2016 Previews: AFC East

I’ll be honest: there’s not a lot for this neutral to get excited by in the AFC East. We’ve got the forever-imploding Dolphins, the forever-imploding Jets, the forever-imploding Bills, and the god damned Pats. 

New England Patriots

2015 record: 12-4, and another playoff win. Same old, same old.

What’s To Love? What, aside from having the best coach, best tight end, one of the best quarterbacks, probably the best linebacking corps, and an uncanny ability to not just find, but also create diamonds from the rough? Not much, really. But seriously though, those linebackers. Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower are utterly ridiculous, freakishly good players. Incredible against the run, amazing in coverage, and generally super-intelligent players who can diagnose plays, get angles, and just always be in the right place at the right time. The Pats will always play well, but even for someone like me who’d rather watch offense than defense, I still enjoy watching those lunatics fly around the field, stopping every single play.

What’s Not To Love? This is where I lose all semblance of balance. The coach is basically Evil Gregg Popovich with a dose (only a dose) of Jose Mourinho. The quarterback is maybe kinda pro-Donald Trump. I’m bored of their tight end’s hi-jinks. On the field, the offensive line is somehow a bit worse than last year, and they traded away their best pass rusher, Chandler Jones, for a guard who won’t even start. But, like I said, no balance here. I grew apart from round football and towards throw-y football partly because I was sick of the predictability and situational ennui (yes, I drifted away before Leicester’s title win). The Pats being consistently good is the antithesis of that. STOP BEING GOOD, DAMMIT.

What’ll 2016 Be Like Then? Bizarrely, Tom Brady’s 4-game suspension will have neglibile effect, probably meaning at most one win less. This team is weaker in a few key areas, but the receiver corps is very noticeably upgraded. And young players like their cornerbacks will probably improve too. You’d think another 12-4 season would be on the cards, and you’d probably be right.

New York Jets

2015 record: 10-6, but an agonising miss on the playoffs. Still though, 10-6. That’s good for the Jets.

What’s To Love? Well, Ryan Fitzpatrick signed again, so those effective Fitzpatrick-to-Marshall and Fitzpatrick-to-Decker connections are still on. The D-Line lost Damon Harrison yet still looks terrifying. Their new rookie linebacker is, by all accounts, freaking ridiculous. Ryan Clady should strengthen the O-Line, and Matt Forte will hopefully produce for more than the 4 games Chris Ivory managed last year.

What’s Not To Love? This is a team that has at best stood still since last season. I don’t think their offense will be much improved – Fitzpatrick had a career year but he’s never been consistent from season to season in the past. Damon Harrison will be a loss in the run game. But mostly, this is a team that doesn’t look to have changed much. They still have a lot of high draft picks that aren’t panning out on their roster, and that sort of has the natural effect of weakening a team year on year, as you can’t rely on Dee Milliner where you’d planned for him to start by now, say.

What’ll 2016 Be Like Then? I still don’t quite know how this team got 10-6 last year. Their offensive is canny and experienced but not young, and definitely not explosive. The defense will, you’d think, be a nip below last year. I feel like the Jets are due a bad season, a 6-10, but the main thing is, they’re not really going to be exciting, which is kind of worse.

Buffalo Bills

2015 record: 8-8, so obviously that playoff spot Rex Ryan ‘guaranteed’, never materialised. Funny, that.

What’s To Love? If he’s fit, Sammy Watkins is insanely good. Watkins can stretch the field, run nifty routes, beat coverage, and help the Bills win games. If he’s fit. Tyrod Taylor looks like a great discovery at quarterback – he doesn’t put up huge numbers, but he takes few risks, makes plays with his feet, and was a wonderful surprise last year. Buffalo are pretty tough in the secondary too, with Ronald Darby being a pleasant surprise from the second round last year.

What’s Not To Love? This team have the most overrated coach in the NFL, a “defensive mastermind” who is basically an unsophisticated fossil. He single-handedly dismantled one of the most terrifying pass rushes in recent years, to be replaced with nothing. It doesn’t look much better this season – Buffalo’s first two draft picks are already out injured for most or all of the season; their star nose tackle has a four-game ban and is now in rehab, and another backup linebacker’s also lost for the season. There are a fair few players in decline here, and the signs are not good.

What’ll 2016 Be Like Then? I don’t really see good things, but I think it’ll be okay. There is a lot of talent here; it might be aging, but you’d expect Buffalo to hold their own in key situations. Similarly, having Tyrod Taylor and Sammy Watkins should help the offense keep ticking along. But I have zero faith in Rex Ryan in coaching this team to a better record than 7-9.

Miami Dolphins

2015 record: 6-10, but this was an utterly joyless season.

What’s To Love? He’s overpaid, but Ndamukong Suh played fantastically last season, it’s just no-one playing his position can be worth that high a percentage of the salary cap. Reshad Jones is one of the top 5 safeties in the league, Jarvis Landry is incredibly fun to watch at receiver. Oh, and I always love the combination of teal and orange. Yay, different colours!

What’s Not To Love? Yuck. Ryan Tannehill does not look like a quarterback that can lead a team to a winning record. No deep arm, no heart, not special in any way whatsoever. Their best pass rusher, Olivier Vernon, is in New York now. They paid the price for underusing Lamar Miller for years, and he’s left too. Miami got a steal in picking up Laremy Tunsil in the draft, but he didn’t fill a need as yet and will be played out of position at guard in his first season. The secondary outside of Reshad Jones looks terrifyingly bad.

What’ll 2016 Be Like Then? Miami could be a sneaky choice to have first overall pick next year. There’s nothing really notable, interesting or exciting here, and the Dolphins have a history of having complete and utter locker room meltdowns, thus plunging the team into a spiral of acrimonious decline. It’s pretty entertaining to watch, unless you’re Jonathan Martin. That might happen, but either way I doubt Miami’ll finish better than 4-12.

Draft Tipper: NFC and AFC East

So, our tips for the North divisions were out of date within a day! But they’ve been updated and we’re just in time to talk about Philadelphia’s new position, and guess at players who may be drafted across the NFC East and AFC East. What do you all think of this? Why not get in touch with us on Twitter with your thoughts. And if you’re not sure about what any of the positions mean, you’ll find plenty of information on what position does what in our Glossary.

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

The pick: 4th overall
They need: Wide Receiver, 4-3 Defensive End, 4-3 Linebacker, Cornerback

Who might they go for in the first round? There are only really four players in likely play if Dallas pick at 4 and don’t trade – Joey Bosa and DeForest Buckner would be edge rushers (though I have seen that people have doubts about whether Buckner would work in a 4-3 defense), Myles Jack at linebacker and Jalen Ramsey at cornerback/safety. At least two of those players will still be available at that point.

In the second round? Any receiver that slips to the second round is in play to take up the slot across from Dez Bryant – so, Corey Coleman, Will Fuller and Michael Thomas are the likely choices. Pass rushers like Kevin Dodd or Noah Spence (if he slides) will also be in play. There aren’t really any linebackers in this range, unless Darron Lee slides, but cornerbacks like Xavien Howard, and maybe Eli Apple or Mackensie Alexander could be around. Also start keeping an eye out for running backs here – Derrick Henry might be the pick here.

New York Giants

They pick: 10th overall
They need: Wide Receiver, Offensive Tackle, 4-3 Linebacker, Safety

Who might they go for in the first round? People would see it as a reach, but Laquon Treadwell is the kind of wide receiver they’re looking for. At tackle, if Ronnie Stanley’s still on the board they’d be delighted, but I suspect Jack Conklin is more realistic. There likely aren’t any linebackers and safeties suitable for picking here, so the Giants may go for a best player available approach.

In the second round? This is the sort of range for Michael Thomas, Braxton Miller and Tyler Boyd, depending on what kind of wide receiver they want. At tackle, they may be able to get Germain Ifedi, but Jason Spriggs and Le’Raven Clark are more realistic. Linebackers like Kamalei Correa and Scooby Wright are pickable here, as are most safeties: Vonn Bell, Karl Joseph and Keanu Neal are all in play.

Philadelphia Eagles

They pick: 2nd overall (no second round pick)
They need: Quarterback, Running back, Offensive Guard, 4-3 Linebacker

Who might they go for in the first round? Philadelphia sure love a pick merry-go-round. They gave up their second round pick to the Rams last year to snag Sam Bradford, and yet here we are again, giving up one future first- and one future second-round pick (as well as this year’s third-rounder) to trade with the Browns for another quarterback. Obviously the Rams have the first pick, but you would hope for the Eagles’ sake that they knew before making the trade which of the two quarterbacks Los Angeles will go for, and it wasn’t the one they wanted. My guess would be that, if the Eagles haven’t just blindly traded up not knowing who’ll be left, it means the Rams want the more pro-ready Goff, while the Eagles want a succession plan in place for Carson Wentz (who would ideally sit and learn for a little while first) to eventually take over from either Sam Bradford or Chase Daniel.

Washington

They pick: 21st overall
They need: Center, 3-4 Defensive End, 3-4 Inside Linebacker, Cornerback

Who might they go for in the first round? Ryan Kelly’s the only center in play here. They may go for A’Shawn Robinson, Jarran Reed, or even Robert Nkemdiche at defensive end. Reggie Ragland is probably the only linebacker in play here. At cornerback, Washington can look at Mackensie Alexander, William Jackson and Eli Apple, at least one of whom you’d think will be available.

In the second round? Nick Martin is the second-best center in the draft, and would fit here. At defensive end, Hassan Ridgeway, Jihad Ward and Adolphus Washington are pickable here. I hope they go for Washington because of the name synergy! At linebacker, here’s a chance to take a punt on Jaylon Smith, but otherwise Su’a Cravens, Kamalei Correa and Kyler Fackrell may be considered. At corner, Kendall Fuller may be another ‘take a punt’ candidate, while Artie Burns should also be on the board.

EDIT: Well, since Washington have signed Josh Norman to a five-year contract, I don’t expect them to go for cornerback in the first couple of rounds now – having Norman and Breeland there should allow them to focus on other areas.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

They pick: 19th overall
They need: Wide receiver, Offensive Guard, 4-3 Defensive End, 4-3 Linebacker

Who might they go for in the first round? It’s possible no wide receivers will have gone by the time the Bills are on the clock, so Donald Trump-endorser Rex Ryan will have his pick of Laquon Treadwell, Corey Coleman, Will Fuller and Josh Doctson. Defensive ends like Shaq Lawson, Emmanuel Ogbah and Noah Spence are in play here. For linebackers, this is about where you’d expect to see Reggie Ragland picked.

In the second round? They’d be delighted if Michael Thomas is still available, but realistically Tyler Boyd, Braxton Miller and maybe even Pharoh Cooper are more realistic. The top guard, Cody Whitehair will be in play, and there are a few defensive ends like Carl Nassib and Jihad Ward around. At linebacker, Jaylon Smith may be tempting, but if they want someone to contribute this year, Su’a Cravens and Kamalei Correa are more realistic.

Miami Dolphins

They pick: 13th overall
They need: Running back, Offensive Guard, 4-3 Defensive End, Cornerback

Who might they go for in the first round? By trading with Philadelphia, they have less chance of landing Ezekiel Elliott now, and there aren’t really any guards realistic with this pick, unless they want to turn Jack Conklin or Taylor Decker into one. Miami may take a flyer on Shaq Lawson in this range, but a cornerback like William Jackson or Eli Apple would work just as well too.

In the second round? If Derrick Henry’s still there, he’d be a great running back, with Devontae Booker as a decent alternative. Cody Whitehair’s the top guard and would be in play, though Germain Ifedi and Jason Spriggs are the sort of tackle a coach might like to turn into a guard. At defensive end, Shilique Calhoun, Noah Spence and Kevin Dodd may be around to pick. At cornerback, Xavien Howard and Artie Burns are in play, as is Kendall Fuller, who may or may not be able to contribute this year.

New England Patriots

They pick: 60th and 61st overall (no 1st round pick)
They need: Running back, Offensive Guard, Center, 4-3 Defensive End

Who might they go for in the second round? At running back, Devontae Booker would be a good scenario, but more likely it’ll be picking one of Kenneth Dixon, CJ Prosise or Paul Perkins. Guards like Cody Whitehair, Joshua Garnett and Spencer Drango will be available, though turning a tackle like Germain Ifedi into a guard will also be a consideration. Nick Martin may be available at center, and at 4-3 end, Shilique Calhoun, Carl Nassib and Charles Tapper may be around. Though good luck to anyone trying to second-guess Bill Bellichick.

New York Jets

They pick: 20th overall
They need: Quarterback, Offensive Tackle, 3-4 Outside Linebacker, 3-4 Inside Linebacker

Who might they go for in the first round? Paxton Lynch is the top quarterback in range at this point, and there’s a good chance he’s already gone, so if the Jets really want a first-round quarterback, it’s time to reach for Connor Cook. At tackle, Jack Conklin and Taylor Decker are projected to go around about here. Shaq Lawson and Noah Spence are big pass rushers who could go here, while Leonard Floyd and Darron Lee are more traditional outside linebackers. At inside linebacker, this is Reggie Ragland country.

In the second round? Connor Cook may even still be on the board, but if the Jets want a project, Cardale Jones, Dak Prescott or Christian Hackenberg may be in play. At tackle, Jason Spriggs and Le’Raven Clark are feasible, and at pass-rusher, Shilique Calhoun and Yannick Ngakoue may be in play. At linebacker, look out for Scooby Wright, Su’a Cravens, and maybe Beniquez Brown.

Conference Round Catchup

Well, that’s it. No more Sunday matches on at reasonable times, and only one more match to go (and the Pro Bowl, but meh). It’s been a good season; though one super tight and one super one-sided match each feels a fitting way to lead into the Super Bowl.

New England 18, Denver 20

Wow, this match was a corker. It wasn’t, perhaps, the sort of whizz-bang entertainment you’d want to try and use to persuade a newcomer to get into the NFL, but it was a thriller nonetheless. Denver’s defense is an absolute terror, and they’re the reason Denver won. It was a complete performance – on the line, Derek Wolfe and Malik Jackson were tearing through New England’s interior early, which made Tom Brady more skittish than usual. That set it up for Von Miller and Demarcus Ware to get more one-on-ones and pressure around the outside, which left chaos to ensue. The secondary played its part, as Bradley Roby and Chris Harris kept Julian Edelman mostly quiet.

Miller was an absolute terror, with 2.5 sacks, an interception, tackles for loss, you name it. He’s started his career exactly how you’d want a future Hall of Famer to start one (60 sacks in 4 and a half seasons stands out), and on Sunday he was downright unblockable. Brady was hit 19 times in total, as the so-so offensive line chose exactly the wrong game to look sluggish in.

Denver started surprisingly well on offense, driving downfield for a touchdown on their first possession, then turning Miller’s interception into a second (both TD passes going to tight end Owen Daniels), and getting a field goal before half time. New England also got a touchdown and a field goal in that first half, though missed the extra point. The second half was even more attritional, New England and then Denver adding a field goal before defences took over. Brady was able to use injuries to Denver’s two starting safeties to drive downfield, but two fourth-down stops in the red zone meant that New England needed a touchdown and two-point conversion right at the death to force overtime. They got the TD (on fourth down, no less!), but the two-pointer was stopped, and Denver won.

Denver are an interesting proposition in the Super Bowl. They tore through a middling offensive line and half a fantastic secondary, but scored just six points in the last 43 minutes of action. New England’s defense is good, but not that good.

Arizona 15, Carolina 49

Unlike the earlier match, this wasn’t a corker. Well, it wasn’t dramatic, but for a clinic of how to dominate in all elements of the game, watch Carolina. Cam Newton’s two rushing and passing touchdowns will garner deserving headlines, because he’s downright unstoppable. He got 100 yard receiving games out of Greg Olsen (not that hard to do) and Corey Brown (very hard to do), though Browns was because of an 86-yard TD where he broke free of the Arizona D. Ted Ginn crossed the field twice when turning a reverse into a 22-yard TD, and Jonathan Stewart kept the ground game a threat.

And that was just the offense! The defense intercepted Carson Palmer a cool four times (Kurt Coleman ballhawking another two – he has nine on the season), with Luke Kuechly returning his for a TD. Kawaan Short and Charles Johnson forced fumbles. No wide receiver or tight end had 40 yards receiving. The only concern Carolina may have defensively was that excellent running back David Johnson caught nine passes for 68 yards, ran 15 times for 60 yards and a touchdown, and looked like a real threat.

Carolina started this game fast again, but didn’t let up in the second half as they did against Seattle last week. 17-0 became 24-7, became 34-15, and finally 49-15, with even a cheeky late two-point conversion when one really wasn’t necessary.

This team are lots of fun to watch, and even though they’ll go into Super Bowl as favourites, they still have this upstart personality. The defense might be a smidgen less terrifying than Denver’s, but they create turnovers like there’s no tomorrow, and while the run and pass game are humming, with plenty of flashy plays as a bonus, they’re going to be great to watch in Santa Clara.

Conference Previews by Roughing the Passer

Roughing the Passer is back! For his last set of previews of the season (we’ll do something a bit bigger than just him talking crap for the Super Bowl in a fortnight’s team), and he’s left the greatest treat for laughing at him for the last one. I met RtP in the pub last weekend to watch Chiefs-Pats, and got an email regarding his timing prior to arrival. What did the email say? “Hey, will be a bit late thanks to a slightly ramshackle wassail”.  He was late because he went wassailing. Enjoy the conference championships, everyone!

New England at Denver – Sunday ‘evening’

Two more games. Just two more games. A couple of hours. 120 minutes of football. Really, when you think about it, only 7,200 brief seconds, each one slipping by as the digital clock flashes, inexorably, down to zero. And then? And then what? What of Peyton Manning and his record-breaking career? How will leave behind the sport that he grew up with, helped to shape, and ultimately made his own? If he can rustle up two more games – tie up his laces, shuffle on every piece of body armour, squeeze his red and sweaty forehead into his helmet a few more times – he could limp away as a hero, the man who pushed and pushed beyond the point where his body was broken and somehow, incredibly, made it all the way. A second Super Bowl, one to match his younger, luckier, brother, one that would silence the doubters that said for all his numbers, for all his touchdowns and passing yards and his ability to read the defence and manipulate the line of scrimmage like a conductor in a symphony hall, for all of that, he couldn’t ever quite win enough. That he couldn’t do it in the cold. Couldn’t get it together in January. Couldn’t make it really count. Peyton Manning is a sure-fire hall of famer who is famous for losing. But if he can play just two more games of football, he can make it right.

(Of course, he could also end up being shipped to the Texans next year and pissing everybody off.)

I believe. I said earlier this season, when Manning was watching from the sidelines with his foot in a protective boot after a painful on-field display, that this was what the narrative needed. Before every triumphant ending, there needed to be despondency, despair, desolation, and this was his. Watch his career seemingly end as a flaming wreck, tires flying off into the abyss (Ed – tires…flying off…into the abyss?), only to somehow right the wagon, get it back on the track, and wheel it towards glory, before riding off into the sunset forever.

I’m still rooting for this. The fierce defence that has underpinned Denver’s success all season long is still here, and could still make it possible. If the running game can get its act together, and Peyton’s receivers can catch even half of the balls that are tossed their way (I know some of the throws have been ugly, but they haven’t been THAT bad), then they could still have a fighting chance.

Sadly, the Patriots are as inevitable as a winter cold. Like rusty bum wee after a Friday night curry, they’ll turn up and make you wince. With Edelman, Gronk, and Amendola, it’s an offence that can be lethal without even bothering to pick a starting RB, and with Belichick and Brady at the helm (seeing them together always reminds me of Yoda on the Sith: “Always two there are; no more, no less. A master and an apprentice.”) expect the crushing, grinding efficiency to continue.

I want Manning to win this. But I don’t think he will.

Arizona at Carolina – Sunday ‘night’

It’s a shame that the NFL is structured in such a way that sometimes, we don’t really get to see the matches we want to see. Just as a good team can be trapped in a strong division and miss a playoff spot in favour of the best team in a shitty division, so can the essential AFC/NFC split mean that sometimes, the talent is all pooled in one side. The Cardinals and the Panthers are two of the best teams in the league, if we’re being honest, they’re the best teams, but one of the them is going to miss out on the Super Bowl thanks to the whims of a schedule cooked up decades ago.

I like both of these teams, and I think anyone who isn’t clutching their pearls and worrying about the children does as well – Arizona’s depth is full of mature players who deserve a ring, and an offence happy to take great, drunken shots down the field. Meanwhile the Panthers are just fun, with a charismatic quarterback, an offence that keeps driving and making exciting things happen, and a defence that gives up nothing (if we ignore the last 30 minutes of the Seahawks game. What exactly were they up to there?).

I guess if the Panthers spend enough time and effort on watering their pitch, they could just get it into an bad enough condition for the Cardinals (who are used to playing on the surface of Mars) to feel totally out of their comfort zone. Perhaps that’s been their tactic the whole time. Combine an easy schedule with a death-trap playing surface, and watch the magic happen.

Ultimately, this is probably the game that, in a fairer universe, the Super Bowl would have been. But I guess we can just enjoy it now. I think it will be close. But I think the swagger of the Panthers might just give them the edge.

Divisional Round Catchup

First up, apologies for the lack of a wild card round up last week. Sadly, real life caught up. It happens. Anyway, the Divisional games were impressively bonkers, all finished with the losers one score behind the winners, so were tight and exciting. Tighting.

Kansas City 20, New England 27
The one team regarding whom I will be shamelessly partisan when they’re playing are New England. I always want them to lose. There’s just something about Bellichick that puts me in mind of Jose Mourinho – the person who more than most turned me from a round football fan into someone who couldn’t give two hoots. So, Saturday evening mostly consisted of me muttering “well this is depressing” to poor Roughing the Passer, who managed to retain his optimism.

The game was never as close as the scoreline suggested. New England jumped out to an early lead thanks to Gronk, and Chiefs spent the first half answering touchdowns with field goals. One difference here was the offenses – Alex Smith does a great deal of dink and dunk, we all know, but Tom Brady doesn’t run the Pats offense that differently, with the amount of quick passes he throws. The difference? Well, other than the quality of receivers, where Smith’s passes are caught at around the line of scrimmage, Brady’s are caught six or seven yards further downfield. It’s this weird mix of conservatism and aggression that really neutralises opposing defences, and seems so well suited to an aging Brady whose arm is only going to get weaker (albeit, no-one knows how much it will). Also, Brady is a half-plausible deep threat. Defenses did well, but the Chiefs really missed Justin Houston, as they just couldn’t get to Tom Brady behind that healthy-again O-Line.

Green Bay 20, Arizona 26
This game was decided in overtime, with Arizona possessing the ball first, and scoring a touchdown, ending the game. There’s been a bit of griping about this since, and to be fair I understand the gripes. It would make more sense to give both teams a chance to possess the ball no matter what happens. It just seems fairer that way, not to mention less anti-climactic for the team who never gets a go.

This was a fun game, one of those where there were piles of yards on offense despite nothing quite clicking for either team. An uncharacteristically inconsistent Carson Palmer still threw for 349 yards, of which 176 went to Larry Fitzgerald. A still slightly off-colour Aaron Rodgers threw for 261, of which 145 went to Jeff Janis (who managed a stats-breaking 101 receiving yards on the last drive before overtime. Yep, 101 yards.) Both teams defended well, especially against the run (one Eddie Lacy 61-yard run aside), and this was a fun back-and-forth battle. The Cards got an early touchdown but went 13-7 down, before a field goal, a seven-minute-sapping drive and another field goal put them 20-13 up, at which point Rodgers found Janis twice, overtime happened, then one 75 yard and one 5 yard pass from Palmer to Fitzgerald closed the game up, and sent Arizona into the NFC Championship.

Seattle 24, Carolina 31
Carolina are making a bit of a habit of this, aren’t they? I thought their ability to give fans the willies in the second half had reached its nadir during the Giants game, but this might have been worse. Teams with 31 point leads should probably not be giving opponents a sniff at coming back into games, but it did at least leave us with an entertainingly weird looking quarter-by-quarter score.

So anyway, Carolina were 14 points up within 3:14, as Jonathan Stewart followed an impeccably-blocked 59 yard run (buy Michael Oher and Andrew Norwell a drink, Jonathan) with a 4-yard TD run, and Luke Kuechly pick-six’d Russell Wilson. Carolina got another Stewart rushing TD, another interception, this time followed by Newton-to-Olsen for the TD, and a Gano field goal made it 31-0 at the half. Then, everything unravelled. Coverage schemes inched towards the dreaded “prevent”, which no-one should be doing on the first drive of the second half, Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse woke up, but most importantly, so did Russell Wilson. Carolina’s defense managed to get just enough of a foothold in quarter four to slow the Seahawks down, and the offense got just enough first downs to run the clock down, but Carolina only won this game because they made Seattle run out of time. Carolina just have to sort out this second half malaise they have if they’re to win the two games they need to turn that league-best record into a Super Bowl win.

Pittsburgh 16, Denver 23
I’m not entirely sure how Pittsburgh lost this game. They seemed to be the much more effective team, passing the ball well, and running the ball functionally, if not amazingly. The defense seemed relatively stout, albeit with the occasional lapse against the run. Denver looked bad, but they got far enough downfield to kick five field goals and eventually get a touchdown, so there you go.

It’s hard to watch this game and think Peyton Manning’s still completely up to the task. He didn’t throw a pick, but his passes don’t fizz any more, and they’re not always on target. He’ll be grateful to still have Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas, but this Denver O misses a reliable and dynamic tight end, which Owen Daniels definitely isn’t. The defense didn’t look to be playing its best game, but it stiffened when it mattered, recording three sacks and forcing a Fitzgerald Toussaint fumble that proved to be a turning point. Up until then, Pittsburgh looked the better team, with Martavis Bryant going over 150 yards, and Sammie Coates and Darrius Hayward-Bey both providing threatening WR3 options. But it all changed on the fumble, as momentum shifted to Denver, and they took seven fourth-quarter minutes off the clock as Ronnie Hillman got them to the red zone, then CJ Anderson plunged over to give them a lead that the defense held firm enough, with the help of a recovered onside kick, to hold on to.

Divisional Previews by Roughing the Passer

So, here we are at the Divisional round. After this weekend, just two more Sunday nights of football, and then seven months off. So enjoy Roughing the Passer’s previews while you still can. Now, many of us did embarrassing things when we were younger. Many of us for a time fancied ourselves as ‘artists’, and started painting, or writing poetry, or formed a band. It’s not uniformly terrible, but it often had, looking back, cringeworthy intentions. What I’m trying to say is however bad your old band’s name was, Roughing the Passer was briefly in a band called “Classical Texts in Translation”. Enjoy the weekend football, y’all!

Kansas City at New England – Saturday ‘evening’

To paraphrase the late, great Elton John: SATURDAY! SAT-UR-DAY! SAAAAAT-UR-DAY! Saturday night’s alright for showing professional football! No, but really. It’s great. Especially speaking as an NFL fan in the UK. Usually we have to wait until Sunday evening for the joys of football to come into our lives, but playoff season means that the entire weekend is full of the joys of football. They can’t do it all season long because Saturday is reserved for the glitz, glamour and unpaid labour of college football. so make the most of it while it’s here… soon, football will be gone for good (well, until September. I don’t mean it’s actually disappearing. Concussion didn’t exactly do that well at the box office. Enjoy your Oscar nomination, Will! Oh, wait…)

We open the weekend with the unbeatable (apparently) Chiefs making their way to New England, where a raft of injury concerns mean they’re vulnerable in a way they haven’t been for a long time. The Patriots like to preach this whole “Patriot Way” bullshit, where it’s all about doing your job and getting on with the game in hand, but Christ, there isn’t another team out there who revels in its gossip magazine presence. These idiots basically stagger around smelling their own farts. Even in this bye week, a year removed from Deflategate and all the rest of it, they’ve managed to have one player rock up as a babbling mess outside a police station, while their coach, the angry principal from every high school film ever, is sporting a black eye, and refuses to talk about it. Very suspicious. Meanwhile, Tom Brady has shown up in weirdo-hipster online journal thing True Ink, making pancakes. WTF? Just shut up guys. Go and play football.

Everything sort of looks like it should go the Chiefs’ way, which it means it won’t. Edelman and Gronk will go off on one, and the Pats’ defence will shut down an offence that has been consistent, but underwhelming (who have they really beat on this streak?). And everyone will be miserable.

Green Bay at Arizona – Saturday ‘night’

In terms of disappointing games to watch, the worst are just straight blowouts. To watch a team rack up 30+ points in the first half, while the other stands around scratching their helmets (“Hey, guys, are we taking the ball that way?”) feels like a pointless exercise, especially if you’re sacrificing valuable hours of sleep before a Monday in the office to do so (THANKS, SUPERBOWL XLVIII). So the last time these two teams played, it was sort of disappointing from a neutral point of view. Aaron Rodgers got his arms torn off by the Cardinal’s pass-rush, the Arizona defence scored more than most team’s offences – the whole thing was a mess.

Speaking as a Lions fan forced to suffer in the same division as Green Bay, I thought it was FANTASTIC. And best of all, there’s no reason to expect it not to happen again. Yes. the Cards looked a bit rough against the Seahawks. True, the Packers managed to deal with Washington handily. But the Cardinals are NOT Washington. We’re done here. Not your year, Green Bay. Take your fucking Hail Marys and fuck off back to the frozen north, then come back to haunt me in the autumn.

Seattle at Carolina – Sunday ‘afternoon’

I’m so glad this is early game, because this should be a real humdinger. The Panthers have the better record, but the Seahawks are on a hot streak (aside from the very very cold situation they were in last week), in fact, this is just about as even as it gets. Two running quarterbacks who have learnt how to throw from the pocket to devastating effect; two stingy defences who can knock you around and create takeaways; two receiving cores which lack star power but can get the job done.

I honestly don’t know who will win this. It’s a coin flip. But I know who I want to win. While I’m all for watching talent at its best and seeing dynasties bestriding the ages like a colossus, I also want to see Russell Wilson have his arse handed to him, like how Cam Newton hands his touchdown balls to kids in the stands. Do it for me, Cam! *Swoons*

Pittsburgh at Denver – Sunday ‘evening’

This should have been another great game, and to be honest none of the games this weekend are bad. But thanks to the self-destructive tendencies of AFC North teams (Hard nosed! Gritty! Kind of stupid!), the Steelers are a shell of themselves, with no Antonio “I’d like to thank the Academy” Brown, and Big Bad Ben likely to play with a mangled shoulder, if he plays at all. That doesn’t mean this is over though, since the Broncos are similarly under-powered, especially with Peyton back under centre. But that’s where the spirit of this game resides. Is he capable of playing a whole game? Can the defence hold stout and give him the opportunity to win? Will anyone be watching out for Brock Osweiler in the stands, holding a high-powered assault rifle with telescopic sight, ready to claim the starting job for good?

I’m totally partisan here. I love Peyton and his ridiculous, (Long Snapper laywers – Snip!) head, and I want to see him ride out into the sunset in a blaze of glory with a final Superbowl trophy (won’t happen). The Steelers are kind of grimy, and while they’d usually be able to overpower the opposition, the number the Bengals did on them with their self-destruction means they’re lopsided and flawed. This is the Broncos’ game to lose, and I don’t think they will.

2015 Playoffs: Team by Team

Twelve teams have made the playoffs then, and only one can triumph. Who’ll that be? Well, we don’t know, and frankly our predictions are probably going to be way off. BUT let’s predict anyway, because it’s fun and interesting to write and read.

NFC Playoff Teams

#1 Seed – Carolina
Strengths: Multiple. Cam Newton’s an incredible quarterback, possessed with a rocket arm, rushing ability, big-play ability, you name it. Despite having a relatively low accuracy percentage (in part brought about by throwing more deep passes, and having no receivers who can catch), he’s been careful enough with the football, and has accounted for 45 touchdowns this season. The defense are monsters – Kawaan Short is one of the best interior linemen in the league, Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis are an intelligent, instinctive and brutish linebacker duo, and Josh Norman is a shutdown corner (most of the time)
Weaknesses: There are a few spots lacking in depth around the roster. Who’ll play corner opposite Josh Norman is still up in the air. As good as they are on the defensive interior (linemen and linebackers), the outside pass-rush is only so-so. And their run game may suffer without Jonathan Stewart, who’s injury-prone and injured.
Will they win it? They’re a pretty good shout to. I mean, they’ve only lost once all year, they’re accomplished in all areas of the game. It’ll take a very specific gameplan while manages to isolate their few weaknesses to beat them (but then, doesn’t that always?).

#2 Seed – Arizona
Strengths: Again, multiple. Carson Palmer is enjoying a career-best year having only just turned 36. He has a resurgent Larry Fitzgerald to throw to, as well as two other great starters in Michael Floyd and John Brown, and a bevvy of other good contributors. The run game has been great whichever Johnson has started (Chris and David). Only one team (Carolina) has scored more points this season. Their defense is strong, and Dwight Freeney spins his way to sack after sack after sack. They’re so versatile too – before his injury, Tyrann Mathieu played a cornerback-safety hybrid role that teams just couldn’t deal with. Deone Bucannon is part linebacker, part strong safety.
Weaknesses: There didn’t look like any, but they got absolutely destroyed by Seattle in the last week of the season. Don’t forget they were playing for the number 1 seed, so it’s not like they could afford to take the week off. The offensive line is great in the run game but you worry about it in pass protection. And those injuries are starting to mount up.
Will they win it? I was all ready to say “yes” loudly here before the Seattle game. One game shouldn’t mean a huge amount. It’s just that Arizona’ll have to beat Seattle to get to the Super Bowl in the first place. And if not Seattle, then another team who are strong in similar areas: Carolina.

#3 Seed – Minnesota
Strengths: I love watching this defense so much. They get so much penetration through the middle with Linval Joseph, are terrifying on the outside with Everson Griffen, Danielle Hunter and Brian Robison racking up the sacks. Then they have Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr waiting in the wings behind the line. Oh, and just the small matter of Harrison Smith, who might be the league’s best safety, sitting behind them. Add in to that the league’s leading rusher, Adrian Peterson, and you see why they made the playoffs.
Weaknesses: Outside of Peterson, the offense does look a bit dicky. The line has done surprisingly well but struggles in pass protection. Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t kicked on this year, and though he doesn’t cost Minnesota games, he’s not going to win many on his own. Of course, without any top receivers, he’s limited in his development, but either way the offense needs the defense to keep them ahead in games.
Will they win it? No, sorry. They play Seattle first up, who are as good on defense but more threatening on offense. The only hope is that their defense will destroy Seattle’s weak offensive line, but it’s not as if Seattle won’t do the same back in return. Minnesota are young and will improve, but they’re too one-dimensional on offense right now.

#4 Seed – Washington
Strengths: The reasoning side of my brain is trying to stop me writing “Kirk Cousins” here, because that doesn’t make sense. But Cousins has been great the second half of the season. But why is that? Well, the offensive line has seriously kicked on. DeSean Jackson came back from injury and having him as a deep threat keeps defences on their toes. Ryan Kerrigan is also playing fantastically, rushing from the edge.
Weaknesses: There’s a lot of just okay players in this team. The secondary in particular is struggling – Will Blackmon (cut by the Seahawks preseason) has appeared too much, and they’ve just signed Cary Williams (cut by the Seahawks midseason) to provide depth. While the rush linebackers are fine, the defensive line also is a bit something and nothing, even with Terrance “Pot Roast” Knighton.
Will they win it? No, but they might win a game (or two) and surprise people. They haven’t beaten a single team with a winning record this year, and have only played two playoff bound teams (Carolina and New England), games they lost by a combined score of 71-26.

#5 Seed – Green Bay
Strengths: The defense, oddly. Mike Daniels has been brutal enough up front to go from “decent starter” to getting a big tasty new contract. Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers are still stars at linebacker, Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix is ever improving at safety, and Sam Shields is a good head cornerback. They also have a guy called Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, who might be the best quarterback in the league (even if he hasn’t always played like it this year).
Weaknesses: The offense has been bizarrely bereft this year. Losing a receiver as good as Jordy Nelson to a preseason injury is going to hurt any team, but we all thought Randall Cobb and Davante Adams would step up. Cobb partly has, Adams definitely hasn’t. These last two years, Eddie Lacy looked to have given Green Bay a solid run game, yet this year he just hasn’t cut it often enough, struggling with weight and injury.
Will they win it? I don’t think so. Aaron Rodgers always gives them a chance, and they’re coached fantastically. But there are some teams against whom good coaching and planning just can’t overcome the performance gap, and that’ll be Green Bay’s downfall.

#6 Seed – Seattle
Strengths: We all know about the defense. About how Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril are terrifying up front, about how Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor are fantastic in the back end. But in addition to all these, check out KJ Wright at linebacker, who’s stout against the run and the pass. Russell Wilson has been fantastic in the second half of the season, as has Doug Baldwin. Marshawn Lynch should be back for the playoffs, but even if he isn’t, and even with Thomas Rawls also out for the season, Christine Michael has finally looked like the runner the world thought he was since entering the lineup these last few weeks.
Weaknesses: Sweet lord, the offensive line. For the first half of the season, it legitimately looked like they were trying to get Russell Wilson killed. Maybe he scammed them into buying some of his Fake Bullshit Water, or something. Also, outside of Doug Baldwin, the receivers are the sort of players who need Russell Wilson to do most of the work in them getting the ball. Jermaine Kearse, Luke Willson and co are okay, but okay’s not that good in the playoffs.
Will they win it? They certainly could. Russell Wilson’s the best quarterback you can have if your offensive line’s bad, and this is a team that can match up well against anyone on its day. If they’re to win it, I think it’ll be because the run defense makes opponents too one-dimensional and easier to defend.

AFC Playoff Teams:

#1 Seed – Denver
Strengths: Denver have the best defense in the NFL and it isn’t even close. At cornerback, Chris Harris and Aqib Talib are both going to the pro bowl, and Bradley Roby’s a good third cornerback. At safety, TJ Ward is probably the most underrated player on this team. At linebacker, Von Miller. Holy shit, Von Miller is terrifyingly good. DeMarcus Ware hasn’t been at his best this season but that’s a terrifying pass rush. And then they have Brandon Marshall (no, not that one) and Danny Trevathan at inside linebacker, which is also pretty terrifying. Wow.
Weaknesses: How can you be a number 1 seed and not know who your starting quarterback is. Peyton Manning has been rebuilt but all the parts aren’t quite performing at maximum efficiency. Brock Osweiler is as so-so as his name is bizarre. At least the running game’s coming good, because although those two receivers (Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders) are strengths, they’ve had a few cases of the dropsies lately.
Will they win it? Teams with a middling offense generally need an all-world defense to triumph, and Denver certainly have one of those. They’ve won several low-scoring contests, and have overtime wins against New England and Cincinnati already, plus a more comfortable one over Green Bay. Also, the running game has started to click these last few weeks, which is a tad portentous for other teams.

#2 Seed – New England
Strengths: Tom Brady, who when he’s not squirming about Donald Trump, finds the time to run an efficient offense, broken up with passes to their other strength, Rob Gronkowski. Actually, it’s a bit unfair on the well-run defense to lead with Brady. Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins are the sort of players you don’t notice who win you games just by shutting down options for the opposition. Collins can tackle, cover, do anything really. But there’s quality across the defense: no team would sniff at Rob Ninkovich, Dont’a Hightower, Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung.
Weaknesses: WOW that’s a lot of players on injured reserve. Notably, their best tackle Nate Solder is on injured reserve, right tackle Sebastian Vollmer is in-again-out-again, their backup LaAdrian Waddle, cut by the O-line-poor Lions, isn’t fully fit, nor is starting guard Josh Kline. Oh, and Brady got a high ankle sprain in the week. Their run game’s been poor since Dion Lewis went on season-ending injured reserve too.
Will they win it? While my shamelessly biased side says “I hope not”, they are the Patriots and so they can always win it. A hobbled Tom Brady is still a threat to anyone, Bill Bellichick is still an excellent head coach, albeit one with a Mourinho-sized dark side (or maybe “because he’s” rather than “albeit”, and that defense is going to be tricky for anyone to unpick.

#3 Seed – Cincinnati
Strengths: This is a well-run, deep team with balance across the roster, high calibre head coach and coordinators, and a sweet uniform whenever they turn out in orange. AJ Green and Tyler Eifert are top drawer wide receiver and tight end prototypes. Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard are the best running back one-two punch around. Geno Atkins is one heck of a destructive defensive lineman. Reggie Nelson, Carlos Dunlap, George Iloka et al are solid starters. Andrew Whitworth is a star tackle finally going to his first Pro Bowl. Andy Dalton’s finally performing at a high level as a quarterback.
Weaknesses: At least he was. Then he got injured. Now last year’s fifth-round pick AJ McCarron has to steer his team through games. He was always going to be at least a game manager, but he has to quickly develop the ability to do more than that (the potential is there). And, for all that this is a well-built roster, outside of Atkins and Green there are no superstars here. That wouldn’t be a problem with early season Dalton quarterbacking, but they might just need to be a tiny bit better to make it.
Will they win it? Doubt it, but stranger things have happened. They’ll need the odd opponent to underperform, and a few of the solid players to have star performances, but the depth is there. Dalton should be back if they win their first game, so a lot will hinge on that.

#4 Seed – Houston
Strengths: JJ Watt and DeAndre Hopkins, basically. Especially Watt, for whom a down year would constitute “not winning Defensive Player of the Year”. He destroys all but the stoutest double-teams, and if he destroys that, he destroys your quarterback to the tune of 17.5 sacks this year. Oh, and he has Whitney Mercilus alongside him, who’s pretty darned good. Hopkins is an elite wide receiver, and no other skill position players on this team come close. He creates separation, he wins contested catches, he’s very reliable.
Weaknesses: Houston won the weakest division in the NFL, and they’re the weakest team in the playoffs. Like Washington, there’s a bucketload of mediocrity here. Without their best offensive linemen (Duane Brown, just this week gone to injured reserve), pass rushers will severely test their perfectly fine but no better quarterback, Brian Hoyer. The cornerbacks are fairly decent, but they’re weak at safety. The running game’s been so-so ever since Arian Foster went on injured reserve, and none of the tight ends are particular threats.
Will they win it? No. There aren’t enough good players, and whereas the roster’s well-coached, that’s not enough. JJ Watt’ll give people scares, Hopkins’ll get a big chunk of yards, but not much else will happen.

#5 Seed – Kansas City
Strengths: The defense is, again, spectacular (noticing a theme with some of these teams?). Star pass rusher Justin Houston’s had a season disrupted by injury and it still hasn’t stopped them. Tamba Hali and Dontari Poe are the stars of the front seven, Eric Berry challenges Harrison Smith for the best safety in the NFL despite being cancer free for less than six months, and cornerback Marcus Peters will probably win Defensive Rookie of the Year. On offense, Jeremy Maclin has finally given them a star at wide receiver.
Weaknesses: The offensive line is only so-so, which is mitigated somewhat by quarterback Alex Smith being a fan of the short pass, but still is a concern. Smith himself isn’t a deep threat, which limits their passing game. In fact, the Chiefs only rank 27th across the league in yards gained on offense, so they’ll have to win attritional battles to progress.
Will they win it? Do you know what, don’t rule it out. My instinct is to say “no way” because they look a bit anaemic on offense, but delve a bit deeper and you see a solid run game and clock control. Andy Reid and Bob Sutton are a great head coach and defensive coordinator and they’re getting the most from this team. Every team will find them tough to beat, and they’ve just won ten on the trot to get here.

#6 Seed – Pittsburgh
Strengths: Offense. Hoooo boy do they love slinging the ball long. When your three wide receivers are the excellent Antonio Brown, the very good Martavis Bryant, and the also good Markus Wheaton, things look good for you. One interesting stat: they’re 8-for-9 this season on fourth down conversions. 89%. The next best is 67%. What does that mean? Uh…not sure, but this team has been putting on offensive splashes every week, so it’s fun to watch at least.
Weaknesses: That defense looks like it could crack at any minute. The secondary is one brainfart away from giving up a touchdown on any pass, it seems. The pass-rush has been so-so. In fact, the defense ranks 21st in yards per game. The real worry though? They’ve run the best fantastically all season, whether with Le’Veon Bell or DeAngelo Williams. But Bell was lost earlier in the season, and Williams is currently a bit knacked. Third choice Fitzgerald Toussaint came in for the last game of the season and was bobbins. If the run game dies, I think Pittsburgh look distinctly beatable.
Will they win it? I just don’t think the defense is good enough. A well-balanced team with a good pass rush and secondary will limit the Steelers on offense, and if that team also has a good passing attack (as several of those teams do), it’s going to be distinctly peaky for Pittsburgh.

2015: Four Games To Go

Aka “Oo-er, it’s nearly playoff time”.

The Carolina Panthers became the first team to clinch a playoff spot this weekend past, beating New Orleans 41-38 to also win the NFC South and stay unbeaten on the season, with 12 wins and 0 losses. Behind them, it’s still uncertain, so let’s have a look at what we’ve got.

A Bit About Who Gets In The Playoffs

To start with, if you don’t know how the playoffs are decided, here’s who gets in:

• The winners of each ‘division’ (e.g. AFC South, NFC West etc)
• The two teams in each ‘conference’ (AFC, NFC) who have the best record (as in, who has won the most games and played against the teams who have, overall, won the most games too), but didn’t win their division.

The playoffs are split between AFC and NFC – if you’re in the NFC, you won’t play anyone in the AFC until the Super Bowl. Within each split, the six teams are seeded, and here’s how the seeding is decided:

• The winners of each division will be seeded 1 to 4, according to who has the best record for the season.
• The two other teams to qualify – known as ‘wildcards’, are seeded 5 and 6, with the team with the better record of the two being seeded 5.

So then you’ve got six teams, and you’ve got them seeded. In the first round of the playoffs, the 3rd seed will host the 6th seed, and the 4th seed will host the 5th seed. In the next round of playoffs, the 1st seed will host whichever of the two previous winners had the lowest seed, with the 2nd seed hosting the other team. The winners of those two play each other in the conference championship game, with the highest remaining seed hosting the game.

Then, of course, the two conference champions play each other in the Superb Owl. Sorry, Super Bowl. Super Bowl.

So, Who’s Getting There From the NFC This Year?

Well, let’s look at the NFC, because it’s probably the easiest to predict. As stated in the introduction, the Panthers (12-0) are there already, and they’ll be joined soon by the Arizona Cardinals (10-2), who have three wins more than anyone else in the NFC West and will probably win two games out of their last four at least to tie it up. In The NFC North, both the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings have 8-4 records, but the Packers have a significantly easier schedule than the Vikings, so the smart money’s on them to win that division. The NFC East is just dreadful, though. Washington, the Philadelphia Eagles and the New York Giants all have 5-7 records, with the Dallas Cowboys just one win behind. Any of those teams could win it and secure a playoff spot, but I think I’d lean towards New York, because when they’ve played well, they’ve played better than any other team in the division. They’re just heroically inconsistent.

In terms of who gets the wildcard places in the NFC, the first will be whichever out of Green Bay and Minnesota doesn’t win the division, I’d expect. The other will probably be the Seattle Seahawks, who, if the season ended today, would get that spot. They’ve won more games and are playing better football than the next teams in line (Tampa Bay, Atlanta), so they seem a safe bet. My prediction for the seedings in the NFC are fairly straightforward too, though I fancy Seattle to win 3 or 4 of their remaining games and edge past Minnesota:

1. Carolina Panthers
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. Green Bay Packers
4. New York Giants
5. Seattle Seahawks
6. Minnesota Vikings

And What About the AFC?

The AFC’s a bit more interesting than the NFC, though three teams (New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos) are 10-2 and coasting towards the playoffs. In the AFC South, both Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans are 6-6 but both have favourable schedules. It’s too close to call, but Indy have already beaten Houston in Houston, and still get to host them in a couple of weeks, so let’s say they’ll win it.

The wildcard places are more fun. Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs are 7-5 and currently in position to get the places, but Pittsburgh have a couple of very difficult games in the next two weeks, whereas Kansas City’s on sizzling form, their schedule looks friendlier and I think they could easily win 3 or 4 of their last 4 games. The New York Jets are also 7-5, and have a mixed schedule to come, with the week 17 match in Buffalo probably being decisive, as Buffalo Bills aren’t out of it at 6-6, with three games against the NFC East and then the Jets game. So. I’m saying definitely Kansas City, but the last place is a complete guess. Pittsburgh have the recent history of getting to the playoffs, Buffalo have the easiest schedule but need to win more games, and the Jets do have this image of capitulating under pressure. Pittsburgh will probably get it but it seems a boring safe choice, whereas I think Buffalo could well win all four games and squeak it. So, for the actual predictions. Splitting the three teams mentioned first for seeding is tricky, let’s see how this works out:

1. New England Patriots
2. Cincinnati Bengals
3. Denver Broncos
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Buffalo Bills

2015 So Far: NFC and AFC East after Week 3

The third set of divisions we’re going to look at in the “2015 So Far…” series are the NFC and AFC East.

So, the NFC East doesn’t look at that impressive so far this year. The only team with a winning record is the Cowboys (2-1), and they lost their last game having lost quarterback Tony Romo until Week 11 at the earliest, and losing elite wide receiver Dez Bryant possibly for even longer. That said, the offensive line is still fantastic, and Joseph Randle is making a good fist of it. The defense continues to be mostly acceptable, and will improve after Week 4, when Rolando McClain and *shudder* Greg Hardy come back from injury. The Giants (1-2) lead the rest of the pack, and still look as flaky as they ever have for the last few years. Odell Beckham Jr remains incredible, but he’s the only real receiving threat they have, unless you count Shane Vereen catching dump-off passes four yards behind the line of scrimmage. The defense is mostly abysmal, but still they were in strong positions to win the two games they’ve lost, so a winning record isn’t an impossibility. Next up, Washington (1-2), are still the worst team in this division, and don’t look like they’ll win many games. They’ve actually sometimes looked fine this year, and the O-Line coped fairly well against the Rams in their Week 2 win, particularly in the running game, with Matt Jones getting a cool 123 yards and 2 touchdowns. Unfortunately, the execrable Kirk Cousins remains the quarterback, and there’s a lack of ability across this team. The same can’t be said for the Eagles (1-2), who have confounded everyone including, apparently, themselves with their slow start. Sam Bradford has been Bad-ford (sorry), DeMarco Murray has been DeMarco Slurry (I really am sorry) and Chip Kelly has been Chip Smelly. Sorry, don’t know what came over me there. The Eagles seem to be taking a while to get used to personnel changes with newcomers slowly adapting to Chip Kelly’s scheme. The O-Line’s getting there, and Ryan Matthews enjoyed them in their first win, in Week 3. Just…let’s not talk about Murray’s current YPC and season projections…

Over in the AFC East, it’s the glory hunter’s favourites, the Patriots (3-0) who head up the division. They look imperiously good, Tom Brady’s only not in the best form of his career because he’s been in unbelievably blistering form at various points of said career. Rob Gronkowski remains both the best receiving and blocking tight end in the league, the offensive line has stepped up, Jamie Collins and Dont’a Hightower are ridiculously good linebackers. Ah, but Tom Brady said “it would be great” if Donald Trump was the next president. Don’t care if he was joking, have decided he wasn’t, he can do one. The Jets (2-1) have been a pleasant surprise offensively, and their defense has been as good as advertised. As bad as he was in Week 3 (and seriously, did you see that lateral?) Brandon Marshall looks like a great signing for a team otherwise lacking in playmakers. We’ve had two games of good Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, and one of bad, and that’s why the Jets are 2-1. An 8-8 season should be achievable. Also hanging around there are the Bills (2-1), who as predicted look like a slightly deluxe version of the Jets. The difference is, where we thought the Bills would be better at WR and worse at QB, it’s actually the reverse. Both the Colts and the Dolphins made it easy for Tyrod Taylor, but he’s talented enough to punish poor defending and looks super-promising. The Bills will be hoping it lasts, because at WR, Sammy Watkins, Percy Harvin and Robert Woods all flash the ability, but lack consistency. As long as one flashes each game, they should have enough to piggyback off this strong defense. Oh god, the Dolphins (1-2) look appalling though. The poor offensive line play is making Tannehill look nervous, and his throws are skittish. The much-vaunted receiver corps? Well, Jarvis Landry looks good, but Kenny Stills has been a non-factor, Greg Jennings possibly moreso. The best receiver at the moment is Rishard Matthews, hitherto the WR4. Expect to improve gradually as first-round pick DeVante Parker is edged into action, mind. Oh, and Ndamukong Suh? He was very good in Week 3, but he’s not a one-man defensive line. When opposing lines are putting three players on him, and despite the space freed up for other defenders they can’t get to the quarterback? Well, it’s people like Olivier Vernon and Cameron Wake (not to mention the linebackers) who are the disappointments.

2015 Previews: AFC East

This is the AFC East then. I’m fairly sure nothing of note happened in the offseason involving any of these teams, with no-one writing any news stories or think pieces on any of them. No siree.

Miami Dolphins

Last Year: 8-8

Which Way Are They Going: Up. And if not, it’ll probably be the biggest underachievement of the year.

What’s Good: This team may have spent too much money on Ndamukong Suh, but with him alongside a fairly strong cast across the team, they have a surprisingly strong team. Suh is the headline, obviously. His ability to push through the line of scrimmage to get after the quarterback is well known. That he can do the same against the run is why he’s a great – you need your defensive tackles to make a wall in the middle of the defense, and he does that. So you maybe move an extra lineman across to help stop Suh. Oh, but look, there’s Cameron Wake, one of the best edge rushers, rushing into that gap you just created to cover Suh, and he’s gone straight past and crushed the quarterback. This is how the pieces at the front of a defense come together.

What’s Possibly Good But Might Not Be: Ryan Tannehill and his receivers. I’ve got a lot of faith in Ryan Tannehill, who struggled throwing the ball deep last year, but unlike (say) Alex Smith, was masterful at intermediate distances, you know, that get you a first down and more. This year he has Kenny Stills as a good, if a tad flaky, deep threat, Jarvis Landry who is athletic and has good hands in the slot, a wily veteran in Greg Jennings, a first-round pick in DeVante Parker, and an injury prone tight end with bags of ability in Jordan Cameron. The offensive line isn’t great, so Tannehill’s going to be under more pressure, and the underrated running back Lamar Miller may struggle a little, but provided it holds somewhat firm (not a certainty), the offense should do well.

What’s Definitely Not Good: The secondary is a strange mix of elite/near-elite players and some poor performers who should not be starting. For every Brent Grimes, there’s a Brice McCain. Against teams with depth at receiver, teams will just throw towards the receiver McCain’s covering. At safety, they have the very good Reshad Jones, and a lot of players with little experience (with Louis Delmas injured for the season, anyway). It’s to be hoped the pass rush can make up for the secondary’s weakness, but what if Grimes gets injured, or regresses (he’s not young)? The Dolphins will struggle.

Anything Else: I quite like the Dolphins. I think it’s the strange combination of the uniforms (yay! Teal and orange is actually a thing somewhere outside film blogs!) and remembering Ace Ventura. Tannehill seems like a bit of an underdog too, though I’ve no idea whether he is or not. I’m going to say 10-6. No, wait. 10-5-1. There’s always one draw per season, let’s say it’ll be the Dolphins this year.

New England Patriots:

Last Year: 12-4 and a little thing called a Super Bowl win.

Which Way Are They Going: Down. Well, I mean, obviously if they’re not retaining the Super Bowl it counts as down, but yeah, even within that, down.

What’s Good: The Patriots might have one of the most easily dislikeable coaches and general ‘attitudes’ in the NFL (at least to me), but as ever, it’s part of what makes them win things even when there’s weakness in the roster. Expect the same this year. There are obvious weaknesses here, but they’re not going to be terminal. In strengths, Devin McCourty is brilliant at safety, and the linebacker corps is destructive and underrated. In Rob Gronkowski, they have the second most dominant player at his position in the NFL (after JJ Watt at defensive end) at tight end.

What’s Possibly Good But Might Not Be: I’m going to be a bit controversial here and say Tom Brady. Brady was awful through the first four games last year, and was then amazing. We always have to remember that as sportsmen age past their peak, they’re going to weaken. People thought that had happened last year; it didn’t. Maybe it will happen this year? A lesser quarterback than Tom Brady on good form would struggle with the inevitably patchwork receivers (other than Gronk) he has to work with. It’s just we’re never going to know until the season starts how much Brady has declined. (You can say the same for Peyton Manning and Drew Brees, for what it’s worth).

What’s Definitely Not Good: The secondary, specifically the cornerbacks. In preseason, occasionally Devin McCourty’s been moving to cornerback to play. This, if it’s a big trend, seems like madness. You’re taking your best player and moving him to an unfamiliar position, creating a void a the position he just left! That’s how they’re struggling now that especially Darrelle Revis, but also Brandon Browner, left during free agency. Malcolm Butler may have got the Super Bowl winning interception, but he only has one NFL start so far. People laugh at Bradley Fletcher. They’re looking at a seventh-round pick to come in and start at slot corner, which seems…risky, at best.

Anything Else: I hate enduring success in sports teams, it’s one of the things that’s weakened round football’s hold on me. I’m a bitter sod and I don’t care (and nor should you). Unsurprisingly therefore, I hate the Patriots. The Pats will end up at 10-6 this year, but that’ll get them in the playoffs and they only really need a sniff, annoyingly.

Buffalo Bills

Last Year: 9-7? Really? Wow.

Which Way Are They Going: Down.

What’s Good: The defensive front seven. That is a scary group of people right there. Marcell Dareus, Mario Williams and Kyle Williams are sort of the ‘known’ of the three, but there’s people like Nigel Bradham just waiting in the wings to get you if they don’t. It’s no wonder the quarterbacks are struggling to get anywhere in offense-versus-defense practices.

What’s Possibly Good But Might Not Be: Offensive skill players, outside of quarterback. LeSean McCoy (if he’s fit) will be a very good running back, and there’s good depth behind him. The issue will be, if Buffalo can’t establish a passing game, teams will focus more on the run. As for the passing game? Charles Clay is an underrated solid tight end, Sammy Watkins is a receiver on the up with ability and potential. Percy Harvin will reward you for putting the effort into getting him the ball with so many sneaky moves past opposing defences. People like Robert Woods and Chris Hogan add depth, too.

What’s Definitely Not Good: Of course, none of this is going to mean a thing because the Bills are a hot mess at quarterback. Tyrod Taylor, who was a sixth-round pick years ago in Baltimore, has been named the starter. As far as I can tell, this is because while none of the Bills can throw the ball much, Taylor can at least run. EJ Manuel, the first round pick in 2013, is not even good enough to be a backup in the NFL. At one point, while practising with the third team, he missed all his receivers and found…the hospitality tent. Matt Cassel was to be the kind of veteran stop-gap guy, but he got cut. The Bills are kind of stuck with too good of a defense to draft the very best quarterback prospects any year, so they’re stuck without a good enough quarterback to get them deep into the playoffs.

Anything Else: Rex Ryan is one of the most fun coaches, and boy does he love his pronouncements. This season he’ll mostly be pronouncing “7-9”.

New York Jets

Last Year: 4-12

Which Way Are They Going: Up, slightly.

What’s Good: They have Darrelle Revis back at cornerback! He left just to win a Super Bowl (and er, spend some time in…Tampa?) but now he’s back, having got his fill of success. Also, the front three of the defense will destroy some souls. Even potentially without Sheldon Richardson, they have the immensely talented number 6 overall pick Leonard Williams who will seamlessly step in.

What’s Possibly Good But Might Not Be: It’s still a little hard to get too enthusiastic about the Jets, but they’ve got a better set of offensive skill players outside quarterback that I can remember. Eric Decker can finally play as a number 2 receiver, now he has Brandon Marshall across from him. But Marshall is 31 and starting to slow – he didn’t look quite what he had been at the Bears last season. Chris Ivory is good at running back, and there are (probably vain) hopes that Jace Amaro can break out at tight end.

What’s Definitely Not Good: The Jets are sort of a worse version of the Bills in every way. They couldn’t even do quarterback controversy/competition correctly, as Geno Smith got punched out by a backup special teamer, leaving the early season job all Ryan Fitzpatrick’s. Fitzpatrick will look good but forget he’s not Brett Favre at the wrong possible moment and throw a hilarious interception. Bills but worse. The Bills have a great front seven, the Jets just have a great front three. The Bills have a fairly good secondary, the Jets have a medicore one (Revis notwithstanding). The Bills have a very good running back, the Jets’ is only good.

Anything Else: Mike Carlson, who is by far and away the best person in Britain at talking about the NFL, always refers to the Jets as “The Jest”. This isn’t changing, and they’ll go 5-11 (or maybe 6-10, or 5-10-1. Maybe the Dolphins will draw with them!)