2016 Previews: NFC South

Hurrah! The 2016 season is finally lumbering over the hill, head down, football tucked under arm, which means it’s time for previews! Yay! As with last year, I’ll go through all 8 divisions and try and give a few predictions, and just generally be a sarcastic idiot about lots of teams. Which means, no better place to start than with the NFC South.

Carolina Panthers

2015 record: 15-1. Got to the Super Bowl! And then Denver noticed how overmatched their offensive tackles were, and that was that. God, that wasn’t a rewarding SB for a neutral, was it?

What’s To Love? Cam Newton, of course. If you don’t love Cam Newton, you’re probably reading the wrong UK-based, under-read, NFL blog. He’s charismatic, exciting to watch, more talented at more facets of football than almost every quarterback ever, and he winds up all the right people. Newton hadn’t really put everything together before 2015, but in last year’s regular season he accounted for 45 total touchdowns to only 10 interceptions, passing for 3,837 yards and rushing for 636. He was pretty nifty in the playoffs too. And all this despite having only one recognised good receiver – tight end Greg Olsen! This year he’ll have #1 wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin back, and it’ll be the second year in the system for Devin Funchess, who you’d hope will improve somewhat. The scariest thing for Carolina’s opponents though? Cam might not even be the best player on this team – that honour could go to linebacker Luke Kuechly.

What’s Not To Love? Given how Denver made Michael Oher and especially Mike Remmers look so terrible in the Super Bowl, you might think Carolina would’ve upgraded there! Er, nope. Like Seattle, Carolina can use their mobile quarterback to escape bad offensive line play, but that’s only going to work so far before defences know what’s coming and adapt. The absence of a good running back backup to Jonathan Stewart means that could get a bit one-dimensional, too. Oh, and their cornerback depth looks a bit shaky since they got rid of Josh Norman, with potentially two rookies, James Bradberry and Daryl Worley, likely to end up on the field for many snaps.

What’ll 2016 Be Like, Then? All things being equal, Carolina should win the NFC South. Their weakest areas are those which GM Dave Gettlemen thinks are least important, so they’re working to a plan that’s gone okay so far. But it’s not unreasonable to expect them to take a step back. Players like Newton, Kawaan Short, Norman and Olsen were so good last year, but one of them has left, and the law of probability says at least one might have a down year. But, there are plenty to take up the slack. I think an 11-5 season is par here, but they may fall short by the NFC Championship game.

Atlanta Falcons

2015 record: 8-8, but a weird one. Atlanta got to 5-0, then to 6-1, but lost 7 of their last 9 games. That doesn’t exactly bode well.

What’s To Love? Mainly just Julio Jones, to be honest. Julio’s either the best or second-best receiver in the NFL, depending on your view of Antonio Brown. He’s fast, a great route runner, athletic…pretty much the platonic ideal of a wide receiver. An injury to Julio Jones would be worth three or four wins, you suspect. The offensive line’s looking a bit better too, with Alex Mack picked up at center, and Jake Matthews improving fast.

What’s Not To Love? Atlanta were last in sacks in 2015, and looked it. They don’t have much to terrorise opposing offensive lines outside of last year’s first round pick Vic Beasley, who looked a touch raw. Nor did they address it in the draft. The secondary’s not great, outside of underrated cornerback Desmond Trufant, though at least their first-round pick of Keanu Neal should help to improve that and establish a bit of toughness in the defensive backfield.

What’ll 2016 Be Like, Then? Well, you can probably tell by the brevity of my preview: a bit nondescript. Having a defensively-minded coach is no good if the quality of players is low, which it is. Much of Atlanta’s early season form was helped by the running game being excellent – it regressed to the mean down the stretch, hence the struggles. While Atlanta could win 8 or 9, I think it more likely they take a step back, and they could even go 5-11 this year.

New Orleans Saints

2015 record: 7-9, which was pretty much deserved. The Saints were abysmal yet again on defense and good-to-very-good on offense, which averages out just the wrong side of middling.

What’s To Love? New Orleans have a smattering of good players, around the roster. Drew Brees is obviously a great quarterback. Cameron Jordan was a deserving Pro Bowler at defensive end. Terron Armstead should’ve been a Pro Bowler at left tackle. Delvin Breaux emerged as a potential star at cornerback, and Brandin Cooks is a pint-sized terror at wide receiver. But all that means is they’re not dominant at any one position group (other than quarterback).

What’s Not To Love? Sorry to say, but the defense doesn’t look like it’ll be much better this year. The additions through draft and free agency of Sheldon Rankins and Nick Fairley would’ve helped at defensive tackle, but Fairley’s only really effective if used on about 30-40% of plays, and Sheldon Rankins has already broken his leg. There’s not much pass rush outside of Cameron Jordan. The linebackers are, frankly, shit. At safety, Jairus Byrd is well on his way to being one of the all-time free agency busts. Oh, and the actual defensive scheming will likely still leave a lot to be desired.

What’ll 2016 Be Like, Then? 2015 and 2014, I suspect. There are enough reasons for optimism and enough emerging young players that New Orleans should be able to support Brees to get 6-8 wins, but enough holes in the roster and weaknesses to exploit that better teams shouldn’t struggle to beat them. I do think this team as a whole is better than last year, but I don’t expect them to win any more games. 7-9.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2015 record: 6-10. A fairly nondescript season, as the offense took a step forward and Tampa potentially have a quarterback of the future, but the defense took a step back.

What’s To Love? I struggled a bit here. I don’t want to say their quarterback, as I find it hard to be dispassionate about him (in a bad way). Let’s say, because I love specialists, Tampa could well now have the best kicker in the NFL – Roberto Aguayo is probably the best specialist to come out of college football since 2000. Kickers normally struggle early, but don’t be surprised if Aguayo is nailing long kicks and being cool under pressure right from the get-go. That said, he missed his first kick in preseason, but preseason is not an indicator of future performance etc etc etc.

What’s Not To Love? This isn’t going to be reflected in how I think they’ll do, but there’s a lot here. For starters, their best players fill me with question marks for this year. Doug Martin played as a star last year, but has yet to put two quality seasons together. Mike Evans dropped way too many passes last year. Lavonte David took a big step back, and even Gerald McCoy wasn’t quite his previous dominant self. Oh, and that kicker who could well be a super star? Yeah, they spent a second round pick on him. Ah.

What’ll 2016 Be Like, Then? See, the things that make me nervous in the last section won’t all happen. Heck, none of them might happen. And Tampa will improve. And their quarterback will, too. Finishing bottom of the division last year should ensure their schedule’s somewhat forgiving too. And yeah, I can see them going 7-9.

Draft Tipper: NFC and AFC South

Until a week or so ago, I’d have been writing about the first overall pick in this post. Now…not so much. The South is an interesting division with a few ascending underdogs, a few declining powers looking to get back to glory days, all interesting.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

They pick: 17th overall
They need: Tight End, Offensive Guard, 4-3 Defensive End, Safety

Who might they go for in the first round? I don’t think tight end is in play here, though guard may be if they decide Jack Conklin, Taylor Decker (tackles) or Ryan Kelly (center) are ideal to be converted to guard. At 4-3 defensive end, Shaq Lawson and Emmanuel Ogbah are worth consideration. None of the safeties are really in play in this range, and indeed this doesn’t look like an amazing spot for Atlanta’s needs in general. If they don’t trade up or down, they may go for a best player available, particularly if that player is a 4-3 linebacker like Darron Lee or Reggie Ragland, or a corner that slides like William Jackson.

In the second round? Tight ends are definitely in play here – Hunter Henry and Austin Hooper both look like mid-second round picks. At guard, Cody Whitehair and Joshua Garnett are the pure guards, while Germain Ifedi and Le’Raven Clark are convertible tackles. At defensive end, Kevin Dodd and Carl Nassib are feasible. At safety, Vonn Bell may be available, while Jeremy Cash and and Karl Joseph probably will be.

Carolina Panthers

They pick: 30th overall
They need: Running Back, Offensive Tackle, Safety, Cornerback

Who might they go for in the first round? Derrick Henry would be the choice at running back here. At tackle, Germain Ifedi and Jason Spriggs are expected to go at around this point, and Taylor Decker could feasibly slide this far. At safety, Keanu Neal and Vonn Bell are realistic options. Even before Josh Norman’s release, Carolina would arguably have targeted cornerbacks like Eli Apple and Mackensie Alexander, who could well still be around at this pick.

In the second round? Devontae Booker may slide this far, and to be honest running backs after him could go in almost any order. Let’s say, CJ Prosise and Kenneth Dixon are the most likely to go here if Booker’s gone (though both could be available with Carolina’s 3rd round pick). At tackle, Le’Raven Clark may still be on the board, as may Shon Coleman. Safeties like Karl Joseph, Darian Thompson and Jeremy Cash might be on the board, and at cornerback, Artie Burns and Zack Sanchez are options.

New Orleans Saints

They pick: 12th overall
They need: Offensive Guard, 4-3 Defensive Tackle, 4-3 Defensive End, 4-3 Linebacker

Who might they go for in the first round? Converting a tackle like Jack Conklin to guard might appeal here, though I’m not 100% sold on that idea. There are plenty of 4-3 defensive tackles this year, with Sheldon Rankins, Jarran Reed and A’Shawn Robinson being in play with this pick. At defensive end, Shaq Lawson and Emmanuel Ogbah have been mentioned. I’m not sold on this being the spot to draft a linebacker, but if the Saints love Reggie Ragland or Darron Lee, maybe they will.

In the second round? The usual list of guards and convertible tackles (see the Atlanta section) are in play, as are defensive tackles like Vernon Butler, Andrew Billings, Kenny Clark, Adolphus Washington…heck, there’s huge defensive tackle depth this year. At end, Carl Nassib and Kevin Dodd may be under consideration. At linebacker, Scooby Wright, Su’a Cravens and Kamalei Correa are options, as is Jaylon Smith, if New Orleans have enough confidence in his recovery.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

They pick: 9th overall
They need: Center, Defensive End, Safety, Cornerback

Who might they go for in the first round? I’ve put “defensive end” rather than stating 3-4 or 4-3 here because it looks like Tampa will play both at various times, even moreso than most times, though with a slight preference for a 3-4. So, if DeForest Buckner slips to their pick that’ll be perfect. Otherwise, Tampa will target a cornerback like Vernon Hargreaves. In truth, Tampa’s biggest needs don’t quite fit their draft spot, so don’t be surprised by either a trade, or a best player relatively irrespective of position pick.

In the second round? Ryan Kelly may be gone at center by now, and this is too high for Nick Martin, so don’t expect a center. Robert Nkemdiche might be an interesting surprise pick for defensive end, though Noah Spence and Shilique Calhoun might be preferable if available. Most safeties will be available here, so keep an eye out for Keanu Neal, Karl Joseph and Vonn Bell. Cornerbacks like Xavien Howard and possibly Mackensie Alexander might also be in contention for the pick.

AFC South

Houston Texans

They pick: 22nd overall
They need: Wide receiver, Center, 3-4 Defensive End, Safety

Who might they go for in the first round? A deep threat or slot receiver would make a great complement to DeAndre Hopkins, so Houston may consider Will Fuller and Corey Coleman. Ryan Kelly’s the only center worth first round consideration, so a big unit to put opposite JJ Watt may appeal more, like a Robert Nkemdiche or an A’Shawn Robinson. This might be a bit rich for a safety here, but maybe a Keanu Neal might be in play.

In the second round? Michael Thomas and Tyler Boyd would work at wide receiver, and Sterling Shepard will be in play if they want someone to play the slot. At center, Nick Martin may be in this range. Jonathan Bullard may fill that 3-4 defensive end role. More likely, Houston will have a bevy of safeties to choose from, such as Karl Joseph, Darian Thompson and KJ Dillon.

Indianapolis Colts

They pick: 18th overall
They need: Offensive guard, Center, 3-4 Outside Linebacker, 3-4 Inside Linebacker

Who might they go for in the first round? In truth it could be anyone along the offensive line, so Taylor Decker is in play as a tackle/guard, as is Ryan Kelly, a center who Indy could try at guard if they were so inclined. Pass rush and linebackers in general are a must, so people like Emmanuel Ogbah, Shaq Lawson, Reggie Ragland and Darron Lee should all be under consideration.

In the second round? Pure guards like Cody Whitehair and Joshua Garnett may be as tempting as a tackle you can convert, like Germain Ifedi or Le’Raven Clark. Or, as with Houston, Nick Martin at center. Second-level pass rushers like Kamalei Correa and Yannick Ngakoue are in play with this pick, or maybe a more versatile player like Kyler Fackrell, or an inside linebacker like Scooby Wright or Beniquez Brown.

Jacksonville Jaguars

They pick: 5th overall
They need: Offensive Guard, 4-3 Defensive End, 4-3 Linebacker, Safety

Who might they go for in the first round? Another year, another top-5 pick for the Jags. With Jalen Ramsey likely gone, Jacksonville will most likely pick either Joey Bosa (defensive end) or Myles Jack (linebacker). DeForest Buckner is another potential choice, though opinions vary on whether he’d be the best choice for a 4-3 defense. That said, Jacksonville may just go for “best non-QB available”, just in case Laremy Tunsil or the aforementioned Ramsey are inexplicably still on the board at #5.

In the second round? If Jacksonville want a guard, Cody Whitehair is in play, and potentially they could convert Germain Ifedi to guard. At end, the likes of Noah Spence and Kevin Dodd might be considered. This isn’t an amazing spot for linebacker, being too high for the likes of Deion Jones and Scooby Wright, but with Reggie Ragland likely gone. Jaylon Smith is unlikely too, given uncertainty surrounding his injury and the fact Jacksonville need players now. So, the top safety may be feasible – players like Keanu Neal, Karl Joseph and Vonn Bell may all still be available.

Tennessee Titans

They pick: 15th overall (1st round), 33rd overall, 43rd overall, 45th overall (2nd round)
They need: Offensive Tackle, 3-4 Defensive Tackle, Safety, Cornerback

Who might they go for in the first round? Well well well, that trade with Los Angeles certainly changed the way Tennessee’s going be drafting. Their first round pick puts them in a great place to draft a top right tackle, like Jack Conklin or Taylor Decker. A big nose tackle like A’Shawn Robinson or Jarran Reed would help against the run. A cornerback like William Jackson would also fill a position of need.

In the second round? Three second round picks is a great way to build instant depth and provide multiple future starters. Don’t be surprised if one of these is a risky pick, what with the stake being lower. Tackles like Germain Ifedi, Jason Spriggs and Le’Raven Clark are all possible picks. If they want a nose tackle, Vernon Butler, Kenny Clark, Chris Jones, Adolphus Washington, Hassan Ridgeway…there are a few options, and several of those can shift out to 3-4 end when needed too. The safety selection will likely be as with Jacksonville – Neal, Bell, Joseph and maybe KJ Dillon. The cornerback cupboard might be a little more bare, with Xavien Howard, Mackensie Alexander and Artie Burns possible picks.

 

2015: Four Games To Go

Aka “Oo-er, it’s nearly playoff time”.

The Carolina Panthers became the first team to clinch a playoff spot this weekend past, beating New Orleans 41-38 to also win the NFC South and stay unbeaten on the season, with 12 wins and 0 losses. Behind them, it’s still uncertain, so let’s have a look at what we’ve got.

A Bit About Who Gets In The Playoffs

To start with, if you don’t know how the playoffs are decided, here’s who gets in:

• The winners of each ‘division’ (e.g. AFC South, NFC West etc)
• The two teams in each ‘conference’ (AFC, NFC) who have the best record (as in, who has won the most games and played against the teams who have, overall, won the most games too), but didn’t win their division.

The playoffs are split between AFC and NFC – if you’re in the NFC, you won’t play anyone in the AFC until the Super Bowl. Within each split, the six teams are seeded, and here’s how the seeding is decided:

• The winners of each division will be seeded 1 to 4, according to who has the best record for the season.
• The two other teams to qualify – known as ‘wildcards’, are seeded 5 and 6, with the team with the better record of the two being seeded 5.

So then you’ve got six teams, and you’ve got them seeded. In the first round of the playoffs, the 3rd seed will host the 6th seed, and the 4th seed will host the 5th seed. In the next round of playoffs, the 1st seed will host whichever of the two previous winners had the lowest seed, with the 2nd seed hosting the other team. The winners of those two play each other in the conference championship game, with the highest remaining seed hosting the game.

Then, of course, the two conference champions play each other in the Superb Owl. Sorry, Super Bowl. Super Bowl.

So, Who’s Getting There From the NFC This Year?

Well, let’s look at the NFC, because it’s probably the easiest to predict. As stated in the introduction, the Panthers (12-0) are there already, and they’ll be joined soon by the Arizona Cardinals (10-2), who have three wins more than anyone else in the NFC West and will probably win two games out of their last four at least to tie it up. In The NFC North, both the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings have 8-4 records, but the Packers have a significantly easier schedule than the Vikings, so the smart money’s on them to win that division. The NFC East is just dreadful, though. Washington, the Philadelphia Eagles and the New York Giants all have 5-7 records, with the Dallas Cowboys just one win behind. Any of those teams could win it and secure a playoff spot, but I think I’d lean towards New York, because when they’ve played well, they’ve played better than any other team in the division. They’re just heroically inconsistent.

In terms of who gets the wildcard places in the NFC, the first will be whichever out of Green Bay and Minnesota doesn’t win the division, I’d expect. The other will probably be the Seattle Seahawks, who, if the season ended today, would get that spot. They’ve won more games and are playing better football than the next teams in line (Tampa Bay, Atlanta), so they seem a safe bet. My prediction for the seedings in the NFC are fairly straightforward too, though I fancy Seattle to win 3 or 4 of their remaining games and edge past Minnesota:

1. Carolina Panthers
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. Green Bay Packers
4. New York Giants
5. Seattle Seahawks
6. Minnesota Vikings

And What About the AFC?

The AFC’s a bit more interesting than the NFC, though three teams (New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos) are 10-2 and coasting towards the playoffs. In the AFC South, both Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans are 6-6 but both have favourable schedules. It’s too close to call, but Indy have already beaten Houston in Houston, and still get to host them in a couple of weeks, so let’s say they’ll win it.

The wildcard places are more fun. Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs are 7-5 and currently in position to get the places, but Pittsburgh have a couple of very difficult games in the next two weeks, whereas Kansas City’s on sizzling form, their schedule looks friendlier and I think they could easily win 3 or 4 of their last 4 games. The New York Jets are also 7-5, and have a mixed schedule to come, with the week 17 match in Buffalo probably being decisive, as Buffalo Bills aren’t out of it at 6-6, with three games against the NFC East and then the Jets game. So. I’m saying definitely Kansas City, but the last place is a complete guess. Pittsburgh have the recent history of getting to the playoffs, Buffalo have the easiest schedule but need to win more games, and the Jets do have this image of capitulating under pressure. Pittsburgh will probably get it but it seems a boring safe choice, whereas I think Buffalo could well win all four games and squeak it. So, for the actual predictions. Splitting the three teams mentioned first for seeding is tricky, let’s see how this works out:

1. New England Patriots
2. Cincinnati Bengals
3. Denver Broncos
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Buffalo Bills

2015 So Far: NFC and AFC South after Week 3

Let’s take a look at the state of each NFL Division after three games, and see how it’s matched up to what was expected at the start of the season. We’ll start with the two in the South. Don’t forget to follow us on Twitter at @longsnapsranked .

The NFC South was the worst division in football last year, with no team winning half its games. This year, both the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers have 3-0 records after three games. The Falcons’ success has mostly been built around the excellent Julio Jones, who’s catching on average nearly 150 yards of passes per game. However, it was the run game that saw them make a fantastic comeback against Dallas in Week 3, as Devonta Freeman ran for 141 yards and three touchdowns. Their defense still looks suspect, which is something you definitely can’t say about the Panthers. The Panthers have conceded just 48 points over three games, second least in the NFL, and that’s even with star linebacker Luke Kuechly only able to play half a game so far. While their wide receivers still look like dog dirt, Cam Newton has been as dynamic as ever at quarterback, and tight end Greg Olsen is in the form of his live to cover. They look shakier than Atlanta – witness their narrow win against the Saints in Week 3, but still better than expected thus far. The Buccaneers (1-2) look about as good as expected, i.e. not very. Jameis Winston is still throwing the picks he did in college, but that’s not an unusual issue for a rookie. The O-Line is still a concern, as Winston was sacked 4 times against the Titans, and the run game is dreadful this year. The Bucs still look on track for a 5-win season. That’s more than you can say for the Saints (0-3) who look bereft. Drew Brees missed week 3 with injury, but in weeks 1 and 2 his throws looked off. Of course, it’s easy to lose confidence when your receivers, especially your only ‘known’ receiver, the formerly reliable Marques Colston, can’t catch a cold. The defense is atrocious, though rookies Damian Swann and Hau’oli Kikaha at least flash a goodly amount of promise, that’s not going to do much for the season. I thought the Saints would be bad, but they’re worse than expected.

The AFC South is a strange division that shows off the unusual fixture scheduling that makes up the NFL – all teams are 1-2, that’s won 1, lost 2. If you didn’t know: NFL teams don’t only play teams in their division. I should write about that sometime. Anyway, the Colts are technically in the lead on tiebreakers, but oh my they look bad. Were it not for a failed two-point conversion in week 3, the Titans would have at least taken them to overtime. Andrew Luck is throwing far too many dangerous passes, and he’s being punished. The offensive line is easily among the worst in the NFL, and the defense has only looked okay. Last year’s superstar cornerback Vontae Davis has regressed. The Jaguars, on the other hand, can have a little hope. Blake Bortles has improved to being just about an acceptable starter, and remember the Jags didn’t want to play him at all last year. Allen Robinson is taking a big leap forward by the looks of things, and Paul Posluszny leads the NFL in tackles (though that is partly because he’s been able to make so many, because opponents are finding offense a bit too easy). The Texans are already on their second quarterback, and will, I’d imagine, be scouting the college games of Michigan, Penn State, Cal and Ohio State intently, to make sure they draft the right quarterback next year. They’ll improve when Arian Foster comes back, but not enough. The Titans might technically be in last place in the division, but they will probably feel the most positive about the season thus far. Marcus Mariota was ugly in Week 2, but other than that he’s looking like a good bet to eventually take home a Rookie Of The Year trophy, and he’s breathed life back into Kendall Wright, one of the best slot receivers in the league. The team remains pretty average, but there’s some promising pieces to build on here.

2015 Previews: NFC South

Here’s the first of my 2015 Previews. These should be a little primer to give you a few ideas about each team and each division. I’m a New Orleans Saints fan, so we’ll start with the NFC South.

Atlanta Falcons

Last Year: 6-10

Which Way Are They Going: Up. They have a new head coach! And he’s an ex-defensive-coordinator, which means the Falcons might not be the worst team on defense this year.

What’s Good: Julio Jones. Saying Julio Jones is good is a bit redundant really. He’s 6’3”. You throw the ball to him, and he catches it, and then runs even further. Last year he did that for a snip under 1,600 yards. Considering he only played 15 games, that’s pretty good. Over 100 yards on average per game! The Falcons traded up a load in 2011 to draft him, and I’ve read more than one piece that says the amount they gave up to get Jones is what’s caused two losing seasons, just the sheer lack of depth. Having said that, the multitude of picks the Falcons gave the Browns in the trade? Yeah, all the players they drafted with them have now all been ditched.

What’s Possibly Good But Might Not Be: The running backs. It must be bewildering being Devonta Freeman. You get picked in the 4th round, which is code for “probably a depth signing but might start and do fine sometimes too”. A few journalists hype you during your first training camp as the second coming of Emmitt Smith. You don’t do a heap in your rookie season because you’re 22 years old and learning the ropes. Come second season, no-one is giving you any time of day, and your team draft a third-rounder to battle with you. In truth Freeman will be a decent NFL running back who will be fine. Said third-rounder, Tevin Coleman, will probably be EXACTLY THE SAME.

What’s Definitely Not Good: The defensive personnel. Dan Quinn did wonders with the Seahawks defense, and you could make an argument that Desmond Trufant = Richard Sherman, or at least nearly does. But I’m not sure that…hang on, just looking again at the Falcons’ roster…umm. Ok, there is literally no-one else that I’ve seen be good in the recent NFL on that roster. First-rounder Vic Beasley might be an early favourite for Defensive Rookie of the Year but he hasn’t played a damn snap yet! This team will get better on defense, but not enough so that you’d notice.

Anything Else: Not really. When you go to Wembley games, Falcons jerseys are always among the last you ever see. That included at their “home” game against the Lions last year. That had a fun finish though. And Falcons games will have lots of points in! They’ll go 8-8. Maybe even sneak a lucky nine!

Carolina Panthers

Last Year: 7-8-1

Which Way Are They Going: Level-ish. If you’d asked me before Kelvin Benjamin’s injury, of course that would’ve been different. Once this team got into their groove last season, they got into a decent run.

What’s Good: The defense. It wasn’t always amazing last year, but it’s still got Luke Kuechly, Charles Johnson, Star Lotulelei. New draft pick Shaq Thompson is one of these hybrid safety-linebackers that could be able to do everything. Basically, that front seven is terrifying and given the weak O-lines knocking around their schedule (hi, Tampa Bay!), there’ll be some feastin’ panthers this year.

What’s Possibly Good But Might Not Be: Cam Newton. There aren’t a great deal of actual dual threat quarterbacks in the NFL. Newton is definitely one of them. He rushed for over 500 yards and 5 touchdowns last year. Last year his receivers were a rookie with worse hands than Darrius Hayward-Bey (that’s bad), a Steelers reject, and a children’s book character called Philly Brown. So, 3,000 yards and an 18:12 TD:INT ratio might not sound like much, but it’s all it needs to be. Of course, this year his wide receivers are a rookie with mid-tier tight end speed, a children’s book character mystifyingly renamed “Corey” Brown, and whichever receiver they claim on waivers when rosters cut down to 53.

What’s Definitely Not Good: The O-Line. They signed Michael Oher to play left tackle. If you’re not familiar with Michael Oher beyond The Blind Side, just know that it’s a good thing he’s protecting a quarterback who can run away fast. Also, they signed Jonathan Martin for depth and he promptly retired. I guess the 49er retiring thing also included recent ex-49ers.

Anything Else: I’m a Saints fan, so watching the Panthers win the South the past two years hasn’t been much fun, except for last season when everyone’s incompetence was kind of entertaining and almost endearing. And then the Panthers won a playoff game! I think this is the thing for me. If Carolina can get into anything of a rhythm, they’re just going to kind of rumble and rumble on. The defence that grinds you down. But damn, offensively this team is hot hot garbage. The Panthers will win 7 games.

New Orleans Saints

Last Year: 7-9

Which Way Are They Going: Down, though maybe only a little. The big drop comes next year. Did you know, the Saints are already over the salary cap for next year? And that’s with 37 of this year’s roster not under contract for next. It’s more complicated than that obviously, but it hardly screams “prudent forward planning”.

What’s Good: Drew Brees. Drew Brees is a future hall of famer and, if he’s in decline, it’s still in the slowly incremental phase, which means he can still throw the ball for lots of yards and touchdowns. This is good. He threw quite a few interceptions last year, which is not so good, but they were more that of a stressed and desperate man who can’t rely on his go-to guy to catch the ball any more. Marques Colston dropped what seemed like everything last year. Brandin Cooks got injured, Jimmy Graham did what the actual NFL writers call “taking a step back”. And still Drew Brees threw for all those yards. If he’s a little bit worse again this year, he’s still very good.

What’s Possibly Good But Might Not Be: The O-Line. Third-year left tackle Terron Armstead is a hype machine that deserves it, but beyond that it’s a bit of a mystery, between declining veterans (Zach Strief, Jahri Evans), a highly-able injury-prone center (Max Unger), and Tim Lelito, who was hot garbage last year. Also, the newbies who are going to play a role might well pay off, and might not. Inside Linebacker Stephone Anthony was probably picked a bit early, but god do the Saints need linebackers. So that also applies to Outside Linebacker Hau’oli Kikaha, too. The Saints had five picks in the first three rounds this year, so rookies are maybe going to be prominent.

What’s Definitely Not Good: The defense. As it is, anyway. Big, hairy, fun-loving defensive co-ordinator Rob Ryan’s great, but dearie me. Rob Ryan has been a DC every season since 2004. This is the position, in yards conceded, his teams have finished each year: 30, 27, 3, 22, 27, 31, 22, 14, 19, 4, 31. Two amazing years, two okay ones, and…wow, that’s a lot of dross. The third and fourth places look like outliers, don’t they? Saints’ defensive personnel still look shaky this year. At cornerback, Keenan Lewis is already injured, and Brandon Browner might be tough but he concedes penalties like no-one else. Jairus Byrd might be fit this year! Maybe! No more Curtis Lofton, which can only be an improvement! But it’s just so hard to believe it will come good.

Anything Else: Like I said, I’m a Saints fan, so I should probably leave this space blank. And not mention trading away our All-Pro tight end, our actually surprisingly effective deep threat, the better of our two offensive guards. There was a point this year where I was checking twitter genuinely dreading that we’d traded someone else away. It was certainly a radical off-season, and given the ever increasing mumblings about the “closing window” for Drew Brees, and by extension, the Saints, it’s not exactly the most optimistic of times. 5-11 or 6-10.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Last Year: 2-14, 1st overall pick!

Which Way Are They Going: Up. I guess it’s possible they could get worse, but there’s not really far to go. Much more opportunity to go up!

What’s Good: Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David. Both got big contracts this off-season, and both deserve them. Lavonte David makes ALL OF THE TACKLES. Gerald McCoy is just flat out terrifying. The rest of the defense, shall we say, doesn’t have the strongest reputation, and the fact is they still went 2-14 with those two playing. But still. Better than a kick in the teeth.

What’s Possibly Good But Might Not Be: Probably the entire offensive skill corps. I mean, Mike Evans is incredible, an athletic terrifying huge tall beast of a player. Outside of that, Vincent Jackson will probably be good but isn’t getting any younger. The tight ends might be quite good? Doug Martin might be good again? I really don’t want to mention that quarterback, I will no…

What’s Definitely Not Good: The whole package, really. I don’t have faith in their running backs. Even if I did, that offensive line is not tremendously good. I mean, I know this is a real false equivalence but they may well end up starting a guard (Ali Marpet) whose highest level experience to date is in Division III of college football. I don’t think I can quite overstate just how big a gap in quality there’s going to be from that to NFL. Tampa will get better because they were a bit unlucky last year, but still.

Anything Else: Sod it. It’s taking all of my self-control not to mention too much about Jameis Winston, because actual US news and (respectable) sport sites cover the stories surrounding him much better. If you don’t know much, do a google and try to avoid all the obviously partisan whitewashy writing. Oh, and the Bucs will go 4-12 or 5-11.