula that the NFL keeps to themselves, though those kind souls at OverTheCap.com have attempted to do God’s Work and tried to figure it out. Oh, and the other reason compensatory picks aren’t as interesting? While the idea is that the bigger disparity in quality in unreplaced players means earlier draft picks, the picks that are given are at the end of whatever round it is, after 32 picks in that round. And the best pick you can get is a third-round pick. So you might just get an extra pick at about 97th overall pick. Which is pretty late.

Things To Bear In Mind

One thing to remember about the draft process is: players essentially get no choice who to play for. It’s weird when you think about it. Players choose where they go to college based on several offers, then declare for the draft and are told, “you’re playing here for the next few years and if you don’t like it, tough!” Woe betide the superlative talent stuck on a team that doesn’t know its arse from its elbow. It gets worse, though. There’s a very strict rookie pay scale, and rookies will generally sign four year contracts, and if you’re a first round pick, the team can exercise an option in your contract to keep you around for a fifth year, albeit by that point at a highly remunerative level. But it is a system that looks downright bizarre to us Europeans. I suppose the best way to think about it is that they apply for a job as a footballer in the NFL, and the NFL decides which office to send them to.

As I said earlier, college football is quite different to NFL, because it’s a much wider disparity in level of talent. So it can be quite an adjustment, even for the very best players, when coming to the NFL. As you might imagine then, a sensible coach shouldn’t expect the moon on a stick from their rookies. In fact, the two Super Bowl teams just gone, Denver and Carolina, got only so-so contributions from their rookies. I’m sure they’ll be better players in years to come, but in that first year, don’t expect too much. Teams will be looking for their early round draft picks to really pick up the game in their 2nd and 3rd years, and the later round picks maybe a 3rd or 4th year would also be fine. One bad draft can’t ruin a team that year, but it’s not going to help the team in years to come. A common reason for teams to struggle is previous draft picks not improving as you’d expected them to, so your roster is weaker than you were planning for it to be. Similarly, players improving more than you expected them to is great for a team!

So, those are the basics about the draft. This year’s draft takes place April 28-30 (though in UK time that’s more like April 29 – May 1). There’ll be draft previews for each division coming up in the next few weeks, and also some quick notes on which players to look out for at various points coming too.

If you want to know anything else about the draft, anything to do with the NFL or American Football in general, or have any suggestions for what you’d like to see us cover, follow The Long Snapper on Twitter, or drop us an email .

The Long Snapper Guide To The Offseason

The football season is over. Boo. That such a huge, fun, all-encompassing sport takes over our lives for five months and then sods off for seven hardly seems fair, does it? But wait, there’s all the offseason to come! That’s fun, right?

Okay, we’re never going to be able to persuade you that following all the offseason shenanigans is going to be as much fun as, you know, watching actual football, but there are a few spots in the offseason you might want to pay attention to what your team is doing, or what the league is doing. Here, just for you, is a quick calendar and a quick guide as to what to expect.

February 16 – March 1: teams can apply the franchise tag. I’m loathe to go into too much detail about how money and contracts work in the NFL, but this is a two-week period where teams can keep one vital player for another year on an expensive (but not prohibitively so) contract. The tag gets more expensive every year, so it’s only a short term thing, but expect somewhere between 6 and 12 players (e.g. Josh Norman, Von Miller, Alshon Jeffrey, Kirk Cousins) to be given a franchise tag, which gives teams a little while longer (until July 15, as it happens) to negotiate a longer-term contract with one of their best players.

February 23-29: NFL Scouting Combine. So, this is where a bunch of players who’ve declared for the draft go, and get measured and get to do a whole heap of tests (sprinting, lifting, showcasing agility) to try and sell themselves to teams. I recommend watching at least a few minutes of it so you can appreciate what kind of strange meat market the NFL really is.

March 9: Free Agency Begins. This is when the transfer window opens! All those players who are no longer under contract will have been negotiating for 48 hours before this, and can go and sign with teams. See your team narrowly miss out on getting a shiny new third-choice wide receiver, or situational pass rusher! Actually, free agency is kind of important, mostly for teams trying to build depth or get solid starters in to fill holes without overpaying. This is also when trades can happen, which may lead to one or two shocks of top players moving between teams (the Sam Bradford/Nick Foles, and Jimmy Graham/Max Unger trades were the highlight of 2015). So that’s fun. Free agency’s nicely diverting for a few days, and it’ll help teams know more about who they need to draft.

April 28-30: NFL Draft. Speak of the devil. The draft is a pretty cool event, to be honest. Here’s where your teams hopefully pick the building blocks for the next four years and beyond, players to fill holes, contribute, and go on to be all-time greats that no-one else picked up on! In reality, you’re going to end up hitting and missing on players your team picks, so expect some that everyone thinks will be amazing to fail, and vice versa. The draft isn’t really a place to find players to contribute immediately and get you a Super Bowl win – that’s what free agency and, more importantly, long-term planning are for. Denver and Carolina didn’t get much from their rookies in 2015, for example, though both will be expecting them to do things in future years. No, the 2016 draft is what’ll help your team go all the way in 2017, 2018 and 2019 (and beyond). It’s also, if you’ve gotten a bit into this, a fun event to stay up for. I’ve stayed up the last couple of years and talked a load of crap with people on Twitter, and let’s face it, it’s the closest you’ll get to NFL fun before the action starts again. After this, there’s a big long gap of not much happening.

Late July: Training Camps. Of interest if you want to go and watch them, but you’re all living here in Britain (readers from other countries are welcomed!) and let’s face it, if you want to go and watch your favourite team, spend the air fare on going there during the season and watching a game! Don’t waste precious carbon on boring training camp!

August 7: Preseason games begin. Here come the friendlies! The Packers and Colts will play in Canton (home of the Pro Football Hall of Fame), in the ‘Hall of Fame game’, and then the following week, all the other teams will start their four preseason games. Preseason games are boring and only worth watching if you’ve got nothing else to do. The week 3 game from memory is the one where you’re most likely to see the starters. The week 4 game is fun if you like watching reserve teams play sports.

September 8: Regular season starts! And we can all breathe at last.