Ah, the AFC North. With three competitive, chippy teams, whose games are full of fight, acrimony, controversy, and fun. Oh, the Browns are here too.
Cincinnati Bengals
2015 record: 12-4, followed by yet another loss in their first playoff game, this time in particularly acrimonious circumstances, to the Steelers.
What’s To Love? This remains one of the deepest rosters in the league. Cincinnati have genuine stars in AJ Green and Geno Atkins, a host of very good starters like George Iloka, Andrew Whitworth, Tyler Eifert and Jeremy Hill. Andy Dalton had his best season last year, prior to getting injured. Replacement players are lined up for those who have left, like Shawn Williams at safety, and Tyler Boyd at wide receiver. Cincinnati might be struggling to kick on past the playoffs, but they’re doing everything right to put themselves into position to.
What’s Not To Love? The fact that the Bengals have now had several years of supremely talented rosters that have yet to take them beyond the first playoff game. It’s a tricky position for the fanbase: Cincinnati were dysfunctional and abysmal for years and years, and have now been very good, reliable, and providing lots of victories for their fanbase. I mean heck, San Diego fans comparing their team now to the La’Dainian Tomlinson years would tell you not to complain when the going’s good, but it can’t help but get everyone down that no matter what Cincinnati do to get themselves towards Super Bowl contention, they never get that playoff win.
What’ll 2016 Be Like Then? Frankly, it’s issues like that which every year make it hard to predict that Cincinnati will match the previous year. But they always do. Nonetheless, if we’re being cold and dispassionate Cincinnati look a touch below where they were last year – losing two draft picks already to injury (though neither were going to be starters), along with the injury-proneness of some top players like Eifert. I think 10-6 should be what we expect them to get.
Pittsburgh Steelers
2015 record: 10-6, including a section midway through the season where offensive coordinator Todd Haley forgot you could call any other play than “deep pass”.
What’s To Love? This offense has the ability to put up roughly 8,000 points a game. Antonio Brown is the game’s best wide receiver. Le’Veon Bell, when he’s not suspended, is close to the best running back. Ben Roethlisberger still has a huge arm, good accuracy and is somehow impossible to sack. Offensive coordinator Todd Haley just loves to pile on the points. While some teams might suffer without a No. 2 receiver like Martavis Bryant being suspended, the Steelers have Markus Wheaton and Sammie Coates. Not too bad!
What’s Not To Love? Pittsburgh have been struggling on defense for a few years now. Last year, Bud Dupree looked like a steal when he slid to them in the draft, but he underwhelmed as a rookie. More damningly, previous first-round pick Jarvis Jones was still being outplayed by a 37-year old James Harrison last year. Ryan Shazier looks promising at inside linebacker, but the team is stuffed with underwhelming players: Senquez Golson, Arthur Moats, Stephon Tuitt.
What’ll 2016 Be Like Then? An explosive offense and a defense no worse than “underwhelming” still marks Pittsburgh out as one of the best teams in the league. While an injury to Roethlisberger or – especially – Antonio Brown will be a big puncture in the Steelers’ title hopes, there’s enough variety to the offense that they should score a heck of a lot of points. Sure, the defense is not great, but it’ll be enough to see them to an 11-5 record, I suspect.
Baltimore Ravens
2015 Record: 5-11, which if you read as 5 minus 11 is roughly how many first-string starters Baltimore had left by mid-season.
What’s To Love? Getting all those players back from injury, really. Joe Flacco, Steve Smith, Justin Forsett, Terrell Suggs, Jeremy Zuttah, Breshad Perriman and a whole host more, should all be in the starting lineup. To be honest, outside of Suggs there aren’t many elite players there, but Baltimore lost so many solid starters – Flacco and Smith particularly constituted huge losses – that Baltimore’s arrow can only go up. Add in to which they discovered some replacement players who should contribute well (Kamar Aiken springs immediate to mind), and things should be ok in Baltimore.
What’s Not To Love? Like I said, a lack of elite players. Baltimore have a huge amount of their salary cap tied up in Joe Flacco. Flacco’s a very good quarterback, but has only historically really turned it on the playoffs. All fine and dandy, but this isn’t a good enough squad to expect to get there. The best players outside Flacco are veterans Smith and Suggs – combined age 70 – and while there’s some promising youth (namely CJ Mosley), this isn’t an overly well-put-together squad.
What’ll 2016 Be Like Then? Despite all that, this roster is good enough to give anyone a game. You can expect wily playcalling, and the older players do tend to have the absolutely perfect competitive work ethic – Steve Smith in particular. Short of getting decimated by injuries again, Baltimore will make it to 8-8, but the roster needs a lot of work to make the small step from there to playoffs.
Cleveland Browns
2015 Record: 3-13. And every bit as bad to watch as you’d expect a 3-13 squad to be.
What’s To Love? Cleveland could well be the most fascinating team in the NFL. No, hear me out here! This is a roster that’s entirely in need of rebuilding. They have one elite player in left tackle Joe Thomas. They have the potential of a near-elite player, if Josh Gordon gets back on the field, which he might. And beyond that? Not much! The new regime therefore traded down loads in the draft, taking a Pokemon-esque “gotta catch ‘em all” approach to high-college-production rookies. Given that the draft can sometimes be a crapshoot, it might just work. Cleveland are several years away from having a team that can compete in the NFL. They’ll probably be picking first overall next year. But they’ve started a project that at least seems to be doing more than just making the same mistakes.
What’s Not To Love? It might, of course, be that they just make different mistakes instead. Either way, this isn’t going to be much of a team to watch this year. At quarterback, Robert Griffin III isn’t the same RGIII that won Offensive Rookie of the Year. Presumably, the Browns eschewed a high draft prospect as much because they didn’t have the team to help one develop as anything else. Griffin has a few offensive weapons, but they’re only a smattering of quality, much like the whole team. They’ll be out-classed repeatedly, especially you think on defense, where the front seven in particular looks weak.
What’ll 2016 Be Like Then? Don’t expect the Browns to finish much better than 2-14. There would be no point in them trying hedge future resources to win now, when at best they’d be looking at 5 or 6 wins. I wouldn’t expect a winning record even if everything goes right until 2019 at the earliest. There is no roster depth here, which is why they’re so fascinating! Cleveland are essentially trying to build a whole new team from scratch.