2016 Previews: NFC West

The NFC West has been one of the best divisions in pro football these last few years. In 2013, Arizona finished third in the division with a 10-6 record, and the division as a whole went 44-22. There’s not so much depth now, but there are still two potential Super Bowl contenders here.

Arizona Cardinals

2015 record: 13-3, right up there with Carolina in how they were playing…until Carolina took them apart in the NFC Championship, anyway.

What’s To Love? So, so much about this team. Safety/corner hybrid Tyrann Mathieu could’ve been a good shout for Defensive Player of the Year had he stayed healthy. Either way, he’s a groundbreaking player who’s establishing a new position, a new way to play in the secondary and a whole new way to think about the secondary, and coverage in general. Arizona have five wide receivers who’d be starters on some other teams. They had a fantastic defense even before trading for Chandler Jones, who was one of the best in the league last year. Bruce Arians has a fantastic record as a head coach, David Johnson is right up there with Todd Gurley in the best running backs to come through the draft in the last couple of years…I could go on.

What’s Not To Love? There’s just a bit of an “and yet…” with the Cardinals. They were fairly poor in beating Green Bay in the playoffs before losing to Carolina, quarterback Carson Palmer in particular having a big dip in quality. Mathieu is a revelation but has had so many serious injuries at such an early point in his career, how can you rely on him? They have Patrick Peterson at cornerback who is a stud, but beyond him,it’s rookies and unproven special teamers. And outside of Jones and 3-4 end Calais Campbell, the front seven is only “fairly good”. So there are a few things, and if Arizona don’t win the Super Bowl this season, these may well be reasons.

What’ll 2016 Be Like Then? That’s the key, isn’t it? “If Arizona don’t win the Super Bowl”. Arizona might well have the best roster of all the Super Bowl contenders, and deserve to be talked about as having a good chance. Their undoing may end up being stuck in the same division as the near-equally excellent Seahawks. Both are contenders, but whoever has the worse record will have the tougher task to get to the Super Bowl. That said, I think Arizona will go 13-3 and that could give them the #1 seed in the NFC they may need to get there.

Seattle Seahawks

2015 record: 10-6, despite starting 2-4. At no point, then, did Seattle look like a 10-6 team. They started up looking like a 6-10 team, and finished up looking like a 14-2 one.

What’s To Love? So, so much about this team. Russell Wilson might be irritating as a person but he became one of the top few quarterbacks in the NFL last year. Doug Baldwin started looking like a #1 receiver, and Tyler Lockett might be the best one from last year’s draft. Thomas Rawls emerged as a star running back. And that’s not even mentioning the defense! Michael Bennett, Earl Thomas, Richard Sherman, Cliff Avril, Kam Chancellor. Just generally be afraid; be very afraid.

What’s Not To Love? If ever a team was built to cope with a shoddy offensive line, it’s Seattle, with a mobile quarterback and running backs adept at making the best of a bad situation. But make no mistake, Seattle’s line is bad. It says a lot when they lose a semi-liability like J.R. Sweezy in free agency, and somehow get worse. I’m not sure there’s a single starting-calibre player on this line, and way too much is hoped for from first-round draft pick Germain Ifedi.

What’ll 2016 Be Like Then? Well, Seattle will probably continue to bait ProFootballFocus by winning lots of games with an awful offensive line. It may cost them a game or two, and it’ll be a bit of a disaster if it leads to Russell Wilson getting injured, but so far so good. The offense is improving to come close to the defense, but it’ll never match it, and Bennett, Thomas and co will continue to get sacks, interceptions, fumbles and every good defensive stat. I think Seattle to match Arizona with 13-3.

St Louis Los Angeles Rams

2015 record: 7-9. Jeff Fisher coached a team to a 7-9 record. I know, I know.

What’s To Love? Aaron Donald and Todd Gurley, basically. Donald is the best defensive lineman not named JJ Watt, is quicker off the mark than pretty much anyone in the trenches on either side of the ball in the NFL. He will get sacks, pressures, you name it. He’s the main reason teams don’t score many points against the Rams. Conversely, Todd Gurley is probably the only reason the Rams will score points this season. A generational talent at running back, he can create something from nothing, can turn 5 yard gains into 30 yard gains, is decent in the passing game too. The only thing is he doesn’t have much of an offensive line to work with.

What’s Not To Love? This is a singularly unloveable franchise outside of those too. They gave up every draft pick ever basically to get Jared Goff, who is now reported to look like the sum of his flaws, not his talents. He doesn’t have any good wide receivers or tight ends to pass to, even if he does play. The defense looks a notch weaker, as the secondary will feel the loss of Janoris Jenkins, you suspect. This is a team out of time that only looks to have what it takes to compete in the NFL on one side of the ball.

What’ll 2016 Be Like Then? You may have seen the clip from Hard Knocks of Jeff Fisher profanely promising to not go 7-9 again. The good news is, the Rams won’t go 7-9! The bad news is, their first season in Los Angeles will be worse than that. I reckon 5-11 is a fair number to predict, with four wins being down to the defense and one to Todd Gurley. This team has been assembled poorly, and coached worse than that.

San Francisco 49ers

2015 record: 5-11, which was considered to be better than expected. That’s how bad things are in San Francisco.

What’s To Love? Er, DeForest Buckner and Arik Armstead might make some nicely terrifying 3-4 defensive end bookends? Wait, do the 49ers even play 3-4 defense?

What’s Not To Love? This just makes me so sad. Jim Harbaugh might have been a bigger arsehole than the size of the universe in No Man’s Sky (tortured metaphor klaxon sounds), but this team has just been torn apart since midway through that 2014 season. They have a worse situation at quarterback than anyone else – Gabbert and Kaepernick should not be starting in the 2016 NFL. Their only good wide receiver can draw pass interference flags and do little else. The 49ers still haven’t recovered from most of their defense retiring, and with Navarro Bowman not looking back to his old self last season, there’s still some way to go. I honestly cannot find a silver lining for this team. At least Cleveland seem to have a rebuilding plan in place.

What’ll 2016 Be Like Then? If Cleveland don’t ‘win’ the first overall pick next year, don’t be surprised if San Francisco do. I look at this roster and I just can’t see how they’re going to win any games. There is just no talent here. Unless Chip Kelly somehow morphs into a good NFL coach (unlike, say, what he was in Philadelphia last year), the 49ers will be lucky to go 3-13.

Draft Tipper: NFC and AFC West

The West divisions had the Super Bowl winners, arguably the best team not to make the Super Bowl last year, and two other teams that won a playoff game. They also, thanks to a somewhat lopsided trade, have the team picking first overall.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

They pick: 29th overall
They need: 3-4 Defensive End, Center, Offensive Tackle, 3-4 Inside Linebacker

Who might they go for in the first round? Robert Nkemdiche would be a very Arizona pick here, and Jarran Reed may still be on the board at defensive end. At center, Ryan Kelly may be available, as may an offensive tackle like Taylor Decker and Germain Ifedi. This may not be the perfect spot for a linebacker either. Don’t be surprised if Arizona take a best player available here, as they have a fairly well-stacked roster at the moment.

In the second round? Austin Johnson, Jonathan Bullard, Adolphus Washington and Jihad Ward are possible options at defensive end, and Nick Martin is an option at center. Arizona need a right tackle, so Le’Raven Clark and Shon Coleman are possible options. At linebacker, Scooby Wright, Su’a Cravens and Beniquez Brown are options, and this is another team that could get the idea to draft Jaylon Smith while he recovers from injury.

Los Angeles Rams

They pick: 1st overall (no 2nd round pick)
They need: Quarterback, Wide Receiver, Tight End, Center

Who might they go for in the first round? They’re going to be picking either Carson Wentz or Jared Goff. Why else would you give up two first-round picks, two second-round picks and two third-round picks? It is lucky that the three biggest positions of need for LA are either traditional mid-or-late-round targets (tight end and center) or a position well-known for producing late-round gems (wide receiver).

San Francisco 49ers

They pick: 7th overall
They need: Quarterback, Wide Receiver, 3-4 Outside Linebacker, 3-4 Inside Linebacker

Who might they go for in the first round? In truth San Francisco have way more needs than that, but let’s keep it simple. We can be fairly certain now that Carson Wentz and Jared Goff will go in the first two overall picks, so the only possible quarterback for San Francisco is Paxton Lynch. There aren’t any highly-rated wide receivers you’d pick here. If Joey Bosa slips to this pick, he’d be a good pick here, as would Myles Jack. Really though, San Francisco could pick almost any position and it wouldn’t be a bad pick, so wide-ranging are their needs.

In the second round? Connor Cook may still be on the board at quarterback here. There should be plenty of wide receivers too – a slot weapon or generic big target would be the logical pick, so Corey Coleman, Michael Thomas and Tyler Boyd would all make sense. A pass-rushing linebacker like Kamalei Correa or Yannick Ngakoue would be a decent option, as may Noah Spence and Shilique Calhoun. At inside linebacker, look at Scooby Wright and Beniquez Brown.

Seattle Seahawks

They pick: 26th overall
They need: Offensive Tackle, Offensive Guard, Center, 4-3 Linebacker

Who might they go for in the first round? This is a pointless exercise with Seattle even moreso than other teams. Seattle go their own way, do weird things that baffle everyone, and they generally work out. So I can say “Seattle need to stop dicking around and sort out their offensive line” and they will devote all their picks to defense and flick V’s at me while they’re at it. Nonetheless, if they want to sort out their O-Line, then Taylor Decker, Germain Ifedi, Jason Spriggs, Cody Whitehair and Ryan Kelly slot in at various points along the line. I refuse to consider a linebacker because SORT THAT GOD DAMN OFFENSIVE LINE OUT GUYS SERIOUSLY.

In the second round? Plenty of ‘projects’ here. Le’Raven Clark and Shon Coleman are good bets at tackle. Joshua Garnett and Vadal Alexander are options at guard. Nick Martin would fill the hole at center left when Max Unger was traded. This is decent range for a 4-3 linebacker, however, so Deion Jones, Kyler Fackrell and even Scooby Wright are options here.
AFC West

Denver Broncos

They pick: 31st overall
They need: Quarterback, Offensive Guard, 3-4 Defensive End, 3-4 Inside Linebacker

Who might they go for in the first round? It’s so weird that the Super Bowl winners need a quarterback, but here we are. Connor Cook is a prime candidate for a draft day slide and may well be available here if Denver want him. I’d say it’s a bit rich for Cody Whitehair at guard, though like Seattle, Denver have a strong need here. A tackle like Germain Ifedi may be a candidate to be converted to guard in the short term, at least. At defensive end, Robert Nkemdiche has potential but also non-specific ‘personality issues’ so may be available here. Austin Johnson, Jonathan Bullard and Chris Jones may be options, too. There isn’t really a linebacker in range here unless Reggie Ragland slides. It’s a bit of a quandary for Denver, all told.

In the second round? A quarterback ‘project’ like Cardale Jones, Dak Prescott or Christian Hackenberg is a possible pick here, though none of those are anywhere near ready to start immediately. At guard, Cody Whitehair and Joshua Garnett are options, as well as a tackle to be converted like Le’Raven Clark. At defensive end, Adolphus Washington, Jihad Ward and Bronson Kaufusi are options. At linebacker, look out for Beniquez Brown and Scooby Wright.

Kansas City Chiefs

They pick: 28th overall
They need: Wide receiver, 3-4 Defensive End, 3-4 Inside Linebacker, Safety

Who might they go for in the first round? There’ll likely be a wide receiver to put alongside Jeremy Maclin around, like Corey Coleman, Will Fuller or Michael Thomas. Big defensive ends like Chris Jones and Jonathan Bullard are options. At inside linebacker, they’ll have to hope Reggie Ragland slides if they want him. Kansas City will have their pick of safeties to replace Hussain Abdullah – Karl Joseph, Vonn Bell and Keanu Neal may all be on the board.

In the second round? Wide receivers at the back end of the second round may include Sterling Shepard and Pharoh Cooper, both of whom look like nifty slot receivers. I don’t think they’ll go for Braxton Miller, mind you. See the Denver entry for defensive ends (Washington, Ward, Kaufusi) and linebacker (Brown, Wright), though also keep an eye out for Jaylon Smith, but safeties like Su’a Cravens, TJ Green and Darian Thompson may be under consideration.

Oakland Raiders

They pick: 14th overall
They need: Defensive Tackle, Defensive End, Inside Linebacker, Safety

Who might they go for in the first round? Oakland have built well over the last few years, and aren’t so hamstrung by their needs as to have to pass up on better talents. There are a heck of a lot of good defensive tackles around though, so if Oakland want a Sheldon Rankins or A’Shawn Robinson, they should fill their boots. I’ve put defensive end as a need, so Shaq Lawson and Emmanuel Ogbah are in play, but if Bruce Irvin is going to play there full-time (as opposed to at linebacker) that’s less of a need. Linebacker remains a need though, so keep an eye out for Reggie Ragland. I wonder if Oakland might not pick somewhere that’s as much of a need in this first round though – keep an eye out for Ezekiel Elliott to go to Oakland if he’s still on the board.

In the second round? There are tons of defensive tackles, like Vernon Butler, Andrew Billings, Kenny Clark, Adolphus Washington, I could go on. Plenty of defensive ends, too: Noah Spence, Kevin Dodd, Shilique Calhoun, Carl Nassib. Linebackers? Again, Beniquez Brown and Scooby Wright are the realistic choices, though safety may end up being a better option if one of Keanu Neal, Vonn Bell or Karl Joseph is still on the board.

San Diego Chargers

They pick: 3rd overall
They need: Offensive tackle, 3-4 Defensive End, 3-4 Outside Linebacker, Safety

Who might they go for in the first round? The best player in the draft. If they think that’s Laremy Tunsil (tackle), Jalen Ramsey (safety), DeForest Buckner (end) or Joey Bosa (would probably play outside linebacker), all would fit. I think Tunsil and Ramsey are the most likely, but there’s no denying the two teams trading up for quarterbacks has worked out utterly perfectly for San Diego.

In the second round? As well as a tackle like Germain Ifedi or Jason Spriggs, 3-4 ends like Austin Johnson, Jonathan Bullard and co will be around, as will some pass-rushers like Kamalei Correa and Noah Spence. Most of the top safeties (Neal, Bell, Joseph) will still be available too. But, even though their record was terrible last year, I can see San Diego filling a position of slightly lesser need with one of the best players still available.

Conference Round Catchup

Well, that’s it. No more Sunday matches on at reasonable times, and only one more match to go (and the Pro Bowl, but meh). It’s been a good season; though one super tight and one super one-sided match each feels a fitting way to lead into the Super Bowl.

New England 18, Denver 20

Wow, this match was a corker. It wasn’t, perhaps, the sort of whizz-bang entertainment you’d want to try and use to persuade a newcomer to get into the NFL, but it was a thriller nonetheless. Denver’s defense is an absolute terror, and they’re the reason Denver won. It was a complete performance – on the line, Derek Wolfe and Malik Jackson were tearing through New England’s interior early, which made Tom Brady more skittish than usual. That set it up for Von Miller and Demarcus Ware to get more one-on-ones and pressure around the outside, which left chaos to ensue. The secondary played its part, as Bradley Roby and Chris Harris kept Julian Edelman mostly quiet.

Miller was an absolute terror, with 2.5 sacks, an interception, tackles for loss, you name it. He’s started his career exactly how you’d want a future Hall of Famer to start one (60 sacks in 4 and a half seasons stands out), and on Sunday he was downright unblockable. Brady was hit 19 times in total, as the so-so offensive line chose exactly the wrong game to look sluggish in.

Denver started surprisingly well on offense, driving downfield for a touchdown on their first possession, then turning Miller’s interception into a second (both TD passes going to tight end Owen Daniels), and getting a field goal before half time. New England also got a touchdown and a field goal in that first half, though missed the extra point. The second half was even more attritional, New England and then Denver adding a field goal before defences took over. Brady was able to use injuries to Denver’s two starting safeties to drive downfield, but two fourth-down stops in the red zone meant that New England needed a touchdown and two-point conversion right at the death to force overtime. They got the TD (on fourth down, no less!), but the two-pointer was stopped, and Denver won.

Denver are an interesting proposition in the Super Bowl. They tore through a middling offensive line and half a fantastic secondary, but scored just six points in the last 43 minutes of action. New England’s defense is good, but not that good.

Arizona 15, Carolina 49

Unlike the earlier match, this wasn’t a corker. Well, it wasn’t dramatic, but for a clinic of how to dominate in all elements of the game, watch Carolina. Cam Newton’s two rushing and passing touchdowns will garner deserving headlines, because he’s downright unstoppable. He got 100 yard receiving games out of Greg Olsen (not that hard to do) and Corey Brown (very hard to do), though Browns was because of an 86-yard TD where he broke free of the Arizona D. Ted Ginn crossed the field twice when turning a reverse into a 22-yard TD, and Jonathan Stewart kept the ground game a threat.

And that was just the offense! The defense intercepted Carson Palmer a cool four times (Kurt Coleman ballhawking another two – he has nine on the season), with Luke Kuechly returning his for a TD. Kawaan Short and Charles Johnson forced fumbles. No wide receiver or tight end had 40 yards receiving. The only concern Carolina may have defensively was that excellent running back David Johnson caught nine passes for 68 yards, ran 15 times for 60 yards and a touchdown, and looked like a real threat.

Carolina started this game fast again, but didn’t let up in the second half as they did against Seattle last week. 17-0 became 24-7, became 34-15, and finally 49-15, with even a cheeky late two-point conversion when one really wasn’t necessary.

This team are lots of fun to watch, and even though they’ll go into Super Bowl as favourites, they still have this upstart personality. The defense might be a smidgen less terrifying than Denver’s, but they create turnovers like there’s no tomorrow, and while the run and pass game are humming, with plenty of flashy plays as a bonus, they’re going to be great to watch in Santa Clara.

Conference Previews by Roughing the Passer

Roughing the Passer is back! For his last set of previews of the season (we’ll do something a bit bigger than just him talking crap for the Super Bowl in a fortnight’s team), and he’s left the greatest treat for laughing at him for the last one. I met RtP in the pub last weekend to watch Chiefs-Pats, and got an email regarding his timing prior to arrival. What did the email say? “Hey, will be a bit late thanks to a slightly ramshackle wassail”.  He was late because he went wassailing. Enjoy the conference championships, everyone!

New England at Denver – Sunday ‘evening’

Two more games. Just two more games. A couple of hours. 120 minutes of football. Really, when you think about it, only 7,200 brief seconds, each one slipping by as the digital clock flashes, inexorably, down to zero. And then? And then what? What of Peyton Manning and his record-breaking career? How will leave behind the sport that he grew up with, helped to shape, and ultimately made his own? If he can rustle up two more games – tie up his laces, shuffle on every piece of body armour, squeeze his red and sweaty forehead into his helmet a few more times – he could limp away as a hero, the man who pushed and pushed beyond the point where his body was broken and somehow, incredibly, made it all the way. A second Super Bowl, one to match his younger, luckier, brother, one that would silence the doubters that said for all his numbers, for all his touchdowns and passing yards and his ability to read the defence and manipulate the line of scrimmage like a conductor in a symphony hall, for all of that, he couldn’t ever quite win enough. That he couldn’t do it in the cold. Couldn’t get it together in January. Couldn’t make it really count. Peyton Manning is a sure-fire hall of famer who is famous for losing. But if he can play just two more games of football, he can make it right.

(Of course, he could also end up being shipped to the Texans next year and pissing everybody off.)

I believe. I said earlier this season, when Manning was watching from the sidelines with his foot in a protective boot after a painful on-field display, that this was what the narrative needed. Before every triumphant ending, there needed to be despondency, despair, desolation, and this was his. Watch his career seemingly end as a flaming wreck, tires flying off into the abyss (Ed – tires…flying off…into the abyss?), only to somehow right the wagon, get it back on the track, and wheel it towards glory, before riding off into the sunset forever.

I’m still rooting for this. The fierce defence that has underpinned Denver’s success all season long is still here, and could still make it possible. If the running game can get its act together, and Peyton’s receivers can catch even half of the balls that are tossed their way (I know some of the throws have been ugly, but they haven’t been THAT bad), then they could still have a fighting chance.

Sadly, the Patriots are as inevitable as a winter cold. Like rusty bum wee after a Friday night curry, they’ll turn up and make you wince. With Edelman, Gronk, and Amendola, it’s an offence that can be lethal without even bothering to pick a starting RB, and with Belichick and Brady at the helm (seeing them together always reminds me of Yoda on the Sith: “Always two there are; no more, no less. A master and an apprentice.”) expect the crushing, grinding efficiency to continue.

I want Manning to win this. But I don’t think he will.

Arizona at Carolina – Sunday ‘night’

It’s a shame that the NFL is structured in such a way that sometimes, we don’t really get to see the matches we want to see. Just as a good team can be trapped in a strong division and miss a playoff spot in favour of the best team in a shitty division, so can the essential AFC/NFC split mean that sometimes, the talent is all pooled in one side. The Cardinals and the Panthers are two of the best teams in the league, if we’re being honest, they’re the best teams, but one of the them is going to miss out on the Super Bowl thanks to the whims of a schedule cooked up decades ago.

I like both of these teams, and I think anyone who isn’t clutching their pearls and worrying about the children does as well – Arizona’s depth is full of mature players who deserve a ring, and an offence happy to take great, drunken shots down the field. Meanwhile the Panthers are just fun, with a charismatic quarterback, an offence that keeps driving and making exciting things happen, and a defence that gives up nothing (if we ignore the last 30 minutes of the Seahawks game. What exactly were they up to there?).

I guess if the Panthers spend enough time and effort on watering their pitch, they could just get it into an bad enough condition for the Cardinals (who are used to playing on the surface of Mars) to feel totally out of their comfort zone. Perhaps that’s been their tactic the whole time. Combine an easy schedule with a death-trap playing surface, and watch the magic happen.

Ultimately, this is probably the game that, in a fairer universe, the Super Bowl would have been. But I guess we can just enjoy it now. I think it will be close. But I think the swagger of the Panthers might just give them the edge.

Divisional Round Catchup

First up, apologies for the lack of a wild card round up last week. Sadly, real life caught up. It happens. Anyway, the Divisional games were impressively bonkers, all finished with the losers one score behind the winners, so were tight and exciting. Tighting.

Kansas City 20, New England 27
The one team regarding whom I will be shamelessly partisan when they’re playing are New England. I always want them to lose. There’s just something about Bellichick that puts me in mind of Jose Mourinho – the person who more than most turned me from a round football fan into someone who couldn’t give two hoots. So, Saturday evening mostly consisted of me muttering “well this is depressing” to poor Roughing the Passer, who managed to retain his optimism.

The game was never as close as the scoreline suggested. New England jumped out to an early lead thanks to Gronk, and Chiefs spent the first half answering touchdowns with field goals. One difference here was the offenses – Alex Smith does a great deal of dink and dunk, we all know, but Tom Brady doesn’t run the Pats offense that differently, with the amount of quick passes he throws. The difference? Well, other than the quality of receivers, where Smith’s passes are caught at around the line of scrimmage, Brady’s are caught six or seven yards further downfield. It’s this weird mix of conservatism and aggression that really neutralises opposing defences, and seems so well suited to an aging Brady whose arm is only going to get weaker (albeit, no-one knows how much it will). Also, Brady is a half-plausible deep threat. Defenses did well, but the Chiefs really missed Justin Houston, as they just couldn’t get to Tom Brady behind that healthy-again O-Line.

Green Bay 20, Arizona 26
This game was decided in overtime, with Arizona possessing the ball first, and scoring a touchdown, ending the game. There’s been a bit of griping about this since, and to be fair I understand the gripes. It would make more sense to give both teams a chance to possess the ball no matter what happens. It just seems fairer that way, not to mention less anti-climactic for the team who never gets a go.

This was a fun game, one of those where there were piles of yards on offense despite nothing quite clicking for either team. An uncharacteristically inconsistent Carson Palmer still threw for 349 yards, of which 176 went to Larry Fitzgerald. A still slightly off-colour Aaron Rodgers threw for 261, of which 145 went to Jeff Janis (who managed a stats-breaking 101 receiving yards on the last drive before overtime. Yep, 101 yards.) Both teams defended well, especially against the run (one Eddie Lacy 61-yard run aside), and this was a fun back-and-forth battle. The Cards got an early touchdown but went 13-7 down, before a field goal, a seven-minute-sapping drive and another field goal put them 20-13 up, at which point Rodgers found Janis twice, overtime happened, then one 75 yard and one 5 yard pass from Palmer to Fitzgerald closed the game up, and sent Arizona into the NFC Championship.

Seattle 24, Carolina 31
Carolina are making a bit of a habit of this, aren’t they? I thought their ability to give fans the willies in the second half had reached its nadir during the Giants game, but this might have been worse. Teams with 31 point leads should probably not be giving opponents a sniff at coming back into games, but it did at least leave us with an entertainingly weird looking quarter-by-quarter score.

So anyway, Carolina were 14 points up within 3:14, as Jonathan Stewart followed an impeccably-blocked 59 yard run (buy Michael Oher and Andrew Norwell a drink, Jonathan) with a 4-yard TD run, and Luke Kuechly pick-six’d Russell Wilson. Carolina got another Stewart rushing TD, another interception, this time followed by Newton-to-Olsen for the TD, and a Gano field goal made it 31-0 at the half. Then, everything unravelled. Coverage schemes inched towards the dreaded “prevent”, which no-one should be doing on the first drive of the second half, Doug Baldwin and Jermaine Kearse woke up, but most importantly, so did Russell Wilson. Carolina’s defense managed to get just enough of a foothold in quarter four to slow the Seahawks down, and the offense got just enough first downs to run the clock down, but Carolina only won this game because they made Seattle run out of time. Carolina just have to sort out this second half malaise they have if they’re to win the two games they need to turn that league-best record into a Super Bowl win.

Pittsburgh 16, Denver 23
I’m not entirely sure how Pittsburgh lost this game. They seemed to be the much more effective team, passing the ball well, and running the ball functionally, if not amazingly. The defense seemed relatively stout, albeit with the occasional lapse against the run. Denver looked bad, but they got far enough downfield to kick five field goals and eventually get a touchdown, so there you go.

It’s hard to watch this game and think Peyton Manning’s still completely up to the task. He didn’t throw a pick, but his passes don’t fizz any more, and they’re not always on target. He’ll be grateful to still have Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas, but this Denver O misses a reliable and dynamic tight end, which Owen Daniels definitely isn’t. The defense didn’t look to be playing its best game, but it stiffened when it mattered, recording three sacks and forcing a Fitzgerald Toussaint fumble that proved to be a turning point. Up until then, Pittsburgh looked the better team, with Martavis Bryant going over 150 yards, and Sammie Coates and Darrius Hayward-Bey both providing threatening WR3 options. But it all changed on the fumble, as momentum shifted to Denver, and they took seven fourth-quarter minutes off the clock as Ronnie Hillman got them to the red zone, then CJ Anderson plunged over to give them a lead that the defense held firm enough, with the help of a recovered onside kick, to hold on to.

Divisional Previews by Roughing the Passer

So, here we are at the Divisional round. After this weekend, just two more Sunday nights of football, and then seven months off. So enjoy Roughing the Passer’s previews while you still can. Now, many of us did embarrassing things when we were younger. Many of us for a time fancied ourselves as ‘artists’, and started painting, or writing poetry, or formed a band. It’s not uniformly terrible, but it often had, looking back, cringeworthy intentions. What I’m trying to say is however bad your old band’s name was, Roughing the Passer was briefly in a band called “Classical Texts in Translation”. Enjoy the weekend football, y’all!

Kansas City at New England – Saturday ‘evening’

To paraphrase the late, great Elton John: SATURDAY! SAT-UR-DAY! SAAAAAT-UR-DAY! Saturday night’s alright for showing professional football! No, but really. It’s great. Especially speaking as an NFL fan in the UK. Usually we have to wait until Sunday evening for the joys of football to come into our lives, but playoff season means that the entire weekend is full of the joys of football. They can’t do it all season long because Saturday is reserved for the glitz, glamour and unpaid labour of college football. so make the most of it while it’s here… soon, football will be gone for good (well, until September. I don’t mean it’s actually disappearing. Concussion didn’t exactly do that well at the box office. Enjoy your Oscar nomination, Will! Oh, wait…)

We open the weekend with the unbeatable (apparently) Chiefs making their way to New England, where a raft of injury concerns mean they’re vulnerable in a way they haven’t been for a long time. The Patriots like to preach this whole “Patriot Way” bullshit, where it’s all about doing your job and getting on with the game in hand, but Christ, there isn’t another team out there who revels in its gossip magazine presence. These idiots basically stagger around smelling their own farts. Even in this bye week, a year removed from Deflategate and all the rest of it, they’ve managed to have one player rock up as a babbling mess outside a police station, while their coach, the angry principal from every high school film ever, is sporting a black eye, and refuses to talk about it. Very suspicious. Meanwhile, Tom Brady has shown up in weirdo-hipster online journal thing True Ink, making pancakes. WTF? Just shut up guys. Go and play football.

Everything sort of looks like it should go the Chiefs’ way, which it means it won’t. Edelman and Gronk will go off on one, and the Pats’ defence will shut down an offence that has been consistent, but underwhelming (who have they really beat on this streak?). And everyone will be miserable.

Green Bay at Arizona – Saturday ‘night’

In terms of disappointing games to watch, the worst are just straight blowouts. To watch a team rack up 30+ points in the first half, while the other stands around scratching their helmets (“Hey, guys, are we taking the ball that way?”) feels like a pointless exercise, especially if you’re sacrificing valuable hours of sleep before a Monday in the office to do so (THANKS, SUPERBOWL XLVIII). So the last time these two teams played, it was sort of disappointing from a neutral point of view. Aaron Rodgers got his arms torn off by the Cardinal’s pass-rush, the Arizona defence scored more than most team’s offences – the whole thing was a mess.

Speaking as a Lions fan forced to suffer in the same division as Green Bay, I thought it was FANTASTIC. And best of all, there’s no reason to expect it not to happen again. Yes. the Cards looked a bit rough against the Seahawks. True, the Packers managed to deal with Washington handily. But the Cardinals are NOT Washington. We’re done here. Not your year, Green Bay. Take your fucking Hail Marys and fuck off back to the frozen north, then come back to haunt me in the autumn.

Seattle at Carolina – Sunday ‘afternoon’

I’m so glad this is early game, because this should be a real humdinger. The Panthers have the better record, but the Seahawks are on a hot streak (aside from the very very cold situation they were in last week), in fact, this is just about as even as it gets. Two running quarterbacks who have learnt how to throw from the pocket to devastating effect; two stingy defences who can knock you around and create takeaways; two receiving cores which lack star power but can get the job done.

I honestly don’t know who will win this. It’s a coin flip. But I know who I want to win. While I’m all for watching talent at its best and seeing dynasties bestriding the ages like a colossus, I also want to see Russell Wilson have his arse handed to him, like how Cam Newton hands his touchdown balls to kids in the stands. Do it for me, Cam! *Swoons*

Pittsburgh at Denver – Sunday ‘evening’

This should have been another great game, and to be honest none of the games this weekend are bad. But thanks to the self-destructive tendencies of AFC North teams (Hard nosed! Gritty! Kind of stupid!), the Steelers are a shell of themselves, with no Antonio “I’d like to thank the Academy” Brown, and Big Bad Ben likely to play with a mangled shoulder, if he plays at all. That doesn’t mean this is over though, since the Broncos are similarly under-powered, especially with Peyton back under centre. But that’s where the spirit of this game resides. Is he capable of playing a whole game? Can the defence hold stout and give him the opportunity to win? Will anyone be watching out for Brock Osweiler in the stands, holding a high-powered assault rifle with telescopic sight, ready to claim the starting job for good?

I’m totally partisan here. I love Peyton and his ridiculous, (Long Snapper laywers – Snip!) head, and I want to see him ride out into the sunset in a blaze of glory with a final Superbowl trophy (won’t happen). The Steelers are kind of grimy, and while they’d usually be able to overpower the opposition, the number the Bengals did on them with their self-destruction means they’re lopsided and flawed. This is the Broncos’ game to lose, and I don’t think they will.

2015 Playoffs: Team by Team

Twelve teams have made the playoffs then, and only one can triumph. Who’ll that be? Well, we don’t know, and frankly our predictions are probably going to be way off. BUT let’s predict anyway, because it’s fun and interesting to write and read.

NFC Playoff Teams

#1 Seed – Carolina
Strengths: Multiple. Cam Newton’s an incredible quarterback, possessed with a rocket arm, rushing ability, big-play ability, you name it. Despite having a relatively low accuracy percentage (in part brought about by throwing more deep passes, and having no receivers who can catch), he’s been careful enough with the football, and has accounted for 45 touchdowns this season. The defense are monsters – Kawaan Short is one of the best interior linemen in the league, Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis are an intelligent, instinctive and brutish linebacker duo, and Josh Norman is a shutdown corner (most of the time)
Weaknesses: There are a few spots lacking in depth around the roster. Who’ll play corner opposite Josh Norman is still up in the air. As good as they are on the defensive interior (linemen and linebackers), the outside pass-rush is only so-so. And their run game may suffer without Jonathan Stewart, who’s injury-prone and injured.
Will they win it? They’re a pretty good shout to. I mean, they’ve only lost once all year, they’re accomplished in all areas of the game. It’ll take a very specific gameplan while manages to isolate their few weaknesses to beat them (but then, doesn’t that always?).

#2 Seed – Arizona
Strengths: Again, multiple. Carson Palmer is enjoying a career-best year having only just turned 36. He has a resurgent Larry Fitzgerald to throw to, as well as two other great starters in Michael Floyd and John Brown, and a bevvy of other good contributors. The run game has been great whichever Johnson has started (Chris and David). Only one team (Carolina) has scored more points this season. Their defense is strong, and Dwight Freeney spins his way to sack after sack after sack. They’re so versatile too – before his injury, Tyrann Mathieu played a cornerback-safety hybrid role that teams just couldn’t deal with. Deone Bucannon is part linebacker, part strong safety.
Weaknesses: There didn’t look like any, but they got absolutely destroyed by Seattle in the last week of the season. Don’t forget they were playing for the number 1 seed, so it’s not like they could afford to take the week off. The offensive line is great in the run game but you worry about it in pass protection. And those injuries are starting to mount up.
Will they win it? I was all ready to say “yes” loudly here before the Seattle game. One game shouldn’t mean a huge amount. It’s just that Arizona’ll have to beat Seattle to get to the Super Bowl in the first place. And if not Seattle, then another team who are strong in similar areas: Carolina.

#3 Seed – Minnesota
Strengths: I love watching this defense so much. They get so much penetration through the middle with Linval Joseph, are terrifying on the outside with Everson Griffen, Danielle Hunter and Brian Robison racking up the sacks. Then they have Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr waiting in the wings behind the line. Oh, and just the small matter of Harrison Smith, who might be the league’s best safety, sitting behind them. Add in to that the league’s leading rusher, Adrian Peterson, and you see why they made the playoffs.
Weaknesses: Outside of Peterson, the offense does look a bit dicky. The line has done surprisingly well but struggles in pass protection. Teddy Bridgewater hasn’t kicked on this year, and though he doesn’t cost Minnesota games, he’s not going to win many on his own. Of course, without any top receivers, he’s limited in his development, but either way the offense needs the defense to keep them ahead in games.
Will they win it? No, sorry. They play Seattle first up, who are as good on defense but more threatening on offense. The only hope is that their defense will destroy Seattle’s weak offensive line, but it’s not as if Seattle won’t do the same back in return. Minnesota are young and will improve, but they’re too one-dimensional on offense right now.

#4 Seed – Washington
Strengths: The reasoning side of my brain is trying to stop me writing “Kirk Cousins” here, because that doesn’t make sense. But Cousins has been great the second half of the season. But why is that? Well, the offensive line has seriously kicked on. DeSean Jackson came back from injury and having him as a deep threat keeps defences on their toes. Ryan Kerrigan is also playing fantastically, rushing from the edge.
Weaknesses: There’s a lot of just okay players in this team. The secondary in particular is struggling – Will Blackmon (cut by the Seahawks preseason) has appeared too much, and they’ve just signed Cary Williams (cut by the Seahawks midseason) to provide depth. While the rush linebackers are fine, the defensive line also is a bit something and nothing, even with Terrance “Pot Roast” Knighton.
Will they win it? No, but they might win a game (or two) and surprise people. They haven’t beaten a single team with a winning record this year, and have only played two playoff bound teams (Carolina and New England), games they lost by a combined score of 71-26.

#5 Seed – Green Bay
Strengths: The defense, oddly. Mike Daniels has been brutal enough up front to go from “decent starter” to getting a big tasty new contract. Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers are still stars at linebacker, Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix is ever improving at safety, and Sam Shields is a good head cornerback. They also have a guy called Aaron Rodgers at quarterback, who might be the best quarterback in the league (even if he hasn’t always played like it this year).
Weaknesses: The offense has been bizarrely bereft this year. Losing a receiver as good as Jordy Nelson to a preseason injury is going to hurt any team, but we all thought Randall Cobb and Davante Adams would step up. Cobb partly has, Adams definitely hasn’t. These last two years, Eddie Lacy looked to have given Green Bay a solid run game, yet this year he just hasn’t cut it often enough, struggling with weight and injury.
Will they win it? I don’t think so. Aaron Rodgers always gives them a chance, and they’re coached fantastically. But there are some teams against whom good coaching and planning just can’t overcome the performance gap, and that’ll be Green Bay’s downfall.

#6 Seed – Seattle
Strengths: We all know about the defense. About how Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril are terrifying up front, about how Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor are fantastic in the back end. But in addition to all these, check out KJ Wright at linebacker, who’s stout against the run and the pass. Russell Wilson has been fantastic in the second half of the season, as has Doug Baldwin. Marshawn Lynch should be back for the playoffs, but even if he isn’t, and even with Thomas Rawls also out for the season, Christine Michael has finally looked like the runner the world thought he was since entering the lineup these last few weeks.
Weaknesses: Sweet lord, the offensive line. For the first half of the season, it legitimately looked like they were trying to get Russell Wilson killed. Maybe he scammed them into buying some of his Fake Bullshit Water, or something. Also, outside of Doug Baldwin, the receivers are the sort of players who need Russell Wilson to do most of the work in them getting the ball. Jermaine Kearse, Luke Willson and co are okay, but okay’s not that good in the playoffs.
Will they win it? They certainly could. Russell Wilson’s the best quarterback you can have if your offensive line’s bad, and this is a team that can match up well against anyone on its day. If they’re to win it, I think it’ll be because the run defense makes opponents too one-dimensional and easier to defend.

AFC Playoff Teams:

#1 Seed – Denver
Strengths: Denver have the best defense in the NFL and it isn’t even close. At cornerback, Chris Harris and Aqib Talib are both going to the pro bowl, and Bradley Roby’s a good third cornerback. At safety, TJ Ward is probably the most underrated player on this team. At linebacker, Von Miller. Holy shit, Von Miller is terrifyingly good. DeMarcus Ware hasn’t been at his best this season but that’s a terrifying pass rush. And then they have Brandon Marshall (no, not that one) and Danny Trevathan at inside linebacker, which is also pretty terrifying. Wow.
Weaknesses: How can you be a number 1 seed and not know who your starting quarterback is. Peyton Manning has been rebuilt but all the parts aren’t quite performing at maximum efficiency. Brock Osweiler is as so-so as his name is bizarre. At least the running game’s coming good, because although those two receivers (Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders) are strengths, they’ve had a few cases of the dropsies lately.
Will they win it? Teams with a middling offense generally need an all-world defense to triumph, and Denver certainly have one of those. They’ve won several low-scoring contests, and have overtime wins against New England and Cincinnati already, plus a more comfortable one over Green Bay. Also, the running game has started to click these last few weeks, which is a tad portentous for other teams.

#2 Seed – New England
Strengths: Tom Brady, who when he’s not squirming about Donald Trump, finds the time to run an efficient offense, broken up with passes to their other strength, Rob Gronkowski. Actually, it’s a bit unfair on the well-run defense to lead with Brady. Chandler Jones and Jamie Collins are the sort of players you don’t notice who win you games just by shutting down options for the opposition. Collins can tackle, cover, do anything really. But there’s quality across the defense: no team would sniff at Rob Ninkovich, Dont’a Hightower, Devin McCourty, Patrick Chung.
Weaknesses: WOW that’s a lot of players on injured reserve. Notably, their best tackle Nate Solder is on injured reserve, right tackle Sebastian Vollmer is in-again-out-again, their backup LaAdrian Waddle, cut by the O-line-poor Lions, isn’t fully fit, nor is starting guard Josh Kline. Oh, and Brady got a high ankle sprain in the week. Their run game’s been poor since Dion Lewis went on season-ending injured reserve too.
Will they win it? While my shamelessly biased side says “I hope not”, they are the Patriots and so they can always win it. A hobbled Tom Brady is still a threat to anyone, Bill Bellichick is still an excellent head coach, albeit one with a Mourinho-sized dark side (or maybe “because he’s” rather than “albeit”, and that defense is going to be tricky for anyone to unpick.

#3 Seed – Cincinnati
Strengths: This is a well-run, deep team with balance across the roster, high calibre head coach and coordinators, and a sweet uniform whenever they turn out in orange. AJ Green and Tyler Eifert are top drawer wide receiver and tight end prototypes. Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard are the best running back one-two punch around. Geno Atkins is one heck of a destructive defensive lineman. Reggie Nelson, Carlos Dunlap, George Iloka et al are solid starters. Andrew Whitworth is a star tackle finally going to his first Pro Bowl. Andy Dalton’s finally performing at a high level as a quarterback.
Weaknesses: At least he was. Then he got injured. Now last year’s fifth-round pick AJ McCarron has to steer his team through games. He was always going to be at least a game manager, but he has to quickly develop the ability to do more than that (the potential is there). And, for all that this is a well-built roster, outside of Atkins and Green there are no superstars here. That wouldn’t be a problem with early season Dalton quarterbacking, but they might just need to be a tiny bit better to make it.
Will they win it? Doubt it, but stranger things have happened. They’ll need the odd opponent to underperform, and a few of the solid players to have star performances, but the depth is there. Dalton should be back if they win their first game, so a lot will hinge on that.

#4 Seed – Houston
Strengths: JJ Watt and DeAndre Hopkins, basically. Especially Watt, for whom a down year would constitute “not winning Defensive Player of the Year”. He destroys all but the stoutest double-teams, and if he destroys that, he destroys your quarterback to the tune of 17.5 sacks this year. Oh, and he has Whitney Mercilus alongside him, who’s pretty darned good. Hopkins is an elite wide receiver, and no other skill position players on this team come close. He creates separation, he wins contested catches, he’s very reliable.
Weaknesses: Houston won the weakest division in the NFL, and they’re the weakest team in the playoffs. Like Washington, there’s a bucketload of mediocrity here. Without their best offensive linemen (Duane Brown, just this week gone to injured reserve), pass rushers will severely test their perfectly fine but no better quarterback, Brian Hoyer. The cornerbacks are fairly decent, but they’re weak at safety. The running game’s been so-so ever since Arian Foster went on injured reserve, and none of the tight ends are particular threats.
Will they win it? No. There aren’t enough good players, and whereas the roster’s well-coached, that’s not enough. JJ Watt’ll give people scares, Hopkins’ll get a big chunk of yards, but not much else will happen.

#5 Seed – Kansas City
Strengths: The defense is, again, spectacular (noticing a theme with some of these teams?). Star pass rusher Justin Houston’s had a season disrupted by injury and it still hasn’t stopped them. Tamba Hali and Dontari Poe are the stars of the front seven, Eric Berry challenges Harrison Smith for the best safety in the NFL despite being cancer free for less than six months, and cornerback Marcus Peters will probably win Defensive Rookie of the Year. On offense, Jeremy Maclin has finally given them a star at wide receiver.
Weaknesses: The offensive line is only so-so, which is mitigated somewhat by quarterback Alex Smith being a fan of the short pass, but still is a concern. Smith himself isn’t a deep threat, which limits their passing game. In fact, the Chiefs only rank 27th across the league in yards gained on offense, so they’ll have to win attritional battles to progress.
Will they win it? Do you know what, don’t rule it out. My instinct is to say “no way” because they look a bit anaemic on offense, but delve a bit deeper and you see a solid run game and clock control. Andy Reid and Bob Sutton are a great head coach and defensive coordinator and they’re getting the most from this team. Every team will find them tough to beat, and they’ve just won ten on the trot to get here.

#6 Seed – Pittsburgh
Strengths: Offense. Hoooo boy do they love slinging the ball long. When your three wide receivers are the excellent Antonio Brown, the very good Martavis Bryant, and the also good Markus Wheaton, things look good for you. One interesting stat: they’re 8-for-9 this season on fourth down conversions. 89%. The next best is 67%. What does that mean? Uh…not sure, but this team has been putting on offensive splashes every week, so it’s fun to watch at least.
Weaknesses: That defense looks like it could crack at any minute. The secondary is one brainfart away from giving up a touchdown on any pass, it seems. The pass-rush has been so-so. In fact, the defense ranks 21st in yards per game. The real worry though? They’ve run the best fantastically all season, whether with Le’Veon Bell or DeAngelo Williams. But Bell was lost earlier in the season, and Williams is currently a bit knacked. Third choice Fitzgerald Toussaint came in for the last game of the season and was bobbins. If the run game dies, I think Pittsburgh look distinctly beatable.
Will they win it? I just don’t think the defense is good enough. A well-balanced team with a good pass rush and secondary will limit the Steelers on offense, and if that team also has a good passing attack (as several of those teams do), it’s going to be distinctly peaky for Pittsburgh.

2015: Four Games To Go

Aka “Oo-er, it’s nearly playoff time”.

The Carolina Panthers became the first team to clinch a playoff spot this weekend past, beating New Orleans 41-38 to also win the NFC South and stay unbeaten on the season, with 12 wins and 0 losses. Behind them, it’s still uncertain, so let’s have a look at what we’ve got.

A Bit About Who Gets In The Playoffs

To start with, if you don’t know how the playoffs are decided, here’s who gets in:

• The winners of each ‘division’ (e.g. AFC South, NFC West etc)
• The two teams in each ‘conference’ (AFC, NFC) who have the best record (as in, who has won the most games and played against the teams who have, overall, won the most games too), but didn’t win their division.

The playoffs are split between AFC and NFC – if you’re in the NFC, you won’t play anyone in the AFC until the Super Bowl. Within each split, the six teams are seeded, and here’s how the seeding is decided:

• The winners of each division will be seeded 1 to 4, according to who has the best record for the season.
• The two other teams to qualify – known as ‘wildcards’, are seeded 5 and 6, with the team with the better record of the two being seeded 5.

So then you’ve got six teams, and you’ve got them seeded. In the first round of the playoffs, the 3rd seed will host the 6th seed, and the 4th seed will host the 5th seed. In the next round of playoffs, the 1st seed will host whichever of the two previous winners had the lowest seed, with the 2nd seed hosting the other team. The winners of those two play each other in the conference championship game, with the highest remaining seed hosting the game.

Then, of course, the two conference champions play each other in the Superb Owl. Sorry, Super Bowl. Super Bowl.

So, Who’s Getting There From the NFC This Year?

Well, let’s look at the NFC, because it’s probably the easiest to predict. As stated in the introduction, the Panthers (12-0) are there already, and they’ll be joined soon by the Arizona Cardinals (10-2), who have three wins more than anyone else in the NFC West and will probably win two games out of their last four at least to tie it up. In The NFC North, both the Green Bay Packers and the Minnesota Vikings have 8-4 records, but the Packers have a significantly easier schedule than the Vikings, so the smart money’s on them to win that division. The NFC East is just dreadful, though. Washington, the Philadelphia Eagles and the New York Giants all have 5-7 records, with the Dallas Cowboys just one win behind. Any of those teams could win it and secure a playoff spot, but I think I’d lean towards New York, because when they’ve played well, they’ve played better than any other team in the division. They’re just heroically inconsistent.

In terms of who gets the wildcard places in the NFC, the first will be whichever out of Green Bay and Minnesota doesn’t win the division, I’d expect. The other will probably be the Seattle Seahawks, who, if the season ended today, would get that spot. They’ve won more games and are playing better football than the next teams in line (Tampa Bay, Atlanta), so they seem a safe bet. My prediction for the seedings in the NFC are fairly straightforward too, though I fancy Seattle to win 3 or 4 of their remaining games and edge past Minnesota:

1. Carolina Panthers
2. Arizona Cardinals
3. Green Bay Packers
4. New York Giants
5. Seattle Seahawks
6. Minnesota Vikings

And What About the AFC?

The AFC’s a bit more interesting than the NFC, though three teams (New England Patriots, Cincinnati Bengals and Denver Broncos) are 10-2 and coasting towards the playoffs. In the AFC South, both Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans are 6-6 but both have favourable schedules. It’s too close to call, but Indy have already beaten Houston in Houston, and still get to host them in a couple of weeks, so let’s say they’ll win it.

The wildcard places are more fun. Pittsburgh Steelers and Kansas City Chiefs are 7-5 and currently in position to get the places, but Pittsburgh have a couple of very difficult games in the next two weeks, whereas Kansas City’s on sizzling form, their schedule looks friendlier and I think they could easily win 3 or 4 of their last 4 games. The New York Jets are also 7-5, and have a mixed schedule to come, with the week 17 match in Buffalo probably being decisive, as Buffalo Bills aren’t out of it at 6-6, with three games against the NFC East and then the Jets game. So. I’m saying definitely Kansas City, but the last place is a complete guess. Pittsburgh have the recent history of getting to the playoffs, Buffalo have the easiest schedule but need to win more games, and the Jets do have this image of capitulating under pressure. Pittsburgh will probably get it but it seems a boring safe choice, whereas I think Buffalo could well win all four games and squeak it. So, for the actual predictions. Splitting the three teams mentioned first for seeding is tricky, let’s see how this works out:

1. New England Patriots
2. Cincinnati Bengals
3. Denver Broncos
4. Indianapolis Colts
5. Kansas City Chiefs
6. Buffalo Bills

2015 So Far: NFC and AFC West after Week 3

The last of our four looks at the NFL season so far looks at the teams in the NFC and AFC West.

So, starting with the NFC West, the Arizona Cardinals (3-0) are the most surprising of the 3-0 teams so far. Not just because they’re 3-0, but because of how emphatic those three wins have been. The defense has been a turnover-making machine, led by charismatic safety-corner-hybrid Tyrann “The Honey Badger” Mathieu. Carson Palmer is back from his ACL and tearing it up. Larry Fitzgerald is back from apparently the signs of aging and tearing it up like it’s 2008. The only note of caution is that they have beaten three pretty rubbish teams. But hey, look at how emphatically they’ve beaten them! All other teams in the West have losing records, starting with the Rams (1-2), who are pretty much identical to the Rams of the last two years, winning when they should lose, losing when they should win. To wit, they followed a shootout win over Seattle with two anaemic losses to pisspoor Washington, and to a Roethlisberger-less Pittsburgh with a terrible secondary. Todd Gurley’s being eased into action, and the defensive front is still brutal, but there’s little to be excited about. Still, it’s more than the 49ers (1-2), whose one in the win column is a miracle, have. That 20-3 win over the Vikings looks barely believable given blowout losses to the Steelers and Cardinals since. This team is as rubbish as advertised, except maybe worse given Kaepernick’s performance against Arizona, where his first two passes were returned for touchdowns by the opposition. Whoops. The Seahawks (1-2) are listed as last because of tie-breakers but will rise to be at least the second best team in this division, especially now Kam Chancellor’s back to solidify the secondary. Everything felt a bit anaemic those first two games, and though the offensive line still looks beyond woeful, the shutout victory over the Bears at least felt a bit like the old Seattle. It’ll be interesting to see how they progress, because as good as they look, they do look a bit diminished from the last two years.

Skipping over to the interminable AFC West, the Denver Broncos (3-0) continue to be very good, but holy wow is that defense incredible. They might have the best 1-2-3 cornerback combination in the league, and then there’s Von Miller, DeMarcus Ware, the other Brandon Marshall. They are such a pleasantly suffocating surprise. Peyton Manning looked best in week 3 with a more Peyton-flinging-the-ball type game, as we all drown in think pieces about his physical condition. Second are the Raiders (2-1), who- Wait a second. What. The Raiders are 2-1. A winning record? Oh, but look, Derek Carr has become gunsling-y and fun, Amari Cooper is the best rookie WR by a magnitude of about 40, and Khalil Mack is about four times as terrifying this year as he was last. And he was terrifying last. I don’t think Oakland have the depth to keep this up, but the NFL is cyclic and it’s nice to see perennially terrible teams get better to demonstrate this. Plus I have Latavius Murray in fantasy (sorry!) and didn’t want to pick him so I’m super-grateful he’s running well. The Chargers (1-2) yet again lack that comfort, as first-round pick Melvin Gordon has yet to find his groove. He might get there this season, but he’ll have to do some behind a weak offensive line that’s disrputed Philip Rivers’ rhythm something chronic. Rivers looked good throwing to Keenan Allen in Week 3, but the game was already lost, and the team missed Ladarius Green. The Chargers have been fun these last couple of years, but between that anaemic O and nondescript D, the same can’t be said this year. And the same can never be said for the Chiefs (1-2), who zzzzzZZZzzzZZzz. Just kidding. For every fun player, the Chiefs have about twelve who are not. Travis Kelce, Jamaal Charles, Justin Houston, Tamba Hali, and a boring roster. Alex Smith is playing like the worst kind of Alex Smith, just about reliable enough but nowhere near threatening enough, and now that he’s got his big new contract, Chiefs fans are starting to pine for someone a little more exciting.

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2015 Previews: NFC West

The NFC West has sent a team to the Super Bowl in each of the last three years. There’s a decent chance it does so again this year.

Seattle Seahawks

Last Year: 12-4 and oh, that Super Bowl loss. Oh.

Which Way Are They Going: They won’t post a worse regular season record, and could well end up in another Super Bowl, or at least an NFC Championship game.

What’s Good: The Seahawks have won a reputation as having the greatest defense in the NFL, and whether they do or not, it’s pretty amazing. What impresses most is that it’s pretty much at all eleven positions across the defense. The secondary has Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor (if he ever stops holding out). All three are among the best. Don’t be surprised if Cary Williams is good this year too. At linebacker, KJ Wright and Bobby Wagner are very good, and Bruce Irvin is pretty damn impressive too. Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril rushing from the line are dangerous too every quarterback. It’s really rare to see this kind of team building, where every position can be filled.

What’s Possibly Good But Might Not Be: Russell Wilson’s passing stats. Wilson will always achieve more than his stats possess because firstly, people forget rushing stats, and secondly, he seems to have impeccable timing as to when in game he pulls out that high-pressure play. He might pass the ball for more yards this year, with Jimmy Graham there to catch anything thrown this way. This Saints fan says please Seattle cherish Jimmy. I miss you Jimmy. But yeah, Russell Wilson is Russell Wilson, so you know, he might only end up with 40 receptions or something. That’d be sad.

What’s Definitely Not Good: The offensive line, eeesh. Russell Wilson’s exactly the quarterback you’d want with a sub-par offensive line, but it’s still not exactly ideal. Their one quality starter, pro-bowl center Max Unger, is now on the Saints. Outside of him, Russell Okung at left tackle’s the only one you’d file as “half decent”. Excellent, bruising running back Marshawn Lynch is going to have to run over even more defenders this year if he’s going to rack up those yards.

Anything Else: BRING BACK THE GREEN UNIFORMS. Or at least, put some more green on them. Don’t be ashamed of that lurid, luminous green colour. Can see the Seahawks actually going up to 13-3 and posting the best overall record this year.

Arizona Cardinals

Last Year: 11-5

Which Way Are They Going: Down, despite the fact I think they’ll be a better team this year, they’ll end up with a worse regular season record.

What’s Good: There’s a lot to like about this team, but the coach is perhaps number 1. Bruce Arians simply hasn’t had a head coaching season that’s fallen below “excellent”. His interim spell in Indianapolis went for 9-3, and he’s gone 10-6 and 11-5 with Cardinals teams that on paper looked medicore. He revitalised Carson Palmer (before his ACL tear last year), and his team don’t always look to play very well, but they win.

What’s Possibly Good But Might Not Be: A lot of this team falls into this camp, but I’m going to focus on Andre Ellington. He looks about as weedy as running backs come, but he’s gained plenty of yards, and looked great in 2013 taking workload from Rashard Mendenhall. The Cardinals have drafted David Johnson, and I suspect they’ll share the workload. Hopefully, that should keep both of them a little fresher and make them more dangerous, rather than getting worn down like it seemed like Ellington was at times last year.

What’s Definitely Not Good: Something always looks a bit…skew-whiff about the Cardinals. I don’t know if it’s a swathe of underappreciated, under-reported players, but there’s not a great deal that stands out. I mean, Calais Campbell and Patrick Peterson on defense and Larry Fitzgerald are very-well known, and very very good. I’m not always convinced some of the other players exist. Just what exactly is an “Alex Okafor” or an “A.Q. Shipley”? And I don’t know what a “Frostee Rucker” is, but I bet it’s the best damn dessert on the menu.

Anything Else: That last section was mean and unnecessary, I’m sorry. The Cardinals have always just kind of passed me by when following the NFL. This is why I’m some know-nothing blogger and not, you know, someone making a living writing about the NFL. I think the Cardinals will go 9-7.

St Louis Rams

Last Year: 6-10

Which Way Are They Going: Up a bit.

What’s Good: The defense is solid, but the front of it is fantastic. Aaron Donald was Defensive Rookie of the Year for a reason, Robert Quinn is insanely terrifying, and Chris Long is still damn good. They signed Nick Fairley this season, just as he’s starting to grow into his ability. At some point, the Rams are going to have something like an eleven-man defensive front and just literally eat the opposing offense. Literally. There will be limbs chewed and swallowed everywhere. Oh no wait, I meant metaphorically. My mistake.

What’s Possibly Good But Might Not Be: Brian Quick, who was picked at the top of the second round a few years ago, had two anonymous seasons then started to break out last year, recording 322 yards and 3 touchdowns over the first four games – reasonable numbers! Then he went quiet for a couple of games, and then had a season- and nearly career-ending shoulder injury. St Louis have been desperately hunting for a number 1 receiver for what seems like ages. Tavon Austin is definitely not that, nor is Kenny Britt, Stedman Bailey, or Chris Givens. In fairness, Brian Quick probably isn’t, but he’s got the most ability and was sort of starting to translate that into actual achievement last season. I’m kind of rooting for him, and I don’t know why. Maybe the name.

What’s Definitely Not Good. There is far far too much mediocrity in this team. Nick Foles’ weird 2013 when he threw 27 TDs and 2 INTs looks so far from his season last season. The secondary is full of at-best-middling players like Janoris Jenkins. The wide receivers and tight ends are mostly anonymous, and it’s a “pick which one will lead the team with 53 receiving yards this week” situation. And their 1st round pick running back is only just starting to practice after tearing his ACL before the draft! If he’s not fit, never fear, we have more mediocre running backs waiting in the wings.

Anything Else: Those alternate kits are beautiful, by the way. Blue and yellow’s such a great combination. Elsewhere, this team is either moving to Los Angeles, or is going to be driven to further irrelevancy by an owner who doesn’t really care. That said, I can see the Rams winning 7 or 8 this year.

San Francisco 49ers

Last Year: 8-8

Which Way Are They Going: Down. No team is making a bigger leap backwards than the 49ers.

What’s Good: Navarro Bowman is back! He’s a very good linebacker! That’s good.

What’s Possibly Good But Might Not Be: We’ve all enjoyed rugby league crossover star Jarryd Hayn’e ridiculous punt and kick returns. He made the roster! He might even play some!

What’s Definitely Not Good: Everything else. First, Jim Harbaugh was forced out by the general manager. Harbaugh took a team that had not won more than 8 games in a season for 8 seasons, and got them 13-3, 11-4-1, 12-4 and 8-8 seasons. His replacement is a defensive line coach (not even a co-ordinator) with zero experience and no clue at how to talk to the media. This is a bad sign. Second, everybody on this team seems to have retired. Justin Smith retiring at the age of 35 isn’t surprising. Patrick Willis retiring at the age of 30 is a bit more surprising, but he had long-term injuries, so there you go. Chris Borland retiring after one season? Yikes. Anthony Davis retiring at the age of 25? Crikey. Thirdly, they kind of lost a bit in free agency. Both their starting cornerbacks left, most notably. They’ve moved 40 miles out of San Francisco. And it just all feels so catastrophic. Colin Kaepernick kept getting worse and worse last season, he hangs on to the ball so long of course he’s going to end up sacked lots.

Anything Else: There are actually a surprising number of good players still on this team. Joe Staley is an excellent left tackle, and with Daniel Kilgore and Alex Boone, there’s a lot of a fairly good offensive line there. Antoine Bethea is pretty good too. But it just feels like so much has gone from this team, from the exciting if unbearable head coach leaving to having the best linebacking corps in the league disappearing. The quality of this roster suggests a lot better, but the general aura surrounding the team only says 3 or 4 wins.