2016 Previews – NFC North

Always an interesting division, the NFC North has one powerhouse, one team that’s nearly there, having built a strong, young core, another that are at the start of that process with promising early signs, and the Lions.

Minnesota Vikings

2015 record: 11-5, with plenty of promising signs for the future! Mostly on defense, but still.

What’s To Love? I love so so many elements of this Minnesota defense. They can field one heck of a defensive line, with Sharrif Floyd, Linval Joseph, Everson Griffen, Brian Robison, Danielle Hunter…the only problem is you can’t get all of them on the field at once! At linebacker, Eric Kendricks and (espescially) Anthony Barr are fantastic young players. Harrison Smith is one of the league’s best free safeties. The young cornerbacks are an intriguing bunch too – the improving Xavier Rhodes, the raw-but-full-of-potential Trae Waynes, and this year’s chippy second-round pick Mackenzie Alexander. This team is a not-that-outside shot to have the league-best defense this year.

What’s Not To Love? Well, as good as Adrian Peterson is, one injury there – and running back is a position with very high attrition – and you worry their offense could just fall over. I mean, Bridgewater is fine at QB but he’s not (yet?) someone who’s going to win you games off his own back. His receiving cast is decent, if inexperienced, so everything is built on having that run threat to keep the offense looking multi-dimensional, and easing the pressure on the its less strong parts.

What’ll 2016 Be Like Then? I think Minnesota overachieved by a win or two last year. But, I think underachievement this year would be an identical record to last. This is a young team, coached well, and I think it will kick on yet more provided injuries don’t hit exactly the wrong players. That said, I think they’re close to the limit of the amount of games the defense can win for them, so there’s going to come a point where the passing game has to move beyond ‘serviceable’ to ‘exciting’, but if it does, Minnesota could end up the best team in the league. For now, I think they’re still 11-5.

Green Bay Packers

2015 record: 10-6, with no Jordy Nelson, an out-of-sorts Aaron Rodgers and the run game back in decline again.

What’s To Love? Well, this is the Packers. They have the best quarterback in the league, a fair star cast of wide receivers, and quality throughout the roster. They’re coached very well, managed fantastically, and tend to be always in the mix basically because so many people in the organisation are so good at their jobs. The thought of Aaron Rodgers having Jordy Nelson back this year for endless un-defendable back-shoulder throws should be terrifying every opposing defensive coordinator.

What’s Not To Love? It’s just odd spots with the Packers where they look like they might fail to meet expectations. Eddie Lacy was sluggish last season, and now his offseason weight-loss needs to show results on the field. They’ve struggled to find tight ends for a while, and his career to date suggests Jared Cook is still not that solution. Inside linebacker’s still a problem position. They’ll really be hoping new nose tackle Kenny Clark starts well. But really, I’m kind of scratching around the edges, trying to look for things not to like. There aren’t many.

What’ll 2016 Be Like Then? Green Bay will be better than last season. Rodgers will be better. Lacy will probably be better. The defense will be at least no worse. This team only needs to make a few small changes to win the Super Bowl, and I think going 12-4 during the regular season will be how they start.

Detroit Lions

2015 record: 7-9. Despite the fact it started with losing 7 of their first 8, and finished winning 6 of their last 8, this still felt like a bit of a nondescript season.

What’s To Love? In Darius Slay, Detroit possibly have the next superstar cornerback. In Ziggy Ansah, one of the most terrifying edge rushers. Detroit had a pretty good draft too – offensive tackle Taylor Decker, defensive tackle A’Shawn Robinson and center Graham Glasgow should become solid starters for years to come, and that’s the sort of draft that a team needs to build up the depth and the starting quality. There’s plenty of potential here.

What’s Not To Love? Oh god Detroit, I’m sorry. I really am. Calvin Johnson was the best wide receiver active in the NFL, even if he hadn’t been quite at his best due to injuries these past few years. The athleticism, the talent, the work ethic, the skill, commitment, everything. He was the prototypical wide receiver, the platonic ideal upon which all other big lanky bastard receivers were based. And now, at the mere age of 30, he’s retired. In nine seasons, he got to play in just 2 playoff games. He’ll go to the Hall of Fame. But Lions fans will be inconsolable this season, and rightly so. Not only has their best player retired, but their most enjoyable to watch by a country mile has.

What’ll 2016 Be Like Then? It could well be bleak, but there is some talent around the roster. The way things are right now, Detroit’s looking at about a 5-11 season. If the defense kicks on, if the new receiver signings work out, if Matt Stafford and Ameer Abdullah have good seasons, you can add 3-4 wins to that. But those aren’t small ifs.

Chicago Bears

2015 record: 6-10. Which was a few clicks better than pretty much everyone was projecting for Chicago.

What’s To Love? The rebuild of this team is looking good. I really, really liked the Bears’ draft, as unflashy as it was – Leonard Floyd will be a great linebacker, though it’ll take a season or two. Cody Whitehair fills a bit of a hole at guard, and Jonathan Bullard was a steal in the third round. Add in to that, that Chicago may well have picked up the second coming of Julian Edelman in the seventh round, and the future looks bright. After all, last year’s draft already is adding players who’ll kick on, and first-round pick receiver Kevin White is finally going to get a chance to contribute (though early reviews are that he is still quite raw). Oh, and how could I forget that they did sneakily well in free agency too. Jerrell Freeman and Danny Trevathan are two excellent linebacker signings, while Akiem Hicks will be valuable on the defensive line.

What’s Not To Love? This team is still a fair way from being able to compete. Jay Cutler isn’t as bad as advertised but is not consistent enough to drag a team of this talent level to a winning record. A lot of the good players are young players on the up – there isn’t much high-quality veteran leadership to go around. The offensive line too, looked shaky even before fantastically-named starting center Hroniss Grasu tore his ACL and was lost for the season. The Bears’ll get there, but they need a couple more offseasons still to get there.

What’ll 2016 Be Like Then? I don’t see the Bears getting to .500 yet, it just feels like there’s still a little too much flakiness, and too much inconsistency that comes with inexperience. Don’t get me wrong, I believe in the Bears to get there, but there’s a good way to go, and this year’ll be 7-9.

Draft Tipper: NFC and AFC North

It’s nearly draft time, which means you want an idea of which team’s going to draft which player. We don’t have the expertise to do mock drafts, which even if we did are a massive crapshoot, so what we’re doing this year is identifying a few team needs, and which players might be around for teams with their first and second round pick. It’s educated guesswork, but it’ll be a useful guide for you if you’re not sure who to hope your team drafts. Anyway, let’s start with the NFC and AFC North divisions.

NFC North

Chicago Bears

They Pick: 11th overall
They Need: Cornerback, 3-4 Defensive End, Offensive Tackle, Wide Receiver.

Who might they go for in the first round? Picking 11th overall, they could pick a cornerback in Vernon Hargreaves, a tackle in Ronnie Stanley, or a defensive end in A’Shawn Robinson or Jarran Read. While they’ll want another wide receiver, I don’t think any are quite up to being picked 11th overall. Chicago can afford to wait.

In the second round? Mackensie Alexander or Xavien Howard are possible cornerbacks. If they go for a defensive end, Chris Jones, Hassan Ridgeway and Adolphus Washington may be in play. Offensive tackles like Jason Spriggs, Germain Ifedi and Le’Raven Clark are available. And there will be loads of options for a complementary receiver – Sterling Shepard looks like a quality slot receiver, and Corey Coleman and Will Fuller will be great speed receivers if they slide to there.

Detroit Lions

They Pick: 15th overall
They Need: Wide Receiver, Offensive Tackle, Center, 4-3 Defensive Tackle

Who might they go for in the first round? At wide receiver, this is just about the range for Laquon Treadwell or Josh Docton. Offensive tackle is tricky – Jack Conklin offers value as a potential left tackle there, but if he’s gone, is Taylor Decker a better bet than Riley Reiff? Detroit won’t go center in the first round, but A’Shawn Robinson, Sheldon Rankins, Jarran Reed and Andrew Billings are all in play at defensive tackle.

In the second round? Receivers like Michael Thomas and Tyler Boyd could be Detroit’s thing. There’s also Braxton Miller, but I’m not sure he’d quite fit what Detroit want. As with Chicago, Spriggs, Ifedi and Clark are all in this range at offensive tackle, are Ryan Kelly and Nick Martin at center. At defensive tackle, Vernon Butler, Jonathan Bullard, Kenny Clark and Adolphus Washington could go in this sort of range.

Green Bay Packers

They pick: 27th overall
They Need: Tight End, 3-4 Defensive End, 3-4 Inside Linebacker

Who might they go for in the first round? Some teams draft according to the “best player available” philosophy, whereby they don’t draft to a need, maybe because they don’t need to, or maybe because of a can’t-miss-player. Green Bay drafted Aaron Rodgers in 2005 despite having several more years of Brett Favre to come, and it worked out great. If they don’t just snag a player who’s inexpicably slid, defensive ends like Shaq Lawson and Noah Spence come into play, as do Reggie Ragland and Darron Lee at linebacker.

In the second round? Jaylon Smith may end up in the “best player available” category here, he’s an inside linebacker who will probably miss the 2016 season due to injury, and has a somewhat uncertain future but could well end up one of the best players to come from the draft if he’s fit. Elsewhere, look out for Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper at tight end, Shilique Calhoun at defensive end, and at linebacker, Scooby Wright or Su’a Cravens (if they’re feeling creative – Cravens is sort of half safety, half linebacker).

Minnesota Vikings

They pick: 23rd overall
They need: Wide receiver, many Offensive Linemen, Strong Safety

Who might they go for in the first round? This is prime territory to pick up a wide receiver. Laquon Treadwell and Josh Doctson would both be tasty alongside Stefon Diggs. Tackles like Jack Conklin and Taylor Decker may be available, Germain Ifedi probably will. There probably isn’t a safety worth picking here to pair with Harrison Smith.

In the second round? I think Minnesota will pick receiver first, but if they don’t, Michael Thomas would be a nice fit here, though I think Braxton Miller is too similar to Cordarelle Patterson for Minnesota to go for. On the O-Line, as well as the tackles mentioned for Chicago and Detroit, Cody Whitehair would be a nice fit at guard. At strong safety, Keanu Neal, Darian Thompson and Jeremy Cash are possibilities.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

They pick: 6th overall
They need: Offensive tackle, 3-4 Defensive End, 3-4 Outside Linebacker, Cornerback

Who might they go for in the first round? Baltimore are flooded with options here. Of the very top players, Laremy Tunsil and Jalen Ramsey are two potential targets who will likely already be gone. But, a top tackle like Ronnie Stanley is in play, as are top defensive ends DeForest Buckner and Joey Bosa (who may be more likely to fulfill their linebacker need). They could trade down for an outside linebacker like Leonard Floyd, or draft a top cornerback like Vernon Hargreaves.

In the second round? A tackle like Germain Ifedi is a possibility, and there are many potential 3-4 ends as mentioned with Chicago further up. Pass-rushing linebackers available should include Noah Spence and Yannick Ngakoue, and cornerbacks such as Xavien Howard and Mackensie Alexander are potential picks, though Baltimore are the type of team that may take a flyer on Kendall Fuller – a top-quality cornerback who will miss some if not all of the 2016 season.

Cincinnati Bengals

They pick: 24th overall
They need: Wide receiver, 4-3 Defensive Tackle, 4-3 Defensive End

Who might they go for in the first round? Cincinnati have been shedding secondary receivers recently, so a Laquon Treadwell, Corey Coleman, Will Fuller or Josh Doctson will likely appeal. On defense, big bulky units up the middle like Vernon Butler and Jarran Reed would be welcome, as would scary pass-rushers like Kevin Dodd and Emmanuel Ogbah.

In the second round? Again, there’ll be some decent wide receivers to pick up like Tyler Boyd, though a Braxton Miller-type “versatile” “weapon” might appeal to a team already set at the WR1 slot with AJ Green. Along the defensive line, tackles include people like Chris Jones and Adolphus Washington, and pass rushers will include Shilique Calhoun and Carl Nassib.

Cleveland Browns

They pick: 2nd overall
They need: Quarterback, Wide Receiver, 3-4 Defensive End, 3-4 Outside Linebacker, Safety

Who might they go for in the first round? Cleveland were thought of as favourites to go quarterback prior to the Rams-Titans trade. Now, if their quarterback of choice is off the board, Jalen Ramsey at safety/cornerback would be the choice, though they may pick Laremy Tunsil and leave him at right tackle until their all-pro left tackle Joe Thomas leaves or retires.

In the second round? If they want quarterback here, Connor Cook is in play. Expect either Will Fuller or Corey Coleman to still be available here as a deep threat or slot weapon at wide receiver. They may target Chris Jones or Hassan Ridgeway at defensive tackle, or Noah Spence, Emmanuel Ogbah or Yannick Ngakoue to be in play at outside linebacker. Cleveland would also have their pick of safeties, with Vonn Bell, Keanu Neal and Karl Joseph likely to be available.

EDIT: Well, the first round here’s all change now since the trade where Philadelphia get Cleveland’s second overall pick. Cleveland don’t get a whole heap this year but will in future years. In any case, it changes who Cleveland will go for in the first round. I still think it’s not wide receiver territory, though they may go for Paxton Lynch at quarterback if they like him. More realistically, if DeForest Buckner slides to 8 they may pick him, or a pass-rusher like Shaq Lawson or Leonard Floyd may be in play. But I think they may just go for best player available. Someone like Vernon Hargreaves, Ronnie Stanley or even Ezekiel Elliott may not be one of the Browns’ biggest needs, but they’d still be very good players, presumably.

Pittsburgh Steelers

They pick: 25th overall
They need: Offensive tackle, Nose Tackle, Safety, Cornerback

Who might they go for in the first round? Though Pittsburgh need a left tackle, I’m not sure any will fall within this sort of range. A nose tackle like Vernon Butler or A’Shawn Robinson will be in play. Pittsburgh would have their pick of the safeties mentioned with Cleveland’s second round pick, though a cornerback like William Jackson, Eli Apple or Mackensie Alexander might offer better value.

In the second round? At tackle, players like Jason Spriggs and Le’Raven Clark maybe available, as would nose tackles like Adolphus Washington and Hassan Ridgeway. The best safeties will have gone, but players like Jeremy Cash and Darian Thompson may still offer value. A cornerback like Artie Burns is a potential pick too.

Wild Card Previews by Roughing the Passer

It’s wild card week in the playoffs, and Roughing the Passer is back from wherever the heck he went, and he’s back previewing action. Where did he go? There are many rumours. Maybe he was on safari in the Serengeti, or lounging on a Cayman Islands beach. Or maybe he was somewhere in Michigan, standing out in the cold, wearing a Honolulu blue jersey with the number 81 on the back, barely audible, chanting “please don’t retire Calvin, please don’t retire Calvin” over and over… Anyway. The games. I was hoping he was going to predict the winners this week, but no. Chickenshit.

Kansas City at Houston – Saturday ‘afternoon’

This match will be a hard one to watch, because it will serve to remind me of the wasted anguish of my own football-watching season (I’m a Lions fan, so that’s every season). The Chiefs will rile me up because I watched them make the Lions look like amateurs at Wembley earlier this year, despite the fact they had a record about as bad as ours at the time, and we had experience of playing (and winning!) in foggy London town. To be fair, the Chiefs have gone on an absolute tear since then, coming to this game with double-digit winning streak (the Lions have been sneaky good too, except when it counts – TOO LITTLE, TOO LATE DUDES), and even safe old Alex Smith looks kind of frisky. It’s ironic that San Francisco ditched Smith in favour of a leg-powered shiny new model (wherefore art thou now, #7tormcoming? (Ed – somewhere quoting Iain Duncan Smith on his twitter bio)), when Smith is now running all over the shop like a gormless, white Cam Newton.

The Texans on the other hand managed to win a division that included the Colts and the Jags, both of whom I’ve agreed to see play at Wembley next season. Why have I done this? When neither were good enough to overcome this medicore Texans team, a team so flawed that they named their starting quarterback for the season, then ditched him after just an hour of play, in favour of a guy that couldn’t reliably find his way to team flights on time, let alone the endzone? Andrew Luck better be healthy by October. I want to see weekly scans of his spleen, or whatever it is he’s messed up.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati – Saturday ‘evening’

My god, I’m angry at this Steelers team. As if Big Ben weren’t a reprehensible enough human being, he single-handedly destroyed my fantasy season by striding into the final game, against the lowly Ravens of all teams, and racking up all of 3.8 points. What? Ameer Abdullah scored me more than that, and he’s physically incapable of holding onto the ball. I’m not even sure he has fingers. It’s almost impossible for Ben to score so poorly. I have to assume he was paid off (and I put nothing past my fantasy opponent, there are no depths to which he wouldn’t stoop). As such, I hope they get blown up here, but instead they’ll probably throw for 500 yards and half a dozen touchdowns. Scumbags.

I feel kind of sorry for the Bengals, they’re this year’s Arizona Cardinals – a strong showing all season, capped with a devastating injury blow that might just end their championship aspirations. A lot of people think that the ideal karmic display here would be to win this, only for Andy Dalton to return and THEN lose in the next week, but I think that’s too cruel. Instead, just have them lose here, and let that mighty record of playoff failure continue for another year. You don’t mess with perfection like that.

Seattle at Minnesota – Sunday ‘afternoon’

Tanking is a unique phenomenon in American sports, where, because there’s no risk of relegation to a lower league, teams can deliberately perform badly in order to gain the delicious rewards of better draft picks, and a greater chance of reinvigorating your team. I don’t think it’s that prevalent in the NFL, where players want to create good game film and coaches want to preserve their jobs, but you have to think that both the Vikings and the Packers wanted to lose last week. The Seahawks just find ways to win (Superbowl XLIX excepted), and they’re coming in hot right now. Beastmode is gearing up, their receivers have learnt how to get down field, and Russell Wilson has made me want to drink his bubble water (this is not a euphemism). I assume it’s the water that’s making him so good. If it’s just “not having sex with Ciara”, you’d expect that to be true of every other quarterback who is not having sex with Ciara. Unless…

Anyway, I don’t think Bridgewater is ever going to be all that (Ed – fuck off), so make the most of Adrian Peterson while you can, Vikings. Maybe he’ll run you right into the Superbowl, and your sense of shame will force you to perform seppuku in the stands as you watch the scumbag hoist the Lombardi aloft.

Green Bay at Washington – Sunday ‘evening’

YOU LIKE THAT? YOU LIKE THAT?! You might have to! Because Kirk Cousins (a Michigan State Spartan, thus someone I am compelled via family ties to root for) is balling out right now, and even though their division was a hot mess, they won it fair and square. I don’t really know what it is they’re doing to win – just, not losing, I think – but since it’s the playoffs, and anything can happen, I think they might just pull this out of the bag. The oddsmakers have Green Bay favoured here, but I think we’re letting history cloud our judgement. Yes, Aaron Rodgers is freaky good. Yes, Green Bay know how to win. But come on. They’ve been downright ugly for stretches this year. They lost to the Lions at Lambeau! They got LITERALLY torn apart by the Cardinals! It’s not just a Jordy Nelson thing. This team is vulnerable. And now the Washington Racists can slime their way past them and notch up their first playoff win in ages. Which I’m supporting? Christ, but the NFL makes moral relativists of us all.

Oh hey, what happened to RGIII by the way? Is he still a thing? I want to see a reality show with him and Johnny Football next year, maybe just reviewing Texas divebars or something.

2015 Playoffs: Team by Team

Twelve teams have made the playoffs then, and only one can triumph. Who’ll that be? Well, we don’t know, and frankly our predictions are probably going to be way off. BUT let’s predict anyway, because it’s fun and interesting to write and read.

NFC Playoff Teams

#1 Seed – Carolina
Strengths: Multiple. Cam Newton’s an incredible quarterback, possessed with a rocket arm, rushing ability, big-play ability, you name it. Despite having a relatively low accuracy percentage (in part brought about by throwing more deep passes, and having no receivers who can catch), he’s been careful enough with the football, and has accounted for 45 touchdowns this season. The defense are monsters – Kawaan Short is one of the best interior linemen in the league, Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis are an intelligent, instinctive and brutish linebacker duo, and Josh Norman is a shutdown corner (most of the time)
Weaknesses: There are a few spots lacking in depth around the roster. Who’ll play corner opposite Josh Norman is still up in the air. As good as they are on the defensive interior (linemen and linebackers), the outside pass-rush is only so-so. And their run game may suffer without Jonathan Stewart, who’s injury-prone and injured.
Will they win it? They’re a pretty good shout to. I mean, they’ve only lost once all year, they’re accomplished in all areas of the game. It’ll take a very specific gameplan while manages to isolate their few weaknesses to beat them (but then, doesn’t that always?).

#2 Seed – Arizona
Strengths: Again, multiple. Carson Palmer is enjoying a career-best year having only just turned 36. He has a resurgent Larry Fitzgerald to throw to, as well as two other great starters in Michael Floyd and John Brown, and a bevvy of other good contributors. The run game has been great whichever Johnson has started (Chris and David). Only one team (Carolina) has scored more points this season. Their defense is strong, and Dwight Freeney spins his way to sack after sack after sack. They’re so versatile too – before his injury, Tyrann Mathieu played a cornerback-safety hybrid role that teams just couldn’t deal with. Deone Bucannon is part linebacker, part strong safety.
Weaknesses: There didn’t look like any, but they got absolutely destroyed by Seattle in the last week of the season. Don’t forget they were playing for the number 1 seed, so it’s not like they could afford to take the week off. The offensive line is great in the run game but you worry about it in pass protection. And those injuries are starting to mount up.
Will they win it? I was all ready to say “yes” loudly here before the Seattle game. One game shouldn’t mean a huge amount. It’s just that Arizona’ll have to beat Seattle to get to the Super Bowl in the first place. And if not Seattle, then another team who are strong in similar areas: Carolina.

#3 Seed – Minnesota
Strengths: I love watching this defense so much. They get so much penetration through the middle with Linval Joseph, are terrifying on the outside with Everson Griffen, Danielle Hunter and Brian Robison racking up the sacks. Then they have Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr waiting in the wings behind the line. Oh, and just the small matter of Harrison Smith, who might be the league’s best safety, sitting behind them. Add in to that the league’s leading rusher, Adrian Peterson, and you see why they made the playoffs.
Weaknesses: Outside of Peterson, the offense does look a bit dicky. The line has done surprisingly well but struggles in pass protection. Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t kicked on this year, and though he doesn’t cost Minnesota games, he’s not going to win many on his own. Of course, without any top receivers, he’s limited in his development, but either way the offense needs the defense to keep them ahead in games.
Will they win it? No, sorry. They play Seattle first up, who are as good on defense but more threatening on offense. The only hope is that their defense will destroy Seattle’s weak offensive line, but it’s not as if Seattle won’t do the same back in return. Minnesota are young and will improve, but they’re too one-dimensional on offense right now.

#4 Seed – Washington
Strengths: The reasoning side of my brain is trying to stop me writing “Kirk Cousins” here, because that doesn’t make sense. But Cousins has been great the second half of the season. But why is that? Well, the offensive line has seriously kicked on. DeSean Jackson came back from injury and having him as a deep threat keeps defences on their toes. Ryan Kerrigan is also playing fantastically, rushing from the edge.
Weaknesses: There’s a lot of just okay players in this team. The secondary in particular is struggling – Will Blackmon (cut by the Seahawks preseason) has appeared too much, and they’ve just signed Cary Williams (cut by the Seahawks midseason) to provide depth. While the rush linebackers are fine, the defensive line also is a bit something and nothing, even with Terrance “Pot Roast” Knighton.
Will they win it? No, but they might win a game (or two) and surprise people. They haven’t beaten a single team with a winning record this year, and have only played two playoff bound teams (Carolina and New England), games they lost by a combined score of 71-26.

#5 Seed – Green Bay
Strengths: The defense, oddly. Mike Daniels has been brutal enough up front to go from “decent starter” to getting a big tasty new contract. Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers are still stars at linebacker, Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix is ever improving at safety, and Sam Shields is a good head cornerback. They also have a guy called Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, who might be the best quarterback in the league (even if he hasn’t always played like it this year).
Weaknesses: The offense has been bizarrely bereft this year. Losing a receiver as good as Jordy Nelson to a preseason injury is going to hurt any team, but we all thought Randall Cobb and Davante Adams would step up. Cobb partly has, Adams definitely hasn’t. These last two years, Eddie Lacy looked to have given Green Bay a solid run game, yet this year he just hasn’t cut it often enough, struggling with weight and injury.
Will they win it? I don’t think so. Aaron Rodgers always gives them a chance, and they’re coached fantastically. But there are some teams against whom good coaching and planning just can’t overcome the performance gap, and that’ll be Green Bay’s downfall.

#6 Seed – Seattle
Strengths: We all know about the defense. About how Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril are terrifying up front, about how Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor are fantastic in the back end. But in addition to all these, check out KJ Wright at linebacker, who’s stout against the run and the pass. Russell Wilson has been fantastic in the second half of the season, as has Doug Baldwin. Marshawn Lynch should be back for the playoffs, but even if he isn’t, and even with Thomas Rawls also out for the season, Christine Michael has finally looked like the runner the world thought he was since entering the lineup these last few weeks.
Weaknesses: Sweet lord, the offensive line. For the first half of the season, it legitimately looked like they were trying to get Russell Wilson killed. Maybe he scammed them into buying some of his Fake Bullshit Water, or something. Also, outside of Doug Baldwin, the receivers are the sort of players who need Russell Wilson to do most of the work in them getting the ball. Jermaine Kearse, Luke Willson and co are okay, but okay’s not that good in the playoffs.
Will they win it? They certainly could. Russell Wilson’s the best quarterback you can have if your offensive line’s bad, and this is a team that can match up well against anyone on its day. If they’re to win it, I think it’ll be because the run defense makes opponents too one-dimensional and easier to defend.

AFC Playoff Teams:

#1 Seed – Denver
Strengths: Denver have the best defense in the NFL and it isn’t even close. At cornerback, Chris Harris and Aqib Talib are both going to the pro bowl, and Bradley Roby’s a good third cornerback. At safety, TJ Ward is probably the most underrated player on this team. At linebacker, Von Miller. Holy shit, Von Miller is terrifyingly good. DeMarcus Ware hasn’t been at his best this season but that’s a terrifying pass rush. And then they have Brandon Marshall (no, not that one) and Danny Trevathan at inside linebacker, which is also pretty terrifying. Wow.
Weaknesses: How can you be a number 1 seed and not know who your starting quarterback is. Peyton Manning has been rebuilt but all the parts aren’t quite performing at maximum efficiency. Brock Osweiler is as so-so as his name is bizarre. At least the running game’s coming good, because although those two receivers (Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders) are strengths, they’ve had a few cases of the dropsies lately.
Will they win it? Teams with a middling offense generally need an all-world defense to triumph, and Denver certainly have one of those. They’ve won several low-scoring contests, and have overtime wins against New England and Cincinnati already, plus a more comfortable one over Green Bay. Also, the running game has started to click these last few weeks, which is a tad portentous for other teams.

#2 Seed – New England
Strengths: Tom Brady, who when he’s not squirming about Donald Trump, finds the time to run an efficient offense, broken up with passes to their other strength, Rob Gronkowski. Actually, it’s a bit unfair on the well-run defense to lead with Brady. Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins are the sort of players you don’t notice who win you games just by shutting down options for the opposition. Collins can tackle, cover, do anything really. But there’s quality across the defense: no team would sniff at Rob Ninkovich, Dont’a Hightower, Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung.
Weaknesses: WOW that’s a lot of players on injured reserve. Notably, their best tackle Nate Solder is on injured reserve, right tackle Sebastian Vollmer is in-again-out-again, their backup LaAdrian Waddle, cut by the O-line-poor Lions, isn’t fully fit, nor is starting guard Josh Kline. Oh, and Brady got a high ankle sprain in the week. Their run game’s been poor since Dion Lewis went on season-ending injured reserve too.
Will they win it? While my shamelessly biased side says “I hope not”, they are the Patriots and so they can always win it. A hobbled Tom Brady is still a threat to anyone, Bill Bellichick is still an excellent head coach, albeit one with a Mourinho-sized dark side (or maybe “because he’s” rather than “albeit”, and that defense is going to be tricky for anyone to unpick.

#3 Seed – Cincinnati
Strengths: This is a well-run, deep team with balance across the roster, high calibre head coach and coordinators, and a sweet uniform whenever they turn out in orange. AJ Green and Tyler Eifert are top drawer wide receiver and tight end prototypes. Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard are the best running back one-two punch around. Geno Atkins is one heck of a destructive defensive lineman. Reggie Nelson, Carlos Dunlap, George Iloka et al are solid starters. Andrew Whitworth is a star tackle finally going to his first Pro Bowl. Andy Dalton’s finally performing at a high level as a quarterback.
Weaknesses: At least he was. Then he got injured. Now last year’s fifth-round pick AJ McCarron has to steer his team through games. He was always going to be at least a game manager, but he has to quickly develop the ability to do more than that (the potential is there). And, for all that this is a well-built roster, outside of Atkins and Green there are no superstars here. That wouldn’t be a problem with early season Dalton quarterbacking, but they might just need to be a tiny bit better to make it.
Will they win it? Doubt it, but stranger things have happened. They’ll need the odd opponent to underperform, and a few of the solid players to have star performances, but the depth is there. Dalton should be back if they win their first game, so a lot will hinge on that.

#4 Seed – Houston
Strengths: JJ Watt and DeAndre Hopkins, basically. Especially Watt, for whom a down year would constitute “not winning Defensive Player of the Year”. He destroys all but the stoutest double-teams, and if he destroys that, he destroys your quarterback to the tune of 17.5 sacks this year. Oh, and he has Whitney Mercilus alongside him, who’s pretty darned good. Hopkins is an elite wide receiver, and no other skill position players on this team come close. He creates separation, he wins contested catches, he’s very reliable.
Weaknesses: Houston won the weakest division in the NFL, and they’re the weakest team in the playoffs. Like Washington, there’s a bucketload of mediocrity here. Without their best offensive linemen (Duane Brown, just this week gone to injured reserve), pass rushers will severely test their perfectly fine but no better quarterback, Brian Hoyer. The cornerbacks are fairly decent, but they’re weak at safety. The running game’s been so-so ever since Arian Foster went on injured reserve, and none of the tight ends are particular threats.
Will they win it? No. There aren’t enough good players, and whereas the roster’s well-coached, that’s not enough. JJ Watt’ll give people scares, Hopkins’ll get a big chunk of yards, but not much else will happen.

#5 Seed – Kansas City
Strengths: The defense is, again, spectacular (noticing a theme with some of these teams?). Star pass rusher Justin Houston’s had a season disrupted by injury and it still hasn’t stopped them. Tamba Hali and Dontari Poe are the stars of the front seven, Eric Berry challenges Harrison Smith for the best safety in the NFL despite being cancer free for less than six months, and cornerback Marcus Peters will probably win Defensive Rookie of the Year. On offense, Jeremy Maclin has finally given them a star at wide receiver.
Weaknesses: The offensive line is only so-so, which is mitigated somewhat by quarterback Alex Smith being a fan of the short pass, but still is a concern. Smith himself isn’t a deep threat, which limits their passing game. In fact, the Chiefs only rank 27th across the league in yards gained on offense, so they’ll have to win attritional battles to progress.
Will they win it? Do you know what, don’t rule it out. My instinct is to say “no way” because they look a bit anaemic on offense, but delve a bit deeper and you see a solid run game and clock control. Andy Reid and Bob Sutton are a great head coach and defensive coordinator and they’re getting the most from this team. Every team will find them tough to beat, and they’ve just won ten on the trot to get here.

#6 Seed – Pittsburgh
Strengths: Offense. Hoooo boy do they love slinging the ball long. When your three wide receivers are the excellent Antonio Brown, the very good Martavis Bryant, and the also good Markus Wheaton, things look good for you. One interesting stat: they’re 8-for-9 this season on fourth down conversions. 89%. The next best is 67%. What does that mean? Uh…not sure, but this team has been putting on offensive splashes every week, so it’s fun to watch at least.
Weaknesses: That defense looks like it could crack at any minute. The secondary is one brainfart away from giving up a touchdown on any pass, it seems. The pass-rush has been so-so. In fact, the defense ranks 21st in yards per game. The real worry though? They’ve run the best fantastically all season, whether with Le’Veon Bell or DeAngelo Williams. But Bell was lost earlier in the season, and Williams is currently a bit knacked. Third choice Fitzgerald Toussaint came in for the last game of the season and was bobbins. If the run game dies, I think Pittsburgh look distinctly beatable.
Will they win it? I just don’t think the defense is good enough. A well-balanced team with a good pass rush and secondary will limit the Steelers on offense, and if that team also has a good passing attack (as several of those teams do), it’s going to be distinctly peaky for Pittsburgh.

2015: Four Games To Go

Aka “Oo-er, it’s nearly playoff time”.

The Carolina Panthers became the first team to clinch a playoff spot this weekend past, beating New Orleans 41-38 to also win the NFC South and stay unbeaten on the season, with 12 wins and 0 losses. Behind them, it’s still uncertain, so let’s have a look at what we’ve got.

A Bit About Who Gets In The Playoffs

To start with, if you don’t know how the playoffs are decided, here’s who gets in:

• The winners of each ‘division’ (e.g. AFC South, NFC West etc)
• The two teams in each ‘conference’ (AFC, NFC) who have the best record (as in, who has won the most games and played against the teams who have, overall, won the most games too), but didn’t win their division.

The playoffs are split between AFC and NFC – if you’re in the NFC, you won’t play anyone in the AFC until the Super Bowl. Within each split, the six teams are seeded, and here’s how the seeding is decided:

• The winners of each division will be seeded 1 to 4, according to who has the best record for the season.
• The two other teams to qualify – known as ‘wildcards’, are seeded 5 and 6, with the team with the better record of the two being seeded 5.

So then you’ve got six teams, and you’ve got them seeded. In the first round of the playoffs, the 3rd seed will host the 6th seed, and the 4th seed will host the 5th seed. In the next round of playoffs, the 1st seed will host whichever of the two previous winners had the lowest seed, with the 2nd seed hosting the other team. The winners of those two play each other in the conference championship game, with the highest remaining seed hosting the game.

Then, of course, the two conference champions play each other in the Superb Owl. Sorry, Super Bowl. Super Bowl.

So, Who’s Getting There From the NFC This Year?

Well, let’s look at the NFC, because it’s probably the easiest to predict. As stated in the introduction, the Panthers (12-0) are there already, and they’ll be joined soon by the Arizona Cardinals (10-2), who have three wins more than anyone else in the NFC West and will probably win two games out of their last four at least to tie it up. In The NFC North, both the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings have 8-4 records, but the Packers have a significantly easier schedule than the Vikings, so the smart money’s on them to win that division. The NFC East is just dreadful, though. Washington, the Philadelphia Eagles and the New York Giants all have 5-7 records, with the Dallas Cowboys just one win behind. Any of those teams could win it and secure a playoff spot, but I think I’d lean towards New York, because when they’ve played well, they’ve played better than any other team in the division. They’re just heroically inconsistent.

In terms of who gets the wildcard places in the NFC, the first will be whichever out of Green Bay and Minnesota doesn’t win the division, I’d expect. The other will probably be the Seattle Seahawks, who, if the season ended today, would get that spot. They’ve won more games and are playing better football than the next teams in line (Tampa Bay, Atlanta), so they seem a safe bet. My prediction for the seedings in the NFC are fairly straightforward too, though I fancy Seattle to win 3 or 4 of their remaining games and edge past Minnesota:

1. Carolina Panthers
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. Green Bay Packers
4. New York Giants
5. Seattle Seahawks
6. Minnesota Vikings

And What About the AFC?

The AFC’s a bit more interesting than the NFC, though three teams (New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos) are 10-2 and coasting towards the playoffs. In the AFC South, both Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans are 6-6 but both have favourable schedules. It’s too close to call, but Indy have already beaten Houston in Houston, and still get to host them in a couple of weeks, so let’s say they’ll win it.

The wildcard places are more fun. Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs are 7-5 and currently in position to get the places, but Pittsburgh have a couple of very difficult games in the next two weeks, whereas Kansas City’s on sizzling form, their schedule looks friendlier and I think they could easily win 3 or 4 of their last 4 games. The New York Jets are also 7-5, and have a mixed schedule to come, with the week 17 match in Buffalo probably being decisive, as Buffalo Bills aren’t out of it at 6-6, with three games against the NFC East and then the Jets game. So. I’m saying definitely Kansas City, but the last place is a complete guess. Pittsburgh have the recent history of getting to the playoffs, Buffalo have the easiest schedule but need to win more games, and the Jets do have this image of capitulating under pressure. Pittsburgh will probably get it but it seems a boring safe choice, whereas I think Buffalo could well win all four games and squeak it. So, for the actual predictions. Splitting the three teams mentioned first for seeding is tricky, let’s see how this works out:

1. New England Patriots
2. Cincinnati Bengals
3. Denver Broncos
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Buffalo Bills

2015 Previews: NFC North

Green Bay Packers

Last Year: 12-4

Which Way Are They Going: Up. That’s right, further up.

What’s Good: Most things. Aaron Rodgers is the best quarterback in the league, and if he’s smug, he’s still less insufferable than a vast swathe of the rest. Even without Jordy Nelson, out for the season with an ACL tear, he has one of the best receivers in the league in Randall Cobb. Cobb is wonderful to watch – this little ball of energy that is always quick and agile enough to be where you’d expect him to be, before you can get there to stop him. Then: a nifty little run and a 35-yard touchdown. They also have one of the top 5 running backs. Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers don’t look too bad at linebacker either. Also Casey Hayward, Sam Shiels, Mike Daniels…there’s quality throughout this team.

What’s Possibly Good But Might Not Be: Their tight ends don’t look too good. And David Bakhitari’s not great at left tackle. Beyond that…? Well, I remember being seriously harsh on Mason Crosby a couple of years ago when he was missing all those field goals. God, that was satisfying. But then he came back and was pretty damn good last year. So he’ll presumably be fine again.

What’s Definitely Not Good: The best I can come up with is: maybe teams will just do loads and loads of onside kicks to wind up the Packers. Although Brandon Bostick, who mucked up the onside kick in the NFC Championship game, is gone, so they’ll probably be fine.

Anything Else: This is the best team in the NFL, but I cannot stand the Packers. The ‘fan ownership’ feel s like either a sham or a scam, I’m not sure which, and I have no evidence for either, but whichever it is makes them oh-so-holier-than-thou. Cut it out! They’ve also had just two seasons losing more than half their games since 1992. That’s insanely successful, and high levels of sustained success are boring and not why I watch sport. I want entertainment, not soul-crushing excellence. It’s why I’ve fallen out of love with round-ball football. Pre-Nelson injury I’d have said a 14-2 season and Super Bowl win was on the cards. Now? Um, 13-3 season and Super Bowl win.

Minnesota Vikings

Last Year: 7-9

Which Way Are They Going: Up, and I like this.

What’s Good: This is a team that is full of plucky youngsters, going under-the-radar and showing bags of potential. Number 1 is Teddy Bridgwater, who is poised, accurate and so very very effective. He’s going to be a very good quarterback for a long time, whether or not he hits ‘elite’ or not isn’t going to matter so long as the Vikings surround him with good players. On defence, Harrison Smith, Everson Griffen and Xavier Rhodes are very good players, especially Smith who has gone from being a very good coverage safety to a wonderful one that is also pretty stout against the run. Sharrif Floyd and Anthony Barr are probably going to become very good players this season. This defence will surprise people!

What’s Possibly Good But Might Not Be: The receivers. Cordarrelle Patterson is Schrödinger’s Receiver at this point. He could end up being Randy Moss, or he could end up as Randy Newman. Beyond that, Charles Johnson and Jarius Wright have potential. Mike Wallace has been fairly good, but never exactly seems the most motivated. Kyle Rudolph will be a good ‘safety blanket’ tight end to pass to until week 5 when he gets a season ending injury.

What’s Definitely Not Good: Dear Adrian Peterson. Yes, you are an elite running back. However, when plea bargaining during a case in which you are accused of whipping your four-year-old son’s genitalia, try not to a) tweet too much about your ‘situation’, or b) dress up like a character from 1,001 Arabian Nights and ride a camel into your 30th birthday party. You’re only going to draw attention to yourself, and not in a good way.

Anything Else: I like the Vikings. Mainly because I like purple and their head coach hasn’t come out as being a Donald Trump fan yet (hi, Ravens!). I really want them to do well this year, and I really want them to win a Super Bowl at some point. They’ve got the building blocks here for sure, and I reckon they’ll go 9-7 this year, maybe even 10-6.

Detroit Lions

Last Year: 11-5

Which Way Are They Going: Down.

What’s Good: The receivers. Calvin Johnson might be heading into decline now, but combine him with a peak-era Golden Tate and you’ve got a stronger 1-2 if you add them together than when Megatron was at his peak. Which is kinda sad really. Anyway, the offensive line looks fairly good too, and Matt Stafford can be a good quarterback, so Detroit will score some points. Woo, points!

What’s Possibly Good But Might Not Be: Eric Ebron. Rookie tight ends are never regular receiving threats, unless they’re Rob Gronkowski. Ebron was hot garbage last year, which isn’t great if you’re a top-10 draft pick. Thing is, he confessed to taking an age to get up to speed. The college games he played in shows he can be utterly amazing, it’s just a question of putting it all together. Oh, and the running backs too. Ameer Abdullah looks amazing in pre-season, and Joique Bell’s pretty decent too. They’re unlikely to tank in the regular season, though you never know.

What’s Definitely Not Good: The defense, compared to last season. In context it’s still fine, but it’s a declining area of strength. Ndamukong Suh, for all his faults, was a beast at the line, destroying souls willy-nilly. Nick Fairley finally looked like a first round pick last year. CJ Mosley seemed like he was omnipresent, some games (and no, that’s not because I can’t distinguish between the Lions’ CJ Mosley and the Ravens’ one). They’ve all gone, and they were all good players. Haloti Ngata’s the only notable player come in to any of those positions, and a former part-time ok player like Tyrunn Walker will surprise if he’s a good replacement. They still have the brilliant DeAndre Levy, as well as Stephen Tulloch (watch those sack celebrations, Stephen!) and Ziggy Ansah. It’s just not as good.

Anything Else: Well, they’re not going to go 0-16. The Lions seem like the consummate underdogs among underdogs. In the NFC North (was the NFC Central for 24 years or so during this period) between 1966 and 2014, the Vikings have won the division 18 times, the Packers 14, the Bears 10. And the Lions have won it 4 times. Even the Buccaneers, who were only in the division while it was the NFC Central, won it 3 times. You just want to root for them, but they’ll go 8-8 this year.

Chicago Bears

Last Year: 5-11

Which Way Are They Going: Down, even moreso.

What’s Good: Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte. That’s it. Alshon Jeffery and Matt Forte are the only very good players on this team. Granted, it’s valuable to have a very good WR1 and RB1, but that’s just not quite good enough. This Bears team seem to be trapped in a spiral of decline.

What’s Possibly Good But Might Not Be: Martellus Bennett, who is as flaky as they come, yet could be a top 3 Tight End if he fancied it. The offensive line ought to be okay, but sticking in my mind is a game where they couldn’t run block for toffee, so Cutler kept having to throw to Forte for the standard 3-4 yard gains you hope for in the run game. Pernell McPhee might be good, having moved from being a situational pass-rusher with the Ravens to apparently a full-time role for the Bears. But he might not be, he’s a talented player but that increase in workload makes it an unknown.

What’s Definitely Not Good: Jay Cutler, and specifically the whole kind of atmosphere he creates by, well, existing. Jay Cutler’s not a bad quarterback. He makes some great passes, he just has a nasty knack of throwing momentum-killing interceptions (Note: very few interceptions aren’t momentum-killing, but that’s by the by). Lesser quarterbacks don’t do that because they can’t create the momentum in the first place. Combine that with his demeanour, or perceived demeanour, of not giving a shit, and it doesn’t exactly suggest the team are motivated. I suggested the Bears had one of the weakest rosters in the league, but having looked again that’s not true, there’s quality on there. But switching a defensive system with veterans is risky, losing your first round star wide receiver possibly for the season with injury is a punch in the gut, and there’s just no kind of buzz around this team apparently even from beat reporters.

Anything Else: My friend who I chat most to about the NFL is a Bears fan. He’s about as optimistic as I am for their season. I say 4-12.