2016 Previews – AFC North

Ah, the AFC North. With three competitive, chippy teams, whose games are full of fight, acrimony, controversy, and fun. Oh, the Browns are here too.

Cincinnati Bengals

2015 record: 12-4, followed by yet another loss in their first playoff game, this time in particularly acrimonious circumstances, to the Steelers.

What’s To Love? This remains one of the deepest rosters in the league. Cincinnati have genuine stars in AJ Green and Geno Atkins, a host of very good starters like George Iloka, Andrew Whitworth, Tyler Eifert and Jeremy Hill. Andy Dalton had his best season last year, prior to getting injured. Replacement players are lined up for those who have left, like Shawn Williams at safety, and Tyler Boyd at wide receiver. Cincinnati might be struggling to kick on past the playoffs, but they’re doing everything right to put themselves into position to.

What’s Not To Love? The fact that the Bengals have now had several years of supremely talented rosters that have yet to take them beyond the first playoff game. It’s a tricky position for the fanbase: Cincinnati were dysfunctional and abysmal for years and years, and have now been very good, reliable, and providing lots of victories for their fanbase. I mean heck, San Diego fans comparing their team now to the La’Dainian Tomlinson years would tell you not to complain when the going’s good, but it can’t help but get everyone down that no matter what Cincinnati do to get themselves towards Super Bowl contention, they never get that playoff win.

What’ll 2016 Be Like Then? Frankly, it’s issues like that which every year make it hard to predict that Cincinnati will match the previous year. But they always do. Nonetheless, if we’re being cold and dispassionate Cincinnati look a touch below where they were last year – losing two draft picks already to injury (though neither were going to be starters), along with the injury-proneness of some top players like Eifert. I think 10-6 should be what we expect them to get.

Pittsburgh Steelers

2015 record: 10-6, including a section midway through the season where offensive coordinator Todd Haley forgot you could call any other play than “deep pass”.

What’s To Love? This offense has the ability to put up roughly 8,000 points a game. Antonio Brown is the game’s best wide receiver. Le’Veon Bell, when he’s not suspended, is close to the best running back. Ben Roethlisberger still has a huge arm, good accuracy and is somehow impossible to sack. Offensive coordinator Todd Haley just loves to pile on the points. While some teams might suffer without a No. 2 receiver like Martavis Bryant being suspended, the Steelers have Markus Wheaton and Sammie Coates. Not too bad!

What’s Not To Love? Pittsburgh have been struggling on defense for a few years now. Last year, Bud Dupree looked like a steal when he slid to them in the draft, but he underwhelmed as a rookie. More damningly, previous first-round pick Jarvis Jones was still being outplayed by a 37-year old James Harrison last year. Ryan Shazier looks promising at inside linebacker, but the team is stuffed with underwhelming players: Senquez Golson, Arthur Moats, Stephon Tuitt.

What’ll 2016 Be Like Then? An explosive offense and a defense no worse than “underwhelming” still marks Pittsburgh out as one of the best teams in the league. While an injury to Roethlisberger or – especially – Antonio Brown will be a big puncture in the Steelers’ title hopes, there’s enough variety to the offense that they should score a heck of a lot of points. Sure, the defense is not great, but it’ll be enough to see them to an 11-5 record, I suspect.

Baltimore Ravens

2015 Record: 5-11, which if you read as 5 minus 11 is roughly how many first-string starters Baltimore had left by mid-season.

What’s To Love? Getting all those players back from injury, really. Joe Flacco, Steve Smith, Justin Forsett, Terrell Suggs, Jeremy Zuttah, Breshad Perriman and a whole host more, should all be in the starting lineup. To be honest, outside of Suggs there aren’t many elite players there, but Baltimore lost so many solid starters – Flacco and Smith particularly constituted huge losses – that Baltimore’s arrow can only go up. Add in to which they discovered some replacement players who should contribute well (Kamar Aiken springs immediate to mind), and things should be ok in Baltimore.

What’s Not To Love? Like I said, a lack of elite players. Baltimore have a huge amount of their salary cap tied up in Joe Flacco. Flacco’s a very good quarterback, but has only historically really turned it on the playoffs. All fine and dandy, but this isn’t a good enough squad to expect to get there. The best players outside Flacco are veterans Smith and Suggs – combined age 70 – and while there’s some promising youth (namely CJ Mosley), this isn’t an overly well-put-together squad.

What’ll 2016 Be Like Then? Despite all that, this roster is good enough to give anyone a game. You can expect wily playcalling, and the older players do tend to have the absolutely perfect competitive work ethic – Steve Smith in particular. Short of getting decimated by injuries again, Baltimore will make it to 8-8, but the roster needs a lot of work to make the small step from there to playoffs.

Cleveland Browns

2015 Record: 3-13. And every bit as bad to watch as you’d expect a 3-13 squad to be.

What’s To Love? Cleveland could well be the most fascinating team in the NFL. No, hear me out here! This is a roster that’s entirely in need of rebuilding. They have one elite player in left tackle Joe Thomas. They have the potential of a near-elite player, if Josh Gordon gets back on the field, which he might. And beyond that? Not much! The new regime therefore traded down loads in the draft, taking a Pokemon-esque “gotta catch ‘em all” approach to high-college-production rookies. Given that the draft can sometimes be a crapshoot, it might just work. Cleveland are several years away from having a team that can compete in the NFL. They’ll probably be picking first overall next year. But they’ve started a project that at least seems to be doing more than just making the same mistakes.

What’s Not To Love? It might, of course, be that they just make different mistakes instead. Either way, this isn’t going to be much of a team to watch this year. At quarterback, Robert Griffin III isn’t the same RGIII that won Offensive Rookie of the Year. Presumably, the Browns eschewed a high draft prospect as much because they didn’t have the team to help one develop as anything else. Griffin has a few offensive weapons, but they’re only a smattering of quality, much like the whole team. They’ll be out-classed repeatedly, especially you think on defense, where the front seven in particular looks weak.

What’ll 2016 Be Like Then? Don’t expect the Browns to finish much better than 2-14. There would be no point in them trying hedge future resources to win now, when at best they’d be looking at 5 or 6 wins. I wouldn’t expect a winning record even if everything goes right until 2019 at the earliest. There is no roster depth here, which is why they’re so fascinating! Cleveland are essentially trying to build a whole new team from scratch.

Draft Tipper: NFC and AFC North

It’s nearly draft time, which means you want an idea of which team’s going to draft which player. We don’t have the expertise to do mock drafts, which even if we did are a massive crapshoot, so what we’re doing this year is identifying a few team needs, and which players might be around for teams with their first and second round pick. It’s educated guesswork, but it’ll be a useful guide for you if you’re not sure who to hope your team drafts. Anyway, let’s start with the NFC and AFC North divisions.

NFC North

Chicago Bears

They Pick: 11th overall
They Need: Cornerback, 3-4 Defensive End, Offensive Tackle, Wide Receiver.

Who might they go for in the first round? Picking 11th overall, they could pick a cornerback in Vernon Hargreaves, a tackle in Ronnie Stanley, or a defensive end in A’Shawn Robinson or Jarran Read. While they’ll want another wide receiver, I don’t think any are quite up to being picked 11th overall. Chicago can afford to wait.

In the second round? Mackensie Alexander or Xavien Howard are possible cornerbacks. If they go for a defensive end, Chris Jones, Hassan Ridgeway and Adolphus Washington may be in play. Offensive tackles like Jason Spriggs, Germain Ifedi and Le’Raven Clark are available. And there will be loads of options for a complementary receiver – Sterling Shepard looks like a quality slot receiver, and Corey Coleman and Will Fuller will be great speed receivers if they slide to there.

Detroit Lions

They Pick: 15th overall
They Need: Wide Receiver, Offensive Tackle, Center, 4-3 Defensive Tackle

Who might they go for in the first round? At wide receiver, this is just about the range for Laquon Treadwell or Josh Docton. Offensive tackle is tricky – Jack Conklin offers value as a potential left tackle there, but if he’s gone, is Taylor Decker a better bet than Riley Reiff? Detroit won’t go center in the first round, but A’Shawn Robinson, Sheldon Rankins, Jarran Reed and Andrew Billings are all in play at defensive tackle.

In the second round? Receivers like Michael Thomas and Tyler Boyd could be Detroit’s thing. There’s also Braxton Miller, but I’m not sure he’d quite fit what Detroit want. As with Chicago, Spriggs, Ifedi and Clark are all in this range at offensive tackle, are Ryan Kelly and Nick Martin at center. At defensive tackle, Vernon Butler, Jonathan Bullard, Kenny Clark and Adolphus Washington could go in this sort of range.

Green Bay Packers

They pick: 27th overall
They Need: Tight End, 3-4 Defensive End, 3-4 Inside Linebacker

Who might they go for in the first round? Some teams draft according to the “best player available” philosophy, whereby they don’t draft to a need, maybe because they don’t need to, or maybe because of a can’t-miss-player. Green Bay drafted Aaron Rodgers in 2005 despite having several more years of Brett Favre to come, and it worked out great. If they don’t just snag a player who’s inexpicably slid, defensive ends like Shaq Lawson and Noah Spence come into play, as do Reggie Ragland and Darron Lee at linebacker.

In the second round? Jaylon Smith may end up in the “best player available” category here, he’s an inside linebacker who will probably miss the 2016 season due to injury, and has a somewhat uncertain future but could well end up one of the best players to come from the draft if he’s fit. Elsewhere, look out for Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper at tight end, Shilique Calhoun at defensive end, and at linebacker, Scooby Wright or Su’a Cravens (if they’re feeling creative – Cravens is sort of half safety, half linebacker).

Minnesota Vikings

They pick: 23rd overall
They need: Wide receiver, many Offensive Linemen, Strong Safety

Who might they go for in the first round? This is prime territory to pick up a wide receiver. Laquon Treadwell and Josh Doctson would both be tasty alongside Stefon Diggs. Tackles like Jack Conklin and Taylor Decker may be available, Germain Ifedi probably will. There probably isn’t a safety worth picking here to pair with Harrison Smith.

In the second round? I think Minnesota will pick receiver first, but if they don’t, Michael Thomas would be a nice fit here, though I think Braxton Miller is too similar to Cordarelle Patterson for Minnesota to go for. On the O-Line, as well as the tackles mentioned for Chicago and Detroit, Cody Whitehair would be a nice fit at guard. At strong safety, Keanu Neal, Darian Thompson and Jeremy Cash are possibilities.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

They pick: 6th overall
They need: Offensive tackle, 3-4 Defensive End, 3-4 Outside Linebacker, Cornerback

Who might they go for in the first round? Baltimore are flooded with options here. Of the very top players, Laremy Tunsil and Jalen Ramsey are two potential targets who will likely already be gone. But, a top tackle like Ronnie Stanley is in play, as are top defensive ends DeForest Buckner and Joey Bosa (who may be more likely to fulfill their linebacker need). They could trade down for an outside linebacker like Leonard Floyd, or draft a top cornerback like Vernon Hargreaves.

In the second round? A tackle like Germain Ifedi is a possibility, and there are many potential 3-4 ends as mentioned with Chicago further up. Pass-rushing linebackers available should include Noah Spence and Yannick Ngakoue, and cornerbacks such as Xavien Howard and Mackensie Alexander are potential picks, though Baltimore are the type of team that may take a flyer on Kendall Fuller – a top-quality cornerback who will miss some if not all of the 2016 season.

Cincinnati Bengals

They pick: 24th overall
They need: Wide receiver, 4-3 Defensive Tackle, 4-3 Defensive End

Who might they go for in the first round? Cincinnati have been shedding secondary receivers recently, so a Laquon Treadwell, Corey Coleman, Will Fuller or Josh Doctson will likely appeal. On defense, big bulky units up the middle like Vernon Butler and Jarran Reed would be welcome, as would scary pass-rushers like Kevin Dodd and Emmanuel Ogbah.

In the second round? Again, there’ll be some decent wide receivers to pick up like Tyler Boyd, though a Braxton Miller-type “versatile” “weapon” might appeal to a team already set at the WR1 slot with AJ Green. Along the defensive line, tackles include people like Chris Jones and Adolphus Washington, and pass rushers will include Shilique Calhoun and Carl Nassib.

Cleveland Browns

They pick: 2nd overall
They need: Quarterback, Wide Receiver, 3-4 Defensive End, 3-4 Outside Linebacker, Safety

Who might they go for in the first round? Cleveland were thought of as favourites to go quarterback prior to the Rams-Titans trade. Now, if their quarterback of choice is off the board, Jalen Ramsey at safety/cornerback would be the choice, though they may pick Laremy Tunsil and leave him at right tackle until their all-pro left tackle Joe Thomas leaves or retires.

In the second round? If they want quarterback here, Connor Cook is in play. Expect either Will Fuller or Corey Coleman to still be available here as a deep threat or slot weapon at wide receiver. They may target Chris Jones or Hassan Ridgeway at defensive tackle, or Noah Spence, Emmanuel Ogbah or Yannick Ngakoue to be in play at outside linebacker. Cleveland would also have their pick of safeties, with Vonn Bell, Keanu Neal and Karl Joseph likely to be available.

EDIT: Well, the first round here’s all change now since the trade where Philadelphia get Cleveland’s second overall pick. Cleveland don’t get a whole heap this year but will in future years. In any case, it changes who Cleveland will go for in the first round. I still think it’s not wide receiver territory, though they may go for Paxton Lynch at quarterback if they like him. More realistically, if DeForest Buckner slides to 8 they may pick him, or a pass-rusher like Shaq Lawson or Leonard Floyd may be in play. But I think they may just go for best player available. Someone like Vernon Hargreaves, Ronnie Stanley or even Ezekiel Elliott may not be one of the Browns’ biggest needs, but they’d still be very good players, presumably.

Pittsburgh Steelers

They pick: 25th overall
They need: Offensive tackle, Nose Tackle, Safety, Cornerback

Who might they go for in the first round? Though Pittsburgh need a left tackle, I’m not sure any will fall within this sort of range. A nose tackle like Vernon Butler or A’Shawn Robinson will be in play. Pittsburgh would have their pick of the safeties mentioned with Cleveland’s second round pick, though a cornerback like William Jackson, Eli Apple or Mackensie Alexander might offer better value.

In the second round? At tackle, players like Jason Spriggs and Le’Raven Clark maybe available, as would nose tackles like Adolphus Washington and Hassan Ridgeway. The best safeties will have gone, but players like Jeremy Cash and Darian Thompson may still offer value. A cornerback like Artie Burns is a potential pick too.

Wild Card Previews by Roughing the Passer

It’s wild card week in the playoffs, and Roughing the Passer is back from wherever the heck he went, and he’s back previewing action. Where did he go? There are many rumours. Maybe he was on safari in the Serengeti, or lounging on a Cayman Islands beach. Or maybe he was somewhere in Michigan, standing out in the cold, wearing a Honolulu blue jersey with the number 81 on the back, barely audible, chanting “please don’t retire Calvin, please don’t retire Calvin” over and over… Anyway. The games. I was hoping he was going to predict the winners this week, but no. Chickenshit.

Kansas City at Houston – Saturday ‘afternoon’

This match will be a hard one to watch, because it will serve to remind me of the wasted anguish of my own football-watching season (I’m a Lions fan, so that’s every season). The Chiefs will rile me up because I watched them make the Lions look like amateurs at Wembley earlier this year, despite the fact they had a record about as bad as ours at the time, and we had experience of playing (and winning!) in foggy London town. To be fair, the Chiefs have gone on an absolute tear since then, coming to this game with double-digit winning streak (the Lions have been sneaky good too, except when it counts – TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE DUDES), and even safe old Alex Smith looks kind of frisky. It’s ironic that San Francisco ditched Smith in favour of a leg-powered shiny new model (wherefore art thou now, #7tormcoming? (Ed – somewhere quoting Iain Duncan Smith on his twitter bio)), when Smith is now running all over the shop like a gormless, white Cam Newton.

The Texans on the other hand managed to win a division that included the Colts and the Jags, both of whom I’ve agreed to see play at Wembley next season. Why have I done this? When neither were good enough to overcome this medicore Texans team, a team so flawed that they named their starting quarterback for the season, then ditched him after just an hour of play, in favour of a guy that couldn’t reliably find his way to team flights on time, let alone the endzone? Andrew Luck better be healthy by October. I want to see weekly scans of his spleen, or whatever it is he’s messed up.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – Saturday ‘evening’

My god, I’m angry at this Steelers team. As if Big Ben weren’t a reprehensible enough human being, he single-handedly destroyed my fantasy season by striding into the final game, against the lowly Ravens of all teams, and racking up all of 3.8 points. What? Ameer Abdullah scored me more than that, and he’s physically incapable of holding onto the ball. I’m not even sure he has fingers. It’s almost impossible for Ben to score so poorly. I have to assume he was paid off (and I put nothing past my fantasy opponent, there are no depths to which he wouldn’t stoop). As such, I hope they get blown up here, but instead they’ll probably throw for 500 yards and half a dozen touchdowns. Scumbags.

I feel kind of sorry for the Bengals, they’re this year’s Arizona Cardinals – a strong showing all season, capped with a devastating injury blow that might just end their championship aspirations. A lot of people think that the ideal karmic display here would be to win this, only for Andy Dalton to return and THEN lose in the next week, but I think that’s too cruel. Instead, just have them lose here, and let that mighty record of playoff failure continue for another year. You don’t mess with perfection like that.

Seattle at Minnesota – Sunday ‘afternoon’

Tanking is a unique phenomenon in American sports, where, because there’s no risk of relegation to a lower league, teams can deliberately perform badly in order to gain the delicious rewards of better draft picks, and a greater chance of reinvigorating your team. I don’t think it’s that prevalent in the NFL, where players want to create good game film and coaches want to preserve their jobs, but you have to think that both the Vikings and the Packers wanted to lose last week. The Seahawks just find ways to win (Superbowl XLIX excepted), and they’re coming in hot right now. Beastmode is gearing up, their receivers have learnt how to get down field, and Russell Wilson has made me want to drink his bubble water (this is not a euphemism). I assume it’s the water that’s making him so good. If it’s just “not having sex with Ciara”, you’d expect that to be true of every other quarterback who is not having sex with Ciara. Unless…

Anyway, I don’t think Bridgewater is ever going to be all that (Ed – fuck off), so make the most of Adrian Peterson while you can, Vikings. Maybe he’ll run you right into the Superbowl, and your sense of shame will force you to perform seppuku in the stands as you watch the scumbag hoist the Lombardi aloft.

Green Bay at Washington – Sunday ‘evening’

YOU LIKE THAT? YOU LIKE THAT?! You might have to! Because Kirk Cousins (a Michigan State Spartan, thus someone I am compelled via family ties to root for) is balling out right now, and even though their division was a hot mess, they won it fair and square. I don’t really know what it is they’re doing to win – just, not losing, I think – but since it’s the playoffs, and anything can happen, I think they might just pull this out of the bag. The oddsmakers have Green Bay favoured here, but I think we’re letting history cloud our judgement. Yes, Aaron Rodgers is freaky good. Yes, Green Bay know how to win. But come on. They’ve been downright ugly for stretches this year. They lost to the Lions at Lambeau! They got LITERALLY torn apart by the Cardinals! It’s not just a Jordy Nelson thing. This team is vulnerable. And now the Washington Racists can slime their way past them and notch up their first playoff win in ages. Which I’m supporting? Christ, but the NFL makes moral relativists of us all.

Oh hey, what happened to RGIII by the way? Is he still a thing? I want to see a reality show with him and Johnny Football next year, maybe just reviewing Texas divebars or something.

2015 Playoffs: Team by Team

Twelve teams have made the playoffs then, and only one can triumph. Who’ll that be? Well, we don’t know, and frankly our predictions are probably going to be way off. BUT let’s predict anyway, because it’s fun and interesting to write and read.

NFC Playoff Teams

#1 Seed – Carolina
Strengths: Multiple. Cam Newton’s an incredible quarterback, possessed with a rocket arm, rushing ability, big-play ability, you name it. Despite having a relatively low accuracy percentage (in part brought about by throwing more deep passes, and having no receivers who can catch), he’s been careful enough with the football, and has accounted for 45 touchdowns this season. The defense are monsters – Kawaan Short is one of the best interior linemen in the league, Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis are an intelligent, instinctive and brutish linebacker duo, and Josh Norman is a shutdown corner (most of the time)
Weaknesses: There are a few spots lacking in depth around the roster. Who’ll play corner opposite Josh Norman is still up in the air. As good as they are on the defensive interior (linemen and linebackers), the outside pass-rush is only so-so. And their run game may suffer without Jonathan Stewart, who’s injury-prone and injured.
Will they win it? They’re a pretty good shout to. I mean, they’ve only lost once all year, they’re accomplished in all areas of the game. It’ll take a very specific gameplan while manages to isolate their few weaknesses to beat them (but then, doesn’t that always?).

#2 Seed – Arizona
Strengths: Again, multiple. Carson Palmer is enjoying a career-best year having only just turned 36. He has a resurgent Larry Fitzgerald to throw to, as well as two other great starters in Michael Floyd and John Brown, and a bevvy of other good contributors. The run game has been great whichever Johnson has started (Chris and David). Only one team (Carolina) has scored more points this season. Their defense is strong, and Dwight Freeney spins his way to sack after sack after sack. They’re so versatile too – before his injury, Tyrann Mathieu played a cornerback-safety hybrid role that teams just couldn’t deal with. Deone Bucannon is part linebacker, part strong safety.
Weaknesses: There didn’t look like any, but they got absolutely destroyed by Seattle in the last week of the season. Don’t forget they were playing for the number 1 seed, so it’s not like they could afford to take the week off. The offensive line is great in the run game but you worry about it in pass protection. And those injuries are starting to mount up.
Will they win it? I was all ready to say “yes” loudly here before the Seattle game. One game shouldn’t mean a huge amount. It’s just that Arizona’ll have to beat Seattle to get to the Super Bowl in the first place. And if not Seattle, then another team who are strong in similar areas: Carolina.

#3 Seed – Minnesota
Strengths: I love watching this defense so much. They get so much penetration through the middle with Linval Joseph, are terrifying on the outside with Everson Griffen, Danielle Hunter and Brian Robison racking up the sacks. Then they have Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr waiting in the wings behind the line. Oh, and just the small matter of Harrison Smith, who might be the league’s best safety, sitting behind them. Add in to that the league’s leading rusher, Adrian Peterson, and you see why they made the playoffs.
Weaknesses: Outside of Peterson, the offense does look a bit dicky. The line has done surprisingly well but struggles in pass protection. Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t kicked on this year, and though he doesn’t cost Minnesota games, he’s not going to win many on his own. Of course, without any top receivers, he’s limited in his development, but either way the offense needs the defense to keep them ahead in games.
Will they win it? No, sorry. They play Seattle first up, who are as good on defense but more threatening on offense. The only hope is that their defense will destroy Seattle’s weak offensive line, but it’s not as if Seattle won’t do the same back in return. Minnesota are young and will improve, but they’re too one-dimensional on offense right now.

#4 Seed – Washington
Strengths: The reasoning side of my brain is trying to stop me writing “Kirk Cousins” here, because that doesn’t make sense. But Cousins has been great the second half of the season. But why is that? Well, the offensive line has seriously kicked on. DeSean Jackson came back from injury and having him as a deep threat keeps defences on their toes. Ryan Kerrigan is also playing fantastically, rushing from the edge.
Weaknesses: There’s a lot of just okay players in this team. The secondary in particular is struggling – Will Blackmon (cut by the Seahawks preseason) has appeared too much, and they’ve just signed Cary Williams (cut by the Seahawks midseason) to provide depth. While the rush linebackers are fine, the defensive line also is a bit something and nothing, even with Terrance “Pot Roast” Knighton.
Will they win it? No, but they might win a game (or two) and surprise people. They haven’t beaten a single team with a winning record this year, and have only played two playoff bound teams (Carolina and New England), games they lost by a combined score of 71-26.

#5 Seed – Green Bay
Strengths: The defense, oddly. Mike Daniels has been brutal enough up front to go from “decent starter” to getting a big tasty new contract. Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers are still stars at linebacker, Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix is ever improving at safety, and Sam Shields is a good head cornerback. They also have a guy called Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, who might be the best quarterback in the league (even if he hasn’t always played like it this year).
Weaknesses: The offense has been bizarrely bereft this year. Losing a receiver as good as Jordy Nelson to a preseason injury is going to hurt any team, but we all thought Randall Cobb and Davante Adams would step up. Cobb partly has, Adams definitely hasn’t. These last two years, Eddie Lacy looked to have given Green Bay a solid run game, yet this year he just hasn’t cut it often enough, struggling with weight and injury.
Will they win it? I don’t think so. Aaron Rodgers always gives them a chance, and they’re coached fantastically. But there are some teams against whom good coaching and planning just can’t overcome the performance gap, and that’ll be Green Bay’s downfall.

#6 Seed – Seattle
Strengths: We all know about the defense. About how Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril are terrifying up front, about how Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor are fantastic in the back end. But in addition to all these, check out KJ Wright at linebacker, who’s stout against the run and the pass. Russell Wilson has been fantastic in the second half of the season, as has Doug Baldwin. Marshawn Lynch should be back for the playoffs, but even if he isn’t, and even with Thomas Rawls also out for the season, Christine Michael has finally looked like the runner the world thought he was since entering the lineup these last few weeks.
Weaknesses: Sweet lord, the offensive line. For the first half of the season, it legitimately looked like they were trying to get Russell Wilson killed. Maybe he scammed them into buying some of his Fake Bullshit Water, or something. Also, outside of Doug Baldwin, the receivers are the sort of players who need Russell Wilson to do most of the work in them getting the ball. Jermaine Kearse, Luke Willson and co are okay, but okay’s not that good in the playoffs.
Will they win it? They certainly could. Russell Wilson’s the best quarterback you can have if your offensive line’s bad, and this is a team that can match up well against anyone on its day. If they’re to win it, I think it’ll be because the run defense makes opponents too one-dimensional and easier to defend.

AFC Playoff Teams:

#1 Seed – Denver
Strengths: Denver have the best defense in the NFL and it isn’t even close. At cornerback, Chris Harris and Aqib Talib are both going to the pro bowl, and Bradley Roby’s a good third cornerback. At safety, TJ Ward is probably the most underrated player on this team. At linebacker, Von Miller. Holy shit, Von Miller is terrifyingly good. DeMarcus Ware hasn’t been at his best this season but that’s a terrifying pass rush. And then they have Brandon Marshall (no, not that one) and Danny Trevathan at inside linebacker, which is also pretty terrifying. Wow.
Weaknesses: How can you be a number 1 seed and not know who your starting quarterback is. Peyton Manning has been rebuilt but all the parts aren’t quite performing at maximum efficiency. Brock Osweiler is as so-so as his name is bizarre. At least the running game’s coming good, because although those two receivers (Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders) are strengths, they’ve had a few cases of the dropsies lately.
Will they win it? Teams with a middling offense generally need an all-world defense to triumph, and Denver certainly have one of those. They’ve won several low-scoring contests, and have overtime wins against New England and Cincinnati already, plus a more comfortable one over Green Bay. Also, the running game has started to click these last few weeks, which is a tad portentous for other teams.

#2 Seed – New England
Strengths: Tom Brady, who when he’s not squirming about Donald Trump, finds the time to run an efficient offense, broken up with passes to their other strength, Rob Gronkowski. Actually, it’s a bit unfair on the well-run defense to lead with Brady. Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins are the sort of players you don’t notice who win you games just by shutting down options for the opposition. Collins can tackle, cover, do anything really. But there’s quality across the defense: no team would sniff at Rob Ninkovich, Dont’a Hightower, Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung.
Weaknesses: WOW that’s a lot of players on injured reserve. Notably, their best tackle Nate Solder is on injured reserve, right tackle Sebastian Vollmer is in-again-out-again, their backup LaAdrian Waddle, cut by the O-line-poor Lions, isn’t fully fit, nor is starting guard Josh Kline. Oh, and Brady got a high ankle sprain in the week. Their run game’s been poor since Dion Lewis went on season-ending injured reserve too.
Will they win it? While my shamelessly biased side says “I hope not”, they are the Patriots and so they can always win it. A hobbled Tom Brady is still a threat to anyone, Bill Bellichick is still an excellent head coach, albeit one with a Mourinho-sized dark side (or maybe “because he’s” rather than “albeit”, and that defense is going to be tricky for anyone to unpick.

#3 Seed – Cincinnati
Strengths: This is a well-run, deep team with balance across the roster, high calibre head coach and coordinators, and a sweet uniform whenever they turn out in orange. AJ Green and Tyler Eifert are top drawer wide receiver and tight end prototypes. Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard are the best running back one-two punch around. Geno Atkins is one heck of a destructive defensive lineman. Reggie Nelson, Carlos Dunlap, George Iloka et al are solid starters. Andrew Whitworth is a star tackle finally going to his first Pro Bowl. Andy Dalton’s finally performing at a high level as a quarterback.
Weaknesses: At least he was. Then he got injured. Now last year’s fifth-round pick AJ McCarron has to steer his team through games. He was always going to be at least a game manager, but he has to quickly develop the ability to do more than that (the potential is there). And, for all that this is a well-built roster, outside of Atkins and Green there are no superstars here. That wouldn’t be a problem with early season Dalton quarterbacking, but they might just need to be a tiny bit better to make it.
Will they win it? Doubt it, but stranger things have happened. They’ll need the odd opponent to underperform, and a few of the solid players to have star performances, but the depth is there. Dalton should be back if they win their first game, so a lot will hinge on that.

#4 Seed – Houston
Strengths: JJ Watt and DeAndre Hopkins, basically. Especially Watt, for whom a down year would constitute “not winning Defensive Player of the Year”. He destroys all but the stoutest double-teams, and if he destroys that, he destroys your quarterback to the tune of 17.5 sacks this year. Oh, and he has Whitney Mercilus alongside him, who’s pretty darned good. Hopkins is an elite wide receiver, and no other skill position players on this team come close. He creates separation, he wins contested catches, he’s very reliable.
Weaknesses: Houston won the weakest division in the NFL, and they’re the weakest team in the playoffs. Like Washington, there’s a bucketload of mediocrity here. Without their best offensive linemen (Duane Brown, just this week gone to injured reserve), pass rushers will severely test their perfectly fine but no better quarterback, Brian Hoyer. The cornerbacks are fairly decent, but they’re weak at safety. The running game’s been so-so ever since Arian Foster went on injured reserve, and none of the tight ends are particular threats.
Will they win it? No. There aren’t enough good players, and whereas the roster’s well-coached, that’s not enough. JJ Watt’ll give people scares, Hopkins’ll get a big chunk of yards, but not much else will happen.

#5 Seed – Kansas City
Strengths: The defense is, again, spectacular (noticing a theme with some of these teams?). Star pass rusher Justin Houston’s had a season disrupted by injury and it still hasn’t stopped them. Tamba Hali and Dontari Poe are the stars of the front seven, Eric Berry challenges Harrison Smith for the best safety in the NFL despite being cancer free for less than six months, and cornerback Marcus Peters will probably win Defensive Rookie of the Year. On offense, Jeremy Maclin has finally given them a star at wide receiver.
Weaknesses: The offensive line is only so-so, which is mitigated somewhat by quarterback Alex Smith being a fan of the short pass, but still is a concern. Smith himself isn’t a deep threat, which limits their passing game. In fact, the Chiefs only rank 27th across the league in yards gained on offense, so they’ll have to win attritional battles to progress.
Will they win it? Do you know what, don’t rule it out. My instinct is to say “no way” because they look a bit anaemic on offense, but delve a bit deeper and you see a solid run game and clock control. Andy Reid and Bob Sutton are a great head coach and defensive coordinator and they’re getting the most from this team. Every team will find them tough to beat, and they’ve just won ten on the trot to get here.

#6 Seed – Pittsburgh
Strengths: Offense. Hoooo boy do they love slinging the ball long. When your three wide receivers are the excellent Antonio Brown, the very good Martavis Bryant, and the also good Markus Wheaton, things look good for you. One interesting stat: they’re 8-for-9 this season on fourth down conversions. 89%. The next best is 67%. What does that mean? Uh…not sure, but this team has been putting on offensive splashes every week, so it’s fun to watch at least.
Weaknesses: That defense looks like it could crack at any minute. The secondary is one brainfart away from giving up a touchdown on any pass, it seems. The pass-rush has been so-so. In fact, the defense ranks 21st in yards per game. The real worry though? They’ve run the best fantastically all season, whether with Le’Veon Bell or DeAngelo Williams. But Bell was lost earlier in the season, and Williams is currently a bit knacked. Third choice Fitzgerald Toussaint came in for the last game of the season and was bobbins. If the run game dies, I think Pittsburgh look distinctly beatable.
Will they win it? I just don’t think the defense is good enough. A well-balanced team with a good pass rush and secondary will limit the Steelers on offense, and if that team also has a good passing attack (as several of those teams do), it’s going to be distinctly peaky for Pittsburgh.

2015: Four Games To Go

Aka “Oo-er, it’s nearly playoff time”.

The Carolina Panthers became the first team to clinch a playoff spot this weekend past, beating New Orleans 41-38 to also win the NFC South and stay unbeaten on the season, with 12 wins and 0 losses. Behind them, it’s still uncertain, so let’s have a look at what we’ve got.

A Bit About Who Gets In The Playoffs

To start with, if you don’t know how the playoffs are decided, here’s who gets in:

• The winners of each ‘division’ (e.g. AFC South, NFC West etc)
• The two teams in each ‘conference’ (AFC, NFC) who have the best record (as in, who has won the most games and played against the teams who have, overall, won the most games too), but didn’t win their division.

The playoffs are split between AFC and NFC – if you’re in the NFC, you won’t play anyone in the AFC until the Super Bowl. Within each split, the six teams are seeded, and here’s how the seeding is decided:

• The winners of each division will be seeded 1 to 4, according to who has the best record for the season.
• The two other teams to qualify – known as ‘wildcards’, are seeded 5 and 6, with the team with the better record of the two being seeded 5.

So then you’ve got six teams, and you’ve got them seeded. In the first round of the playoffs, the 3rd seed will host the 6th seed, and the 4th seed will host the 5th seed. In the next round of playoffs, the 1st seed will host whichever of the two previous winners had the lowest seed, with the 2nd seed hosting the other team. The winners of those two play each other in the conference championship game, with the highest remaining seed hosting the game.

Then, of course, the two conference champions play each other in the Superb Owl. Sorry, Super Bowl. Super Bowl.

So, Who’s Getting There From the NFC This Year?

Well, let’s look at the NFC, because it’s probably the easiest to predict. As stated in the introduction, the Panthers (12-0) are there already, and they’ll be joined soon by the Arizona Cardinals (10-2), who have three wins more than anyone else in the NFC West and will probably win two games out of their last four at least to tie it up. In The NFC North, both the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings have 8-4 records, but the Packers have a significantly easier schedule than the Vikings, so the smart money’s on them to win that division. The NFC East is just dreadful, though. Washington, the Philadelphia Eagles and the New York Giants all have 5-7 records, with the Dallas Cowboys just one win behind. Any of those teams could win it and secure a playoff spot, but I think I’d lean towards New York, because when they’ve played well, they’ve played better than any other team in the division. They’re just heroically inconsistent.

In terms of who gets the wildcard places in the NFC, the first will be whichever out of Green Bay and Minnesota doesn’t win the division, I’d expect. The other will probably be the Seattle Seahawks, who, if the season ended today, would get that spot. They’ve won more games and are playing better football than the next teams in line (Tampa Bay, Atlanta), so they seem a safe bet. My prediction for the seedings in the NFC are fairly straightforward too, though I fancy Seattle to win 3 or 4 of their remaining games and edge past Minnesota:

1. Carolina Panthers
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. Green Bay Packers
4. New York Giants
5. Seattle Seahawks
6. Minnesota Vikings

And What About the AFC?

The AFC’s a bit more interesting than the NFC, though three teams (New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos) are 10-2 and coasting towards the playoffs. In the AFC South, both Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans are 6-6 but both have favourable schedules. It’s too close to call, but Indy have already beaten Houston in Houston, and still get to host them in a couple of weeks, so let’s say they’ll win it.

The wildcard places are more fun. Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs are 7-5 and currently in position to get the places, but Pittsburgh have a couple of very difficult games in the next two weeks, whereas Kansas City’s on sizzling form, their schedule looks friendlier and I think they could easily win 3 or 4 of their last 4 games. The New York Jets are also 7-5, and have a mixed schedule to come, with the week 17 match in Buffalo probably being decisive, as Buffalo Bills aren’t out of it at 6-6, with three games against the NFC East and then the Jets game. So. I’m saying definitely Kansas City, but the last place is a complete guess. Pittsburgh have the recent history of getting to the playoffs, Buffalo have the easiest schedule but need to win more games, and the Jets do have this image of capitulating under pressure. Pittsburgh will probably get it but it seems a boring safe choice, whereas I think Buffalo could well win all four games and squeak it. So, for the actual predictions. Splitting the three teams mentioned first for seeding is tricky, let’s see how this works out:

1. New England Patriots
2. Cincinnati Bengals
3. Denver Broncos
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Buffalo Bills

A Look at the 2016 NFL London Games

For the third year in a row, the NFL are scheduling three games in London for our delectation. There are a couple of wrinkles in the announcement this year: one of the games will be played at Twickenham, and one of the games doesn’t have an opponent announced as yet! The teams hosting games are the Jacksonville Jaguars (as ever), the St Louis Rams, and the Cincinnati Bengals.

Game 1 – Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

For the second year in a row, we have a divisional matchup at Wembley, as the underwhelming Jets-Dolphins games doesn’t seem to have put anyone off. More relevantly, it’s the fourth year in a row (of the planned five so far), we’ve got the Jaguars hosting a game. Remember when that ‘agreement’ that the Jags were going to be here til doomsday was made, and an entire British-based NFL fanbase groaned? Yeah, it was justified then, but such is the NFL that suddenly we as fans think we might be watching a future powerhouse, or at least a contender. The 2013 and 2014 hapless Jags are gone (remember how bad that game against the 49ers was), and the 2015 maybe-competitive Jags are here.

I want to write about Jacksonville a bit more, as they’re close to being the most interesting team in the NFL, given how they’re rebuilding and how it seems to be going. This isn’t the place for an essay, but a summary will tell us why to be excited about watching them more. Bortles at quarterback: he looks talented, and at the very least you’d hope for him to develop into Matt Stafford, but the very tip of his potential is probably much more Brett Favre. He’s also going to set the record for touchdown passes in a Jaguars season this year. Allens Robinson and Hurns at wide receiver: Robinson might be one of the best possession receivers in the NFL, and Hurns is definitely one of the best secondary options, and with TJ Yeldon and Julius Thomas getting more in sync with the gameplan, the offense is going to be exciting. Defense isn’t so much yet, even though Telvin Smith looks a talent at linebacker. But, third-overall-this-year-pick Dante Fowler Jr will be playing next year, after missing all this year.

And all this, to play the Colts. The Colts are fascinating in a different way. Andrew Luck has been bad this year as he battles injuries, but he’s still someone you just have to watch. However, outside him, general manager Ryan Grigson has done one of the poorest roster-construction jobs you’ll see anywhere, with weaknesses filled with underperforming free agents or veterans in decline. The offensive line has been swiss cheese (hence why Luck keeps getting crushed), the defense is mediocre and unmemorable (Vontae Davis was one of the best cornerbacks in the league last year! This year, not so much), and for all the skill players on the roster, people like Frank Gore, Andre Johnson, Donte Moncrief, Coby Fleener, Dwayne Allen, have just not performed. Even TY Hilton’s underwhelmed.

I think this game will be interesting because the Jaguars will be closer to the Colts than ever. Jacksonville will be full of young talent, and it’s just a question of how the mental errors players commit early in the career balance out. The Jags defense will probably still be weak enough that Andrew Luck can do a fair bit, but the offense will give Indianapolis fits. It could even be a shootout! That said, I think a lot of Indianapolis’ roster for next year is a bit unknown – not just how will Andrew Luck play, but how many veterans will be gone, who will get brought in. Expect a lot of money spent in free agency and a little bit of a roster overhaul, which makes it yet more interesting.

Game 2 – Unknown NFC East at St Louis Rams

This is the game at Twickenham, and could well be the stinker of the bunch. The Rams are the worst team, bar none, to watch in the NFL this year. Even having the most exciting offensive rookie in the league can’t make you switch on this snoozefest. Not even having the toughest defense with probably the second best defensive player in the league can make you bother. In fact, if you’re new to NFL, that’s probably more likely to make you turn off!

And we don’t know who they’re likely to be playing! Well, we know it’s whoever comes third in the NFC East. We can probably safely say that isn’t the New York Giants – though they’re only 5-5 they’re the best team in the East and if they don’t win it, they should come second. So, it’s going to be one of Dallas, Philadpelphia and Washington. And really, it could be any of those three. Everyone will be hoping it isn’t Washington, who are playing here in Game 3, and are possibly the most (rightly) reviled teams in the NFL. They’re also toilet to watch. Dallas? It might be them, and it’s always fun to watch Romo, Bryant, that offensive line. Philly are the great unknown though, and may well make this the most interesting game. Who’ll be coaching them? It looks like Chip Kelly’s on his way back to harangue unpaid players in college. Who’ll be quarterbacking? Suddenly Sam Bradford doesn’t look like a long-term option. Who anything?

So yeah, if Twickenham’s easier to get to than Wembley for you, consider this game! If not, maybe just get a season ticket and try and hawk your one for this to ‘friends’. I wouldn’t be amazed if this game falls short of selling out, or at least has a fair few empty seats despite nominally doing so.

Game 3 – Washington at Cincinnati Bengals

It’s a pleasant surprise to have as high performing a team as the Bengals coming to Wembley. Perennial playoff participants (with a hat-tip to the Colts), they’ll be the most talented home roster we’ve had. Going up against Washington though, bleurgh. The most entertainment you get from following Washington is by googling “Dan Snyder” followed by an insult. For those who don’t know, Dan Snyder’s the team owner, and…not the least controversial figure in sports, put it that way. Go on, have a google.

There’s a lot to enjoy in Cincinnati’s roster. Beyond Andy Dalton’s maturation at quarterback this year, there’s plenty of fun at the skill positions. Gio Bernard is one of the slippiest running backs around, and alongside Jeremy Hill’s more physical style is a nice complement. AJ Green is one of the top ten receivers in football, Tyler Eifert one of the top five receiving tight ends, and other pieces like Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu can do as much crazy stuff as anyone (see Sanu’s touchdown pass to Andy Dalton for evidence). They’re tough on defense, good on the offensive line. They’re a real all-round team. And they’re the home team, so a good chance of those gorgeous orange-with-bengal-tiger-sleeve uniforms.

There’s not much to enjoy in Washington, outside of DeSean Jackson being one heck of a deep threat. The quarterback is mediocre and may not be there next year, there are a bevvy of underwhelming running backs, cornerbacks, offensive linemen, heck, everything. I don’t enjoy watching Washington at all and I can’t see them turning into a neutral’s favourite any time soon.

All that said though, I think this might be a good game. Washington do have a habit of punching above their weight, and Cincinnati do make things a tad closer than they need to be this year. I don’t see either team being especially better or worse next year than this. If, as is not impossible, the Bengals go and win the Super Bowl (and while they’re outsiders right now, they’re not improbable outsiders), this game becomes a must-see.

What Should I Watch?

First up, if you’re interested and you’ve not been to a game before, go see one. Go see the Jacksonville-Indianapolis or Washington-Cincinnati game. It’s not the American experience, but it’s a damn sight cheaper and a great introduction. A half-decent game can make three-and-a-bit-hours seem like one-and-a-bit if you’re in the stadium. Of course, goes without saying the food and beer are overpriced and poor quality, but that’s watching any medium-or-large-scale sporting event in Britain.

If you want to go to one game, I’d lean towards Jaguars-Colts. It’s got the potential to be the tightest game, it’s got the potential to be the highest quality football, specifically the offensive football. If you’re watching mainly for the defensive side, well you’re probably big enough of a fan of NFL that you want to go to all three anyway. This might turn out to be the game for you, but I doubt it. If you don’t fancy Jags-Colts, Washington-Cincinnati’s your next bet, which may well be a decent game, but probably not an amazing spectacle.

Do you want to go to all three games? Well, that’ll depend on a lot of things. I’d put money on the Twickenham game involving the Rams being utterly pants. The Rams are one of those teams that can make close games seem incredibly dull. But this year past there wasn’t much difference between getting a season ticket (all 3 games), and individual tickets for 2 games. So you may as well buy the ticket then see if you fancy it. Maybe someone living nearby may buy it off you. Maybe you live nearer Twickenham than Wembley anyway. And there’s the fact that we don’t know who’s playing yet – the Eagles have yet to play in Britain, and the Giants and Cowboys have big fanbases. If it’s Washington though, yeesh.

Does this mean a London te- NO. Stop asking that question. I am not answering it.

2015 Previews: AFC North

Are you all ready for some Hott AFC North action? Good.

Baltimore Ravens

Last Year: 10-6

Which Way Are They Going: Up.

What’s Good: That offensive line. Seriously, this is a very very good roster, with quality almost everywhere, but those five dudes they put up front to help the skill players create everything? They’re the best. Marshall Yanda, at guard, was rated the 5^th best player in the NFL (all positions being equal) by Pro Football Focus. What does that mean? He’s going to make a hole for the running back to run through. He’s going to stop those huge defensive linemen from affecting Joe Flacco’s throwing. He’s got excellence in the likes of Kelechi Osemele, Ricky Wagner and Eugene Monroe around him, who’ll do the same. And they’ll all do it without fanfare, but with a superbly positive effect. The linebackers are ace too, but I’ve kinda run out of space here.

What’s Possibly Good But Might Not Be: Joe Flacco and Justin Forsett. Flacco, who has become the subject of perhaps the most covertly arch and self-satisfied meme going around football right now, has an incredible record in the playoffs, and a reasonably good one in regular season. The season after he was the Super Bowl, he threw the ball too much and wasn’t great, last year he threw it less and was better. Last year, he had Justin Forsett, a running back who’d done basically nothing since 2008, to be the first effective running back since long before Ray Rice, well…you know all about that, I hope. But, they’ve lost their offensive co-ordinator. I still think there won’t be any problems here for Baltimore, but you never know.

What’s Definitely Not Good: The depth at wide receiver. Steve Smith, in his last season in the league, is the only proven quality receiver. They did have deep threat Torrey Smith, but he left, and anyway the only thing he was really good for was drawing pass interference penalties (seriously, he benefited from something like twice as many yards as any other player on these!) Their slot receiver Marlon Brown’s good for some short gains and first downs, and they spent a first round pick on Breshad Perriman, who has a great name but is ‘raw’ and ‘kind of injured’, so don’t be surprised if it takes him one and a half seasons to start hitting his apparently high potential. Beyond that though? Not so much.

Anything Else: I generally warm to Baltimore for some reason. Probably the purple. But I don’t really know why. John Harbaugh came out and supported Donald Trump’s idea to build a wall to keep Mexicans out. So he can go to hell, but the Ravens will win the division at 11-5 or so.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Last Year: 11-5

Which Way Are They Going: Down a touch.

What’s Good: Le’Veon Bell might be the best running back in the league, and Antonio Brown might be the best receiver. I bloody LOVE Antonio Brown. He’s quick, he’s direct, he’s fun to watch and last year he was so so satisfying to have in your fantasy team. He always has this big, bright smile in mugshots, and in interviews he always seems this genuinely delighted little guy who’s presumably spending half his time meditating to be that chilled out. Obviously Le’Veon Bell was inspired too, since he ended up getting arrested for possession of marijuana and has a two game ban at the start of the season. He’ll still finish in the top 3 for rushing yards.

What’s Possibly Good But Might Not Be: Ryan Shazier. Ryan Shazier is a linebacker who came into last season a little bit hyped at least a little bit, promptly burst onto the scene, then started to look inconsistent, and finally got injured. The Steelers don’t have many playmakers, any big threats, on defense, so if Ryan Shazier can start stopping the run more effectively, batting down some more passes and covering those scary tight ends, he’ll quickly become their no.1 defender. If.

What’s Definitely Not Good: The rest of the defense, especially the secondary. Troy Polamalu retired this season from the strong safety position. Sure he was in decline, but as well as being a lovely soft-spoken man he’s also one of the recent greats at any position. Anyway, the Steelers secondary was awful last season. I’m trying to work out who they’ve signed, and I’m not sure. Are they still starting Cortez Allen? That’s not good. Yeuch. How did this team win 11 games last year with this defense?

Anything Else: I really dislike the Steelers and I really hate Ben Roethlisberger. That’s fine, everyone has to hate some teams and people and like some others. So I thought I’d just lay that out there. I think the Steelers will swap records with the Ravens this year and go 10-6.

Cincinnati Bengals

Last Year: 10-5-1. Woo! We have a tie game! I love tie games, because I’m European.

Which Way Are They Going: Down, somewhat.

What’s Good: AJ Green is one of the best receivers in the league, Andrew Whitworth is one of the best left tackles. The Bengals gave up the third-least sacks in the NFL last year. That’s good! And they got 10 wins despite being ravaged by injuries among their wide receivers and tight ends. Now, with hopefully everyone fit, notably Marvin Jones who as a good no.2 receiver means defences don’t have to put all their coverage players on AJ Green, Andy Dalton should complete more passes. That’s how this works, right?

What’s Possibly Good But Might Not Be: This is generally how I feel about the Bengals. They’ve got this habit, under Marvin Lewis as head coach, of having a roster full of really able players, but just not always putting it together. So, the Bengals won 10 games last year, but for example, against the Browns, Andy Dalton completed 10 out of 33 passes for 86 yards, threw 0 touchdowns but 3 interceptions. This is a Bengals season, it seems like. It’ll probably be good, and you can expect some two-touchdown wins against good teams, and then lose 34-3 to the Titans or someone like that.

What’s Definitely Not Good: Carrying on from the last point really, the Bengals are cursed with being satisfactory. Which is not good. Andy Dalton is a satisfactory quarterback, most of the time, but he is not good enough to take the Bengals to a Super Bowl, which is a shame considering they’ve had four out of four opportunities to get there while he’s been quarterbacking for them. Yet to win a playoff game, famously. The Bengals, you just feel like their existential malaise is going to lead them into terminal decline.

Anything Else: That orange kit with the tiger stripes? Roar. I love that kit. But the Bengals will go 8-8 at a push, possibly a tad worse.

Cleveland Browns

Last Year: 7-9

Which Way Are They Going: Down. So very far down.

What’s Good: Joe Thomas, their left tackle, is a future Hall of Famer, and though he’s probably heading towards the twilight of his career, at least he’s not giving up sacks. The offensive line in general’s fine. Actually, there are a few quality players on this team, like Joe Haden at cornerback, and in Andrew Hawkins they have one of the best slot receivers in the league.

What’s Possibly Good But Might Not Be: The pass defence is pretty decent in general, and should probably carry on being so. Even with top-10 pick cornerback Justin Gilbert basically being unable to follow receivers when they changed direction, they still ranked 8^th in the league in yards given up. The pass rush is perfectly fine, the safeties are pretty decent. You know, there’s some ability there.

What’s Definitely Not Good: The skill positions. Oh dear god. Brian Hoyer, who was probably the most likeable thing about this team, was jettisoned in the offseason. He’d been decent until the last four games, when he was atrocious. But they replaced him with Josh McCown, who was pretty poor for Tampa Bay last season. He quarterbacked a team to the worst record in the league, and he’s in more work? Well, it’s either than or Johnny Manziel. Now, Manziel might well become a decent quarterback one day. He’s young and it’s still possible and it sounds as if he might have woken up a bit. But he’s not there this season, so get a veteran in. But McCown is rubbish. Their runners are hot garbage, with Terrance West being a sulky moody sod who turned up to the new season ‘out of shape’. Their non-Andrew Hawkins receivers are Dwayne Bowe (0 touchdowns in 2014), Brian Hartline (474 receiving yards in 2014 as a starter – that’s 96th in the league), and a bunch of meh players from last year like Taylor Gabriel and Travis Benjamin.

Anything Else: I thought the Browns were a pretty nice underdog team to sympathy cheer for, until they cut Brian Hoyer last year. I like Brian Hoyer. This team will go 3-13 and that’ll be that.