2016 Previews: AFC West

Last one! Last one! This could be one of those very rare divisions where no team goes below .500 this year, depending on how things turn out. And yet…it doesn’t seem amazing. There’s a lot of good, and flashes of elite about the AFC West though, so it may be a tense division to follow.

Denver Broncos

2015 record: 12-4, but winning that little thing called the Super Bowl in the process.

What’s To Love? Of course Denver had the best defense in the league last year, particularly when it came to the pass rush. Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware and Derek Wolfe are all still here, as was promising situational guy Shane Ray. Expect Ray to get more of a go this year as Ware is a year older. The secondary is still fantastic, with Chris Harris and Aqib Talib premier corners, and TJ Ward and Darian Stewart two very underrated safeties. They still have Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders at receiver too, so you know, there are good players everywhere you look. Almost.

What’s Not To Love? Well, their Peyton Manning succession plan went to Houston instead, and now their starter is someone called “Trevor Siemian”. I’m rooting for him, but only because he went to Northwestern and Northwestern play in purple. Elsewhere, a couple of other Super Bowl starters left, Danny Trevathan to Chicago and Malik Jackson to Jacksonville. And Vance Walker, their key run-stopper, is lost for the season with an ACL. So none of the absolute elite players are gone (you could make an argument for Jackson), but Denver’ll need players to step up if the D’s not to take a step back.

What’ll 2016 Be Like Then? So, you do occasionally get teams retain the Super Bowl – the Cowboys, Patriots and Broncos themselves have done it in the last 25 years. But I don’t see it in this group of players. The stars aligned a bit last season – Wade Phillips absolutely nailed every one of his defensive schemes, Miller was a stud, and perhaps the rarest thing of all, Denver triumphed in spite of some of the worst quarterback play I have ever seen. I just don’t believe it happens twice. I still think they go 11-5 because look at this roster, but I don’t know which quarterback is leading them by the end of the year, and I don’t know if that defense can go All-World two years in a row.

Kansas City Chiefs

2015 record: 11-5! Amazing what you can do when your quarterback actually throws a touchdown to a wide receiver, isn’t it?

What’s To Love? This is a solid roster! Jeremy Maclin continuing to produce after leaving Philly was a very pleasant surprise. Also, the team rallied well after Jamaal Charles’ season-ending injury, with both Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware making hay despite a distinctly mediocre offensive line. The Chiefs still have a solid defense, as evidenced by Marcus Peters’ Defensive Rookie of the Year award (which should have gone to the Bills’ Ronald Darby, but), and they picked up the best interior O-lineman in the draft last year with Mitch Morse, who already looks like an anchor for years to come.

What’s Not To Love? I just don’t know how to believe in Kansas City. The 2014 incarnation of this team was the most miserable team to watch I can remember, although given the 2012 season included a mid-season murder-suicide, perhaps that’s not so bad. Anyway, back to the matter at hand. Alex Smith had a good year but is still Alex Smith, there’s no-one much to catch the ball outside of Maclin and Travis Kelce, and they really need to stop dicking around Eric Berry. It’s an atrocious look.

What’ll 2016 Be Like Then? There is plenty of quality in this team, especially on the defense, led by pass rushers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali and monstrous nose tackle Dontari Poe. It’s going to be very hard to score against Kansas City this season, and that should mean that the risk-averse offense Andy Reid and Alex Smith have masterminded will be more than sufficient. But it all just seems a bit…underwhelming. This is a difficult team for a neutral to love, and it’s probably that sort of bias that says to me they’ll go 9-7 and miss the playoffs.

Oakland Raiders

2015 record: 7-9. Getting closer to that first winning record since 2002!

What’s To Love? Oakland are a great example of how long-term planning and taking your licks can pay dividends. For years, they had losing or .500 records because they were mismanaged, splashed money on short-term free agents and generally looked desperate. The last few years, the flashy free agents have gone away a bit, to be replaced by some great drafting and great coaching. Derek Carr, taken in the 2nd round in 2014, looks like a future star quarterback. Amari Cooper should be the same at wide receiver, Khalil Mack’s already there in the pass rush. Well-drafted players like Mario Williams, Latavius Murray and Clive Walford make this team young and talented.

What’s Not To Love? There are, however, questions around depth. Their left tackle Donald Penn might be a great player, but he is also old and injury-prone, without a reliable backup. The secondary did well last year but had the legendary veteran Charles Woodson as a talisman, which it’ll now lack, so their first-round pick Karl Joseph needs to hit the ground running. Players basically need to carry on getting better, and Oakland need to carry on discovering hidden gems like David Amerson to keep improving, and that’s not an easy thing to do.

What’ll 2016 Be Like Then? The good news is that Oakland are set at QB, and on offense in general. They stressed the defense in this year’s draft, and that means it’s probably still a year or two away from where they want it to be, but Oakland have done a lot of things right in team-building these past few years, and I hope they get that 9-7 winning season. I think they will.

San Diego Chargers

2015 record: 4-12, with similar issues with everyone getting injured to Balitmore.

What’s To Love? Yes, everything went wrong last year. But this is still the team of Philip Rivers and Keenan Allen. Rivers has been fantastic the last couple of years, regularly putting up big numbers, keeping his team in games. Part of that’s been thanks to the help of Keenan Allen, a third-round gem who might not be the fastest, but makes contested catches, uses canny route-running to get separation, and is just a joyous player to watch.

What’s Not To Love? Well, San Diego are being idiots and still haven’t signed their first-round draft pick. Said draft pick didn’t even fill their main need, where the offensive line is still abysmal. Was the offensive line responsible for Melvin Gordon’s All-World-Awful rookie season? Maybe, maybe not , but San Diego will desperately need a run game this year. They alienated and got rid of their star safety, Eric Berry. Their shutdown corner, Jason Verrett, is distinctly injury-prone, and there’s not much talent on the defense.

What’ll 2016 Be Like Then? Okay, most of the returning players aren’t stars, but they should count for a few wins, at least. San Diego have been kind of nondescript for a while, and with the threat of relocation to Los Angeles (or elsewhere) hanging over them, the fans will probably want some kind of thrilling season. I don’t forsee that, but I do forsee a 7-9 record at least.

Draft Tipper: NFC and AFC West

The West divisions had the Super Bowl winners, arguably the best team not to make the Super Bowl last year, and two other teams that won a playoff game. They also, thanks to a somewhat lopsided trade, have the team picking first overall.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

They pick: 29th overall
They need: 3-4 Defensive End, Center, Offensive Tackle, 3-4 Inside Linebacker

Who might they go for in the first round? Robert Nkemdiche would be a very Arizona pick here, and Jarran Reed may still be on the board at defensive end. At center, Ryan Kelly may be available, as may an offensive tackle like Taylor Decker and Germain Ifedi. This may not be the perfect spot for a linebacker either. Don’t be surprised if Arizona take a best player available here, as they have a fairly well-stacked roster at the moment.

In the second round? Austin Johnson, Jonathan Bullard, Adolphus Washington and Jihad Ward are possible options at defensive end, and Nick Martin is an option at center. Arizona need a right tackle, so Le’Raven Clark and Shon Coleman are possible options. At linebacker, Scooby Wright, Su’a Cravens and Beniquez Brown are options, and this is another team that could get the idea to draft Jaylon Smith while he recovers from injury.

Los Angeles Rams

They pick: 1st overall (no 2nd round pick)
They need: Quarterback, Wide Receiver, Tight End, Center

Who might they go for in the first round? They’re going to be picking either Carson Wentz or Jared Goff. Why else would you give up two first-round picks, two second-round picks and two third-round picks? It is lucky that the three biggest positions of need for LA are either traditional mid-or-late-round targets (tight end and center) or a position well-known for producing late-round gems (wide receiver).

San Francisco 49ers

They pick: 7th overall
They need: Quarterback, Wide Receiver, 3-4 Outside Linebacker, 3-4 Inside Linebacker

Who might they go for in the first round? In truth San Francisco have way more needs than that, but let’s keep it simple. We can be fairly certain now that Carson Wentz and Jared Goff will go in the first two overall picks, so the only possible quarterback for San Francisco is Paxton Lynch. There aren’t any highly-rated wide receivers you’d pick here. If Joey Bosa slips to this pick, he’d be a good pick here, as would Myles Jack. Really though, San Francisco could pick almost any position and it wouldn’t be a bad pick, so wide-ranging are their needs.

In the second round? Connor Cook may still be on the board at quarterback here. There should be plenty of wide receivers too – a slot weapon or generic big target would be the logical pick, so Corey Coleman, Michael Thomas and Tyler Boyd would all make sense. A pass-rushing linebacker like Kamalei Correa or Yannick Ngakoue would be a decent option, as may Noah Spence and Shilique Calhoun. At inside linebacker, look at Scooby Wright and Beniquez Brown.

Seattle Seahawks

They pick: 26th overall
They need: Offensive Tackle, Offensive Guard, Center, 4-3 Linebacker

Who might they go for in the first round? This is a pointless exercise with Seattle even moreso than other teams. Seattle go their own way, do weird things that baffle everyone, and they generally work out. So I can say “Seattle need to stop dicking around and sort out their offensive line” and they will devote all their picks to defense and flick V’s at me while they’re at it. Nonetheless, if they want to sort out their O-Line, then Taylor Decker, Germain Ifedi, Jason Spriggs, Cody Whitehair and Ryan Kelly slot in at various points along the line. I refuse to consider a linebacker because SORT THAT GOD DAMN OFFENSIVE LINE OUT GUYS SERIOUSLY.

In the second round? Plenty of ‘projects’ here. Le’Raven Clark and Shon Coleman are good bets at tackle. Joshua Garnett and Vadal Alexander are options at guard. Nick Martin would fill the hole at center left when Max Unger was traded. This is decent range for a 4-3 linebacker, however, so Deion Jones, Kyler Fackrell and even Scooby Wright are options here.
AFC West

Denver Broncos

They pick: 31st overall
They need: Quarterback, Offensive Guard, 3-4 Defensive End, 3-4 Inside Linebacker

Who might they go for in the first round? It’s so weird that the Super Bowl winners need a quarterback, but here we are. Connor Cook is a prime candidate for a draft day slide and may well be available here if Denver want him. I’d say it’s a bit rich for Cody Whitehair at guard, though like Seattle, Denver have a strong need here. A tackle like Germain Ifedi may be a candidate to be converted to guard in the short term, at least. At defensive end, Robert Nkemdiche has potential but also non-specific ‘personality issues’ so may be available here. Austin Johnson, Jonathan Bullard and Chris Jones may be options, too. There isn’t really a linebacker in range here unless Reggie Ragland slides. It’s a bit of a quandary for Denver, all told.

In the second round? A quarterback ‘project’ like Cardale Jones, Dak Prescott or Christian Hackenberg is a possible pick here, though none of those are anywhere near ready to start immediately. At guard, Cody Whitehair and Joshua Garnett are options, as well as a tackle to be converted like Le’Raven Clark. At defensive end, Adolphus Washington, Jihad Ward and Bronson Kaufusi are options. At linebacker, look out for Beniquez Brown and Scooby Wright.

Kansas City Chiefs

They pick: 28th overall
They need: Wide receiver, 3-4 Defensive End, 3-4 Inside Linebacker, Safety

Who might they go for in the first round? There’ll likely be a wide receiver to put alongside Jeremy Maclin around, like Corey Coleman, Will Fuller or Michael Thomas. Big defensive ends like Chris Jones and Jonathan Bullard are options. At inside linebacker, they’ll have to hope Reggie Ragland slides if they want him. Kansas City will have their pick of safeties to replace Hussain Abdullah – Karl Joseph, Vonn Bell and Keanu Neal may all be on the board.

In the second round? Wide receivers at the back end of the second round may include Sterling Shepard and Pharoh Cooper, both of whom look like nifty slot receivers. I don’t think they’ll go for Braxton Miller, mind you. See the Denver entry for defensive ends (Washington, Ward, Kaufusi) and linebacker (Brown, Wright), though also keep an eye out for Jaylon Smith, but safeties like Su’a Cravens, TJ Green and Darian Thompson may be under consideration.

Oakland Raiders

They pick: 14th overall
They need: Defensive Tackle, Defensive End, Inside Linebacker, Safety

Who might they go for in the first round? Oakland have built well over the last few years, and aren’t so hamstrung by their needs as to have to pass up on better talents. There are a heck of a lot of good defensive tackles around though, so if Oakland want a Sheldon Rankins or A’Shawn Robinson, they should fill their boots. I’ve put defensive end as a need, so Shaq Lawson and Emmanuel Ogbah are in play, but if Bruce Irvin is going to play there full-time (as opposed to at linebacker) that’s less of a need. Linebacker remains a need though, so keep an eye out for Reggie Ragland. I wonder if Oakland might not pick somewhere that’s as much of a need in this first round though – keep an eye out for Ezekiel Elliott to go to Oakland if he’s still on the board.

In the second round? There are tons of defensive tackles, like Vernon Butler, Andrew Billings, Kenny Clark, Adolphus Washington, I could go on. Plenty of defensive ends, too: Noah Spence, Kevin Dodd, Shilique Calhoun, Carl Nassib. Linebackers? Again, Beniquez Brown and Scooby Wright are the realistic choices, though safety may end up being a better option if one of Keanu Neal, Vonn Bell or Karl Joseph is still on the board.

San Diego Chargers

They pick: 3rd overall
They need: Offensive tackle, 3-4 Defensive End, 3-4 Outside Linebacker, Safety

Who might they go for in the first round? The best player in the draft. If they think that’s Laremy Tunsil (tackle), Jalen Ramsey (safety), DeForest Buckner (end) or Joey Bosa (would probably play outside linebacker), all would fit. I think Tunsil and Ramsey are the most likely, but there’s no denying the two teams trading up for quarterbacks has worked out utterly perfectly for San Diego.

In the second round? As well as a tackle like Germain Ifedi or Jason Spriggs, 3-4 ends like Austin Johnson, Jonathan Bullard and co will be around, as will some pass-rushers like Kamalei Correa and Noah Spence. Most of the top safeties (Neal, Bell, Joseph) will still be available too. But, even though their record was terrible last year, I can see San Diego filling a position of slightly lesser need with one of the best players still available.

2015: Four Games To Go

Aka “Oo-er, it’s nearly playoff time”.

The Carolina Panthers became the first team to clinch a playoff spot this weekend past, beating New Orleans 41-38 to also win the NFC South and stay unbeaten on the season, with 12 wins and 0 losses. Behind them, it’s still uncertain, so let’s have a look at what we’ve got.

A Bit About Who Gets In The Playoffs

To start with, if you don’t know how the playoffs are decided, here’s who gets in:

• The winners of each ‘division’ (e.g. AFC South, NFC West etc)
• The two teams in each ‘conference’ (AFC, NFC) who have the best record (as in, who has won the most games and played against the teams who have, overall, won the most games too), but didn’t win their division.

The playoffs are split between AFC and NFC – if you’re in the NFC, you won’t play anyone in the AFC until the Super Bowl. Within each split, the six teams are seeded, and here’s how the seeding is decided:

• The winners of each division will be seeded 1 to 4, according to who has the best record for the season.
• The two other teams to qualify – known as ‘wildcards’, are seeded 5 and 6, with the team with the better record of the two being seeded 5.

So then you’ve got six teams, and you’ve got them seeded. In the first round of the playoffs, the 3rd seed will host the 6th seed, and the 4th seed will host the 5th seed. In the next round of playoffs, the 1st seed will host whichever of the two previous winners had the lowest seed, with the 2nd seed hosting the other team. The winners of those two play each other in the conference championship game, with the highest remaining seed hosting the game.

Then, of course, the two conference champions play each other in the Superb Owl. Sorry, Super Bowl. Super Bowl.

So, Who’s Getting There From the NFC This Year?

Well, let’s look at the NFC, because it’s probably the easiest to predict. As stated in the introduction, the Panthers (12-0) are there already, and they’ll be joined soon by the Arizona Cardinals (10-2), who have three wins more than anyone else in the NFC West and will probably win two games out of their last four at least to tie it up. In The NFC North, both the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings have 8-4 records, but the Packers have a significantly easier schedule than the Vikings, so the smart money’s on them to win that division. The NFC East is just dreadful, though. Washington, the Philadelphia Eagles and the New York Giants all have 5-7 records, with the Dallas Cowboys just one win behind. Any of those teams could win it and secure a playoff spot, but I think I’d lean towards New York, because when they’ve played well, they’ve played better than any other team in the division. They’re just heroically inconsistent.

In terms of who gets the wildcard places in the NFC, the first will be whichever out of Green Bay and Minnesota doesn’t win the division, I’d expect. The other will probably be the Seattle Seahawks, who, if the season ended today, would get that spot. They’ve won more games and are playing better football than the next teams in line (Tampa Bay, Atlanta), so they seem a safe bet. My prediction for the seedings in the NFC are fairly straightforward too, though I fancy Seattle to win 3 or 4 of their remaining games and edge past Minnesota:

1. Carolina Panthers
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. Green Bay Packers
4. New York Giants
5. Seattle Seahawks
6. Minnesota Vikings

And What About the AFC?

The AFC’s a bit more interesting than the NFC, though three teams (New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos) are 10-2 and coasting towards the playoffs. In the AFC South, both Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans are 6-6 but both have favourable schedules. It’s too close to call, but Indy have already beaten Houston in Houston, and still get to host them in a couple of weeks, so let’s say they’ll win it.

The wildcard places are more fun. Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs are 7-5 and currently in position to get the places, but Pittsburgh have a couple of very difficult games in the next two weeks, whereas Kansas City’s on sizzling form, their schedule looks friendlier and I think they could easily win 3 or 4 of their last 4 games. The New York Jets are also 7-5, and have a mixed schedule to come, with the week 17 match in Buffalo probably being decisive, as Buffalo Bills aren’t out of it at 6-6, with three games against the NFC East and then the Jets game. So. I’m saying definitely Kansas City, but the last place is a complete guess. Pittsburgh have the recent history of getting to the playoffs, Buffalo have the easiest schedule but need to win more games, and the Jets do have this image of capitulating under pressure. Pittsburgh will probably get it but it seems a boring safe choice, whereas I think Buffalo could well win all four games and squeak it. So, for the actual predictions. Splitting the three teams mentioned first for seeding is tricky, let’s see how this works out:

1. New England Patriots
2. Cincinnati Bengals
3. Denver Broncos
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Buffalo Bills

2015 So Far: NFC and AFC West after Week 3

The last of our four looks at the NFL season so far looks at the teams in the NFC and AFC West.

So, starting with the NFC West, the Arizona Cardinals (3-0) are the most surprising of the 3-0 teams so far. Not just because they’re 3-0, but because of how emphatic those three wins have been. The defense has been a turnover-making machine, led by charismatic safety-corner-hybrid Tyrann “The Honey Badger” Mathieu. Carson Palmer is back from his ACL and tearing it up. Larry Fitzgerald is back from apparently the signs of aging and tearing it up like it’s 2008. The only note of caution is that they have beaten three pretty rubbish teams. But hey, look at how emphatically they’ve beaten them! All other teams in the West have losing records, starting with the Rams (1-2), who are pretty much identical to the Rams of the last two years, winning when they should lose, losing when they should win. To wit, they followed a shootout win over Seattle with two anaemic losses to pisspoor Washington, and to a Roethlisberger-less Pittsburgh with a terrible secondary. Todd Gurley’s being eased into action, and the defensive front is still brutal, but there’s little to be excited about. Still, it’s more than the 49ers (1-2), whose one in the win column is a miracle, have. That 20-3 win over the Vikings looks barely believable given blowout losses to the Steelers and Cardinals since. This team is as rubbish as advertised, except maybe worse given Kaepernick’s performance against Arizona, where his first two passes were returned for touchdowns by the opposition. Whoops. The Seahawks (1-2) are listed as last because of tie-breakers but will rise to be at least the second best team in this division, especially now Kam Chancellor’s back to solidify the secondary. Everything felt a bit anaemic those first two games, and though the offensive line still looks beyond woeful, the shutout victory over the Bears at least felt a bit like the old Seattle. It’ll be interesting to see how they progress, because as good as they look, they do look a bit diminished from the last two years.

Skipping over to the interminable AFC West, the Denver Broncos (3-0) continue to be very good, but holy wow is that defense incredible. They might have the best 1-2-3 cornerback combination in the league, and then there’s Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware, the other Brandon Marshall. They are such a pleasantly suffocating surprise. Peyton Manning looked best in week 3 with a more Peyton-flinging-the-ball type game, as we all drown in think pieces about his physical condition. Second are the Raiders (2-1), who- Wait a second. What. The Raiders are 2-1. A winning record? Oh, but look, Derek Carr has become gunsling-y and fun, Amari Cooper is the best rookie WR by a magnitude of about 40, and Khalil Mack is about four times as terrifying this year as he was last. And he was terrifying last. I don’t think Oakland have the depth to keep this up, but the NFL is cyclic and it’s nice to see perennially terrible teams get better to demonstrate this. Plus I have Latavius Murray in fantasy (sorry!) and didn’t want to pick him so I’m super-grateful he’s running well. The Chargers (1-2) yet again lack that comfort, as first-round pick Melvin Gordon has yet to find his groove. He might get there this season, but he’ll have to do some behind a weak offensive line that’s disrputed Philip Rivers’ rhythm something chronic. Rivers looked good throwing to Keenan Allen in Week 3, but the game was already lost, and the team missed Ladarius Green. The Chargers have been fun these last couple of years, but between that anaemic O and nondescript D, the same can’t be said this year. And the same can never be said for the Chiefs (1-2), who zzzzzZZZzzzZZzz. Just kidding. For every fun player, the Chiefs have about twelve who are not. Travis Kelce, Jamaal Charles, Justin Houston, Tamba Hali, and a boring roster. Alex Smith is playing like the worst kind of Alex Smith, just about reliable enough but nowhere near threatening enough, and now that he’s got his big new contract, Chiefs fans are starting to pine for someone a little more exciting.

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2015 Previews: AFC West

Last of the previews! The AFC West, which is the division I give least of a toss about.
Denver Broncos

Last Year: 12-4

Which Way Are They Going: Stayin’ the same.

What’s Good: The Broncos have built themselves a very strong roster, with a surprising amount of depth. Just as well given the number of think pieces about whether Peyton Manning’s lost it, really. Chris Harris Jr was, according to the deep statistical analysis folks at Pro Football Focus, the fourth best player OVERALL in the NFL last. Von Miller was tenth. Safety TJ Ward, receivers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders, all these are really good players!

What’s Possibly Good But Might Not Be: I’m going to say running back. The Broncos managed to get an excellent season out of Knowshon Moreno in 2013, then got rid of him just in time. But then, they struggled with (now-cut) Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman until and unknown undrafted second-year player called CJ Anderson suddenly appeared and clocked 767 yards and 8 touchdowns in his last 8 games. But when an undrafted player with naff-all experience comes in and does that, you kind of have to look askance, as if to say “what…what happened here?” CJ Anderson will probably be fine, probably.

What’s Definitely Not Good: The offensive line is dreadful. They sent one of their best linemen to the Lions in order to trade up for Shane Ray. Louis Vasquez is probably the only other good lineman. So we’ve got a formerly elite quarterback who may or may not be in terminal decline, right? The one thing we want to do is surely protect him! And if not, at least make sure there are going to be some good running lanes so we can take the pressure off him. Um, not so much. Signing Evan Mathis somewhat improves that, but it still doesn’t look that good for them.

Anything Else: One of my favourite videos on Youtube is Peyton Manning’s Super Bowl 48, set to “Yakkety Sax”. Sorry, but it’s really funny. Wow, that was calamitous from the Broncos. I can see them being close to 12-4 again this year.

San Diego Chargers

Last Year: 9-7

Which Way Are They Going: Not up. Down maybe?

What’s Good: I’ll level with you first up, for some reason the AFC West is hard for me to write about. Maybe because it’s the eighth of these I’ve written which is quite a lot for someone who’s never written about NFL to do. So there’s that. Chargers have plenty of good players. Philip Rivers is under contract for a few more years now, so that’s good, and I’ve a lot of faith in Keenan Allen to rebound and re-establish himself as a number 1 receiver this year. Stevie Johnson will be a great support receiver too, and people like Malcom Floyd are always good to have around in your receiver depth.

What’s Possibly Good But Might Not Be: There’s still a lot of uncertainty about a lot of the Chargers recent high-level picks. Melvin Gordon was insanely good at running back in college, but preseason has made people a bit nervous of how decisive he is going to be in the NFL. From 2013, DJ Fluker and Manti Te’o are still works in progress, though the latter looks more promising. From last year, Jason Verrett looks the closest thing to a sure thing at cornerback, but we never saw much of Jeremiah Attaochu last year. From 2012, Melvin Ingram still could be amazing but only shows it in brief flashes, and Kendall Reyes? Well, he doesn’t look good at all.

What’s Definitely Not Good: The defensive front. The aforementioned Reyes is probably the weakest and least scary of the starters, but Sean Lissemore, Donald Bulter, Liuget, Te’o, Ingram and Tourek Williams don’t present much threat as a front seven. Denzel Perryman is the only high draft pick among the front seven this year.

Anything Else: No, not really. I find the Chargers a bit underwhelming. Philip Rivers is a good quarterback but seems possibly like one of the most unpleasant people in professional sport, at least if you have little time for far-right hardline Christians. I do worry about that front seven, and how they’ll do with running the ball this year. Anything between 6-10 and 9-7 is easily possible, so let’s say 8-8

Kansas City Chiefs

Last Year: 9-7

Which Way Are They Going: ZZZZzzzzzzzzzz.

What’s Good: This is the problem with committing to writing about 32 teams. You have to cover the Chiefs too. Jamaal Charles is brilliant if Andy Reid ever deigns to allow the ball to be handed off to him. Justin Houston is still here, and has signed a contract worth over $101m! Wow. He’s worth every penny of it, and he’s the driving force behind a defense that’s mostly pretty good.

What’s Possibly Good But Might Not Be: Andy Reid’s playcalling? Just joking, there’s no way that’s good. Let’s say Travis Kelce, who is insanely fun to watch and easily top-5 TE in terms of ability. Here’s hoping he can stay good this year. He’s also lots of fun to keep track of on social media, or even just watching his ingame hand gestures.

What’s Definitely Not Good: Trying to watch this team play, which nine times out of ten could be part of a sinister plot to give the entire world narcolepsy? Alex Smith is an efficient quarterback who either cannot, or is ordered not to, throw the ball even intermediate distances. This isn’t even long passing! It’s first down passing. Flashy pass plays are what get people into football, and with good reason. A few years from now, therefore, no-one in Kansas City will watch football. And, and, you have one of the most dynamic running backs in the game, who is also bags of fun to watch! Use him more for heaven’s sake! Urgh.

Anything Else: You mean I haven’t said enough? I don’t like the way this team plays at the moment. I’d like to see them with a different head coach and a different quarterback. The rest of the team? It’s fine, keep it! Just those two. Bleurgh. 7 miserable games won, 9 miserable games lost.

Oakland Raiders

Last Year: 4-12

Which Way Are They Going: Up! Believe it or not, they’re going up.

What’s Good: He might not have won a rookie of the year award, but Khalil Mack was as good a pick as any in last year’s draft. And Amari Cooper could well fulfil the same category this year. I think I didn’t watch the Raiders once last year, so I’m scrambling around a bit for tips here.

What’s Possibly Good But Might Not Be: Derek Carr. I’m enjoying the “Derek Carr wears eyeliner” meme, which I seriously hope to be true because the NFL needs more men wearing eyeliner. Anyway, Carr was, depending on who you listen to, promising or worrying last year, which pretty much nails this category. He had a fairly dreadful receiving corps last year, to the extent that signing Michael “Sorry Receiver” Crabtree is a significant upgrade. Of course, it’s still Michael Crabtree, but what can you do.

What’s Definitely Not Good: The Raiders. They’ve never been good while I’ve been interested in American Football. Having 8-8 seasons in 2010 and 2011 does not qualify as good, and compared to the rest of the league, they’re not there yet. Going off coverage at places like Pro Football Focus, you can see they’ve got some good elements to their team, but overall it’s weak. Hence the 4-12 last year. Players like Mack, Cooper and Carr could turn into franchise cornerstones but you need both depth behind them, and a few more good drafts before you can be sure of that. The Raiders aren’t there yet. Also: WHY THE HELL DID YOU SIGN CURTIS LOFTON? He was the worst thing about the Saints starting defense these last two seasons!

Anything Else: This is the last of the previews I’m writing a first draft of, at least. If I can make it through all these, finishing with the division I have least invested in, then whew, I’m pretty pleased with myself. Oh, and I think the Raiders’ll win 6 this year.