2016 Previews – AFC North

Ah, the AFC North. With three competitive, chippy teams, whose games are full of fight, acrimony, controversy, and fun. Oh, the Browns are here too.

Cincinnati Bengals

2015 record: 12-4, followed by yet another loss in their first playoff game, this time in particularly acrimonious circumstances, to the Steelers.

What’s To Love? This remains one of the deepest rosters in the league. Cincinnati have genuine stars in AJ Green and Geno Atkins, a host of very good starters like George Iloka, Andrew Whitworth, Tyler Eifert and Jeremy Hill. Andy Dalton had his best season last year, prior to getting injured. Replacement players are lined up for those who have left, like Shawn Williams at safety, and Tyler Boyd at wide receiver. Cincinnati might be struggling to kick on past the playoffs, but they’re doing everything right to put themselves into position to.

What’s Not To Love? The fact that the Bengals have now had several years of supremely talented rosters that have yet to take them beyond the first playoff game. It’s a tricky position for the fanbase: Cincinnati were dysfunctional and abysmal for years and years, and have now been very good, reliable, and providing lots of victories for their fanbase. I mean heck, San Diego fans comparing their team now to the La’Dainian Tomlinson years would tell you not to complain when the going’s good, but it can’t help but get everyone down that no matter what Cincinnati do to get themselves towards Super Bowl contention, they never get that playoff win.

What’ll 2016 Be Like Then? Frankly, it’s issues like that which every year make it hard to predict that Cincinnati will match the previous year. But they always do. Nonetheless, if we’re being cold and dispassionate Cincinnati look a touch below where they were last year – losing two draft picks already to injury (though neither were going to be starters), along with the injury-proneness of some top players like Eifert. I think 10-6 should be what we expect them to get.

Pittsburgh Steelers

2015 record: 10-6, including a section midway through the season where offensive coordinator Todd Haley forgot you could call any other play than “deep pass”.

What’s To Love? This offense has the ability to put up roughly 8,000 points a game. Antonio Brown is the game’s best wide receiver. Le’Veon Bell, when he’s not suspended, is close to the best running back. Ben Roethlisberger still has a huge arm, good accuracy and is somehow impossible to sack. Offensive coordinator Todd Haley just loves to pile on the points. While some teams might suffer without a No. 2 receiver like Martavis Bryant being suspended, the Steelers have Markus Wheaton and Sammie Coates. Not too bad!

What’s Not To Love? Pittsburgh have been struggling on defense for a few years now. Last year, Bud Dupree looked like a steal when he slid to them in the draft, but he underwhelmed as a rookie. More damningly, previous first-round pick Jarvis Jones was still being outplayed by a 37-year old James Harrison last year. Ryan Shazier looks promising at inside linebacker, but the team is stuffed with underwhelming players: Senquez Golson, Arthur Moats, Stephon Tuitt.

What’ll 2016 Be Like Then? An explosive offense and a defense no worse than “underwhelming” still marks Pittsburgh out as one of the best teams in the league. While an injury to Roethlisberger or – especially – Antonio Brown will be a big puncture in the Steelers’ title hopes, there’s enough variety to the offense that they should score a heck of a lot of points. Sure, the defense is not great, but it’ll be enough to see them to an 11-5 record, I suspect.

Baltimore Ravens

2015 Record: 5-11, which if you read as 5 minus 11 is roughly how many first-string starters Baltimore had left by mid-season.

What’s To Love? Getting all those players back from injury, really. Joe Flacco, Steve Smith, Justin Forsett, Terrell Suggs, Jeremy Zuttah, Breshad Perriman and a whole host more, should all be in the starting lineup. To be honest, outside of Suggs there aren’t many elite players there, but Baltimore lost so many solid starters – Flacco and Smith particularly constituted huge losses – that Baltimore’s arrow can only go up. Add in to which they discovered some replacement players who should contribute well (Kamar Aiken springs immediate to mind), and things should be ok in Baltimore.

What’s Not To Love? Like I said, a lack of elite players. Baltimore have a huge amount of their salary cap tied up in Joe Flacco. Flacco’s a very good quarterback, but has only historically really turned it on the playoffs. All fine and dandy, but this isn’t a good enough squad to expect to get there. The best players outside Flacco are veterans Smith and Suggs – combined age 70 – and while there’s some promising youth (namely CJ Mosley), this isn’t an overly well-put-together squad.

What’ll 2016 Be Like Then? Despite all that, this roster is good enough to give anyone a game. You can expect wily playcalling, and the older players do tend to have the absolutely perfect competitive work ethic – Steve Smith in particular. Short of getting decimated by injuries again, Baltimore will make it to 8-8, but the roster needs a lot of work to make the small step from there to playoffs.

Cleveland Browns

2015 Record: 3-13. And every bit as bad to watch as you’d expect a 3-13 squad to be.

What’s To Love? Cleveland could well be the most fascinating team in the NFL. No, hear me out here! This is a roster that’s entirely in need of rebuilding. They have one elite player in left tackle Joe Thomas. They have the potential of a near-elite player, if Josh Gordon gets back on the field, which he might. And beyond that? Not much! The new regime therefore traded down loads in the draft, taking a Pokemon-esque “gotta catch ‘em all” approach to high-college-production rookies. Given that the draft can sometimes be a crapshoot, it might just work. Cleveland are several years away from having a team that can compete in the NFL. They’ll probably be picking first overall next year. But they’ve started a project that at least seems to be doing more than just making the same mistakes.

What’s Not To Love? It might, of course, be that they just make different mistakes instead. Either way, this isn’t going to be much of a team to watch this year. At quarterback, Robert Griffin III isn’t the same RGIII that won Offensive Rookie of the Year. Presumably, the Browns eschewed a high draft prospect as much because they didn’t have the team to help one develop as anything else. Griffin has a few offensive weapons, but they’re only a smattering of quality, much like the whole team. They’ll be out-classed repeatedly, especially you think on defense, where the front seven in particular looks weak.

What’ll 2016 Be Like Then? Don’t expect the Browns to finish much better than 2-14. There would be no point in them trying hedge future resources to win now, when at best they’d be looking at 5 or 6 wins. I wouldn’t expect a winning record even if everything goes right until 2019 at the earliest. There is no roster depth here, which is why they’re so fascinating! Cleveland are essentially trying to build a whole new team from scratch.

Draft Tipper: NFC and AFC North

It’s nearly draft time, which means you want an idea of which team’s going to draft which player. We don’t have the expertise to do mock drafts, which even if we did are a massive crapshoot, so what we’re doing this year is identifying a few team needs, and which players might be around for teams with their first and second round pick. It’s educated guesswork, but it’ll be a useful guide for you if you’re not sure who to hope your team drafts. Anyway, let’s start with the NFC and AFC North divisions.

NFC North

Chicago Bears

They Pick: 11th overall
They Need: Cornerback, 3-4 Defensive End, Offensive Tackle, Wide Receiver.

Who might they go for in the first round? Picking 11th overall, they could pick a cornerback in Vernon Hargreaves, a tackle in Ronnie Stanley, or a defensive end in A’Shawn Robinson or Jarran Read. While they’ll want another wide receiver, I don’t think any are quite up to being picked 11th overall. Chicago can afford to wait.

In the second round? Mackensie Alexander or Xavien Howard are possible cornerbacks. If they go for a defensive end, Chris Jones, Hassan Ridgeway and Adolphus Washington may be in play. Offensive tackles like Jason Spriggs, Germain Ifedi and Le’Raven Clark are available. And there will be loads of options for a complementary receiver – Sterling Shepard looks like a quality slot receiver, and Corey Coleman and Will Fuller will be great speed receivers if they slide to there.

Detroit Lions

They Pick: 15th overall
They Need: Wide Receiver, Offensive Tackle, Center, 4-3 Defensive Tackle

Who might they go for in the first round? At wide receiver, this is just about the range for Laquon Treadwell or Josh Docton. Offensive tackle is tricky – Jack Conklin offers value as a potential left tackle there, but if he’s gone, is Taylor Decker a better bet than Riley Reiff? Detroit won’t go center in the first round, but A’Shawn Robinson, Sheldon Rankins, Jarran Reed and Andrew Billings are all in play at defensive tackle.

In the second round? Receivers like Michael Thomas and Tyler Boyd could be Detroit’s thing. There’s also Braxton Miller, but I’m not sure he’d quite fit what Detroit want. As with Chicago, Spriggs, Ifedi and Clark are all in this range at offensive tackle, are Ryan Kelly and Nick Martin at center. At defensive tackle, Vernon Butler, Jonathan Bullard, Kenny Clark and Adolphus Washington could go in this sort of range.

Green Bay Packers

They pick: 27th overall
They Need: Tight End, 3-4 Defensive End, 3-4 Inside Linebacker

Who might they go for in the first round? Some teams draft according to the “best player available” philosophy, whereby they don’t draft to a need, maybe because they don’t need to, or maybe because of a can’t-miss-player. Green Bay drafted Aaron Rodgers in 2005 despite having several more years of Brett Favre to come, and it worked out great. If they don’t just snag a player who’s inexpicably slid, defensive ends like Shaq Lawson and Noah Spence come into play, as do Reggie Ragland and Darron Lee at linebacker.

In the second round? Jaylon Smith may end up in the “best player available” category here, he’s an inside linebacker who will probably miss the 2016 season due to injury, and has a somewhat uncertain future but could well end up one of the best players to come from the draft if he’s fit. Elsewhere, look out for Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper at tight end, Shilique Calhoun at defensive end, and at linebacker, Scooby Wright or Su’a Cravens (if they’re feeling creative – Cravens is sort of half safety, half linebacker).

Minnesota Vikings

They pick: 23rd overall
They need: Wide receiver, many Offensive Linemen, Strong Safety

Who might they go for in the first round? This is prime territory to pick up a wide receiver. Laquon Treadwell and Josh Doctson would both be tasty alongside Stefon Diggs. Tackles like Jack Conklin and Taylor Decker may be available, Germain Ifedi probably will. There probably isn’t a safety worth picking here to pair with Harrison Smith.

In the second round? I think Minnesota will pick receiver first, but if they don’t, Michael Thomas would be a nice fit here, though I think Braxton Miller is too similar to Cordarelle Patterson for Minnesota to go for. On the O-Line, as well as the tackles mentioned for Chicago and Detroit, Cody Whitehair would be a nice fit at guard. At strong safety, Keanu Neal, Darian Thompson and Jeremy Cash are possibilities.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

They pick: 6th overall
They need: Offensive tackle, 3-4 Defensive End, 3-4 Outside Linebacker, Cornerback

Who might they go for in the first round? Baltimore are flooded with options here. Of the very top players, Laremy Tunsil and Jalen Ramsey are two potential targets who will likely already be gone. But, a top tackle like Ronnie Stanley is in play, as are top defensive ends DeForest Buckner and Joey Bosa (who may be more likely to fulfill their linebacker need). They could trade down for an outside linebacker like Leonard Floyd, or draft a top cornerback like Vernon Hargreaves.

In the second round? A tackle like Germain Ifedi is a possibility, and there are many potential 3-4 ends as mentioned with Chicago further up. Pass-rushing linebackers available should include Noah Spence and Yannick Ngakoue, and cornerbacks such as Xavien Howard and Mackensie Alexander are potential picks, though Baltimore are the type of team that may take a flyer on Kendall Fuller – a top-quality cornerback who will miss some if not all of the 2016 season.

Cincinnati Bengals

They pick: 24th overall
They need: Wide receiver, 4-3 Defensive Tackle, 4-3 Defensive End

Who might they go for in the first round? Cincinnati have been shedding secondary receivers recently, so a Laquon Treadwell, Corey Coleman, Will Fuller or Josh Doctson will likely appeal. On defense, big bulky units up the middle like Vernon Butler and Jarran Reed would be welcome, as would scary pass-rushers like Kevin Dodd and Emmanuel Ogbah.

In the second round? Again, there’ll be some decent wide receivers to pick up like Tyler Boyd, though a Braxton Miller-type “versatile” “weapon” might appeal to a team already set at the WR1 slot with AJ Green. Along the defensive line, tackles include people like Chris Jones and Adolphus Washington, and pass rushers will include Shilique Calhoun and Carl Nassib.

Cleveland Browns

They pick: 2nd overall
They need: Quarterback, Wide Receiver, 3-4 Defensive End, 3-4 Outside Linebacker, Safety

Who might they go for in the first round? Cleveland were thought of as favourites to go quarterback prior to the Rams-Titans trade. Now, if their quarterback of choice is off the board, Jalen Ramsey at safety/cornerback would be the choice, though they may pick Laremy Tunsil and leave him at right tackle until their all-pro left tackle Joe Thomas leaves or retires.

In the second round? If they want quarterback here, Connor Cook is in play. Expect either Will Fuller or Corey Coleman to still be available here as a deep threat or slot weapon at wide receiver. They may target Chris Jones or Hassan Ridgeway at defensive tackle, or Noah Spence, Emmanuel Ogbah or Yannick Ngakoue to be in play at outside linebacker. Cleveland would also have their pick of safeties, with Vonn Bell, Keanu Neal and Karl Joseph likely to be available.

EDIT: Well, the first round here’s all change now since the trade where Philadelphia get Cleveland’s second overall pick. Cleveland don’t get a whole heap this year but will in future years. In any case, it changes who Cleveland will go for in the first round. I still think it’s not wide receiver territory, though they may go for Paxton Lynch at quarterback if they like him. More realistically, if DeForest Buckner slides to 8 they may pick him, or a pass-rusher like Shaq Lawson or Leonard Floyd may be in play. But I think they may just go for best player available. Someone like Vernon Hargreaves, Ronnie Stanley or even Ezekiel Elliott may not be one of the Browns’ biggest needs, but they’d still be very good players, presumably.

Pittsburgh Steelers

They pick: 25th overall
They need: Offensive tackle, Nose Tackle, Safety, Cornerback

Who might they go for in the first round? Though Pittsburgh need a left tackle, I’m not sure any will fall within this sort of range. A nose tackle like Vernon Butler or A’Shawn Robinson will be in play. Pittsburgh would have their pick of the safeties mentioned with Cleveland’s second round pick, though a cornerback like William Jackson, Eli Apple or Mackensie Alexander might offer better value.

In the second round? At tackle, players like Jason Spriggs and Le’Raven Clark maybe available, as would nose tackles like Adolphus Washington and Hassan Ridgeway. The best safeties will have gone, but players like Jeremy Cash and Darian Thompson may still offer value. A cornerback like Artie Burns is a potential pick too.

2015 Previews: AFC North

Are you all ready for some Hott AFC North action? Good.

Baltimore Ravens

Last Year: 10-6

Which Way Are They Going: Up.

What’s Good: That offensive line. Seriously, this is a very very good roster, with quality almost everywhere, but those five dudes they put up front to help the skill players create everything? They’re the best. Marshall Yanda, at guard, was rated the 5^th best player in the NFL (all positions being equal) by Pro Football Focus. What does that mean? He’s going to make a hole for the running back to run through. He’s going to stop those huge defensive linemen from affecting Joe Flacco’s throwing. He’s got excellence in the likes of Kelechi Osemele, Ricky Wagner and Eugene Monroe around him, who’ll do the same. And they’ll all do it without fanfare, but with a superbly positive effect. The linebackers are ace too, but I’ve kinda run out of space here.

What’s Possibly Good But Might Not Be: Joe Flacco and Justin Forsett. Flacco, who has become the subject of perhaps the most covertly arch and self-satisfied meme going around football right now, has an incredible record in the playoffs, and a reasonably good one in regular season. The season after he was the Super Bowl, he threw the ball too much and wasn’t great, last year he threw it less and was better. Last year, he had Justin Forsett, a running back who’d done basically nothing since 2008, to be the first effective running back since long before Ray Rice, well…you know all about that, I hope. But, they’ve lost their offensive co-ordinator. I still think there won’t be any problems here for Baltimore, but you never know.

What’s Definitely Not Good: The depth at wide receiver. Steve Smith, in his last season in the league, is the only proven quality receiver. They did have deep threat Torrey Smith, but he left, and anyway the only thing he was really good for was drawing pass interference penalties (seriously, he benefited from something like twice as many yards as any other player on these!) Their slot receiver Marlon Brown’s good for some short gains and first downs, and they spent a first round pick on Breshad Perriman, who has a great name but is ‘raw’ and ‘kind of injured’, so don’t be surprised if it takes him one and a half seasons to start hitting his apparently high potential. Beyond that though? Not so much.

Anything Else: I generally warm to Baltimore for some reason. Probably the purple. But I don’t really know why. John Harbaugh came out and supported Donald Trump’s idea to build a wall to keep Mexicans out. So he can go to hell, but the Ravens will win the division at 11-5 or so.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Last Year: 11-5

Which Way Are They Going: Down a touch.

What’s Good: Le’Veon Bell might be the best running back in the league, and Antonio Brown might be the best receiver. I bloody LOVE Antonio Brown. He’s quick, he’s direct, he’s fun to watch and last year he was so so satisfying to have in your fantasy team. He always has this big, bright smile in mugshots, and in interviews he always seems this genuinely delighted little guy who’s presumably spending half his time meditating to be that chilled out. Obviously Le’Veon Bell was inspired too, since he ended up getting arrested for possession of marijuana and has a two game ban at the start of the season. He’ll still finish in the top 3 for rushing yards.

What’s Possibly Good But Might Not Be: Ryan Shazier. Ryan Shazier is a linebacker who came into last season a little bit hyped at least a little bit, promptly burst onto the scene, then started to look inconsistent, and finally got injured. The Steelers don’t have many playmakers, any big threats, on defense, so if Ryan Shazier can start stopping the run more effectively, batting down some more passes and covering those scary tight ends, he’ll quickly become their no.1 defender. If.

What’s Definitely Not Good: The rest of the defense, especially the secondary. Troy Polamalu retired this season from the strong safety position. Sure he was in decline, but as well as being a lovely soft-spoken man he’s also one of the recent greats at any position. Anyway, the Steelers secondary was awful last season. I’m trying to work out who they’ve signed, and I’m not sure. Are they still starting Cortez Allen? That’s not good. Yeuch. How did this team win 11 games last year with this defense?

Anything Else: I really dislike the Steelers and I really hate Ben Roethlisberger. That’s fine, everyone has to hate some teams and people and like some others. So I thought I’d just lay that out there. I think the Steelers will swap records with the Ravens this year and go 10-6.

Cincinnati Bengals

Last Year: 10-5-1. Woo! We have a tie game! I love tie games, because I’m European.

Which Way Are They Going: Down, somewhat.

What’s Good: AJ Green is one of the best receivers in the league, Andrew Whitworth is one of the best left tackles. The Bengals gave up the third-least sacks in the NFL last year. That’s good! And they got 10 wins despite being ravaged by injuries among their wide receivers and tight ends. Now, with hopefully everyone fit, notably Marvin Jones who as a good no.2 receiver means defences don’t have to put all their coverage players on AJ Green, Andy Dalton should complete more passes. That’s how this works, right?

What’s Possibly Good But Might Not Be: This is generally how I feel about the Bengals. They’ve got this habit, under Marvin Lewis as head coach, of having a roster full of really able players, but just not always putting it together. So, the Bengals won 10 games last year, but for example, against the Browns, Andy Dalton completed 10 out of 33 passes for 86 yards, threw 0 touchdowns but 3 interceptions. This is a Bengals season, it seems like. It’ll probably be good, and you can expect some two-touchdown wins against good teams, and then lose 34-3 to the Titans or someone like that.

What’s Definitely Not Good: Carrying on from the last point really, the Bengals are cursed with being satisfactory. Which is not good. Andy Dalton is a satisfactory quarterback, most of the time, but he is not good enough to take the Bengals to a Super Bowl, which is a shame considering they’ve had four out of four opportunities to get there while he’s been quarterbacking for them. Yet to win a playoff game, famously. The Bengals, you just feel like their existential malaise is going to lead them into terminal decline.

Anything Else: That orange kit with the tiger stripes? Roar. I love that kit. But the Bengals will go 8-8 at a push, possibly a tad worse.

Cleveland Browns

Last Year: 7-9

Which Way Are They Going: Down. So very far down.

What’s Good: Joe Thomas, their left tackle, is a future Hall of Famer, and though he’s probably heading towards the twilight of his career, at least he’s not giving up sacks. The offensive line in general’s fine. Actually, there are a few quality players on this team, like Joe Haden at cornerback, and in Andrew Hawkins they have one of the best slot receivers in the league.

What’s Possibly Good But Might Not Be: The pass defence is pretty decent in general, and should probably carry on being so. Even with top-10 pick cornerback Justin Gilbert basically being unable to follow receivers when they changed direction, they still ranked 8^th in the league in yards given up. The pass rush is perfectly fine, the safeties are pretty decent. You know, there’s some ability there.

What’s Definitely Not Good: The skill positions. Oh dear god. Brian Hoyer, who was probably the most likeable thing about this team, was jettisoned in the offseason. He’d been decent until the last four games, when he was atrocious. But they replaced him with Josh McCown, who was pretty poor for Tampa Bay last season. He quarterbacked a team to the worst record in the league, and he’s in more work? Well, it’s either than or Johnny Manziel. Now, Manziel might well become a decent quarterback one day. He’s young and it’s still possible and it sounds as if he might have woken up a bit. But he’s not there this season, so get a veteran in. But McCown is rubbish. Their runners are hot garbage, with Terrance West being a sulky moody sod who turned up to the new season ‘out of shape’. Their non-Andrew Hawkins receivers are Dwayne Bowe (0 touchdowns in 2014), Brian Hartline (474 receiving yards in 2014 as a starter – that’s 96th in the league), and a bunch of meh players from last year like Taylor Gabriel and Travis Benjamin.

Anything Else: I thought the Browns were a pretty nice underdog team to sympathy cheer for, until they cut Brian Hoyer last year. I like Brian Hoyer. This team will go 3-13 and that’ll be that.